The economy can only go down from here. The number of revelations from Robert Mueller can only go up.

But that doesn’t mean a Democratic candidate is a shoo-in for 2020—everyone thought Donald Trump faced too many hurdles to win in the first place, too. The Democrats who are about to launch presidential campaigns can tell themselves Trump looks weak now, but this could be just the midpoint in his reordering of American politics in his image.

Before any Democrats can get to Trump, though, they’ll have to get through the “Why not me?” primary—the next 14 months of scramble and mania, set against a primary-calendar shake-up that for the first time has delegate-heavy California and Texas both voting at the beginning of March, which will make it so candidates have to campaign for those millions of much more diverse votes in order to have a chance of locking up the nomination. The only thing that’s clear so far: The early polls being circulated will likely have as much relevance to the outcome of the race as learning Mandarin does to visiting Algeria.

Within weeks from now, the 2020 Democratic-primary race will be at full force. Here are 10 factors that will define it—and make it unlike any that have come before.