General Discussion

swag

(26,490 posts) Mon Jun 25, 2018, 11:10 AM Jun 2018

Stock market performance under Obama/Trump as of Friday's close

Update: For Fun, Stock Market as Barometer of Policy Success (Calculated Risk)

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2018/06/update-for-fun-stock-market-as.html

Excerpt:

"Note: I don't think the stock market is a great measure of policy performance, but some people do - and I'm having a little fun with them.

There are some observers who think the stock market is the key barometer of policy success. My view is there are many measures of success - and that the economy needs to work well for a majority of the people - not just stock investors.

However, for example, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin was on CNBC on Feb 22, 2017, and was asked if the stock market rally was a vote of confidence in the new administration, he replied: "Absolutely, this is a mark-to-market business, and you see what the market thinks."

And Larry Kudlow wrote in 2007: A Stock Market Vote of Confidence for Bush: "I have long believed that stock markets are the best barometer of the health, wealth and security of a nation. And today's stock market message is an unmistakable vote of confidence for the president."

. . .

For fun, here is a graph comparing S&P500 returns (ex-dividends) under Presidents Trump and Obama:

Blue is for Mr. Obama, Orange is for Mr. Trump.

At this point, the S&P500 is up 21.3% under Mr. Trump - compared to up 36.0% under Mr. Obama for the same number of market days."

6 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

Stock market performance under Obama/Trump as of Friday's close (Original Post) swag Jun 2018 OP

"the economy needs to work well for a majority of the people - not just stock investors" lagomorph777 Jun 2018 #1

But his supporters on tv and the radio say " this economy is the best in the last two years". kimbutgar Jun 2018 #2

For more fun empedocles Jun 2018 #3

Yet, trump's approval on handling the economy is improving. Beats me why. Hoyt Jun 2018 #4

Looking Over A Longer Period. . . ProfessorGAC Jun 2018 #5

I can't believe I am typing these words dsc Jun 2018 #6

lagomorph777

(30,613 posts)

1. "the economy needs to work well for a majority of the people - not just stock investors"

Reply to swag (Original post)

Mon Jun 25, 2018, 11:22 AM

Jun 2018

Why is it so hard get this point through the skulls of TV talking heads?

Rhetorical question of course.

Silly rabbit, the economy is for billionaires!

kimbutgar

(21,285 posts)

2. But his supporters on tv and the radio say " this economy is the best in the last two years".

Reply to swag (Original post)

Mon Jun 25, 2018, 11:27 AM

Jun 2018

One said” best economy in my lifetime.” And the funniest ever, “he has accomplished more than any presidents i this countries history”! ( I almost got in a car wreck hearing that one)

Facts don’t matter to Twitler supporters.

empedocles

(15,751 posts)

3. For more fun

Reply to swag (Original post)

Mon Jun 25, 2018, 11:29 AM

Jun 2018

you might post a 'logarithmic chart', [more emphasis might show]. Thanks for posting.

Hoyt

(54,770 posts)

4. Yet, trump's approval on handling the economy is improving. Beats me why.

Reply to swag (Original post)

Mon Jun 25, 2018, 11:43 AM

Jun 2018

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/25/majority-of-americans-approve-of-trumps-handling-of-the-economy.html

ProfessorGAC

(65,427 posts)

5. Looking Over A Longer Period. . .

Reply to swag (Original post)

Mon Jun 25, 2018, 11:55 AM

Jun 2018

. . .the trendline is nearly identical. Using 4 years under BHO as the basis, the last 15 months (5 quarters) is within the 95% confidence interval of the predicted performance under Obama. It is below the trend line of that 48 month baseline, and the slope is slightly less steep, but also within the 95% CI.

IOW, there is no policy basis for claiming things are doing better than they were before.

dsc

(52,173 posts)

6. I can't believe I am typing these words

Reply to swag (Original post)

Mon Jun 25, 2018, 12:08 PM

Jun 2018

but in fairness to Trump the market was already high when he took over so his improvement is actually more impressive than Obama's who took over a low value market. The market has gone up at a steeper rate than that Obama has at the end of his years. But, the main if not the only, reason for that is the tax cut which let companies buy back stock thus inflating the price. In short, Trump has improved the performance of stocks short term but has done so at the price of long term financial footing. Obama improved stocks by making the underlying economy better.

Reply to this discussion