the Cult of Individual 1.

This will especially be true among the Trump-poor group, who are used to getting disproportionate refunds because they meet the income threshold and have a lot of kids.

I try to swing it so I break even. It'll be interesting to see if I managed that this year.

I maintain a spreadsheet that essentially mimics a 1040 form, so I plugged in my projected income, new standard deduction, elimination of personal exemptions, and new tax rates.

My OP sounded the alarm that people were not going to see much, if any positive impact on their tax situation.

I got slightly more in my paycheck, but my refund amount decreased. It was pretty much a wash. They were real sneaky bastards when they contrived this plan. Removing the personal exemption hurts. The raising of the standard deduction makes it next to impossible (for me anyway) to itemize. Also, the increase in the standard deduction makes it that much harder to itemize medical expenses.

Many people didn't realize that small pay check increase they got immediately following enactment of the law would either lower their refund at tax time or increase the amount they owe. We heard a lot about the $10K SALT limit for folks in states like CA, NY an NJ. Millions will be surprised to find that they too will be impacted that don't live in high tax states. I live in IN and will exceed the $10K SALT limit.

This is their own "Christmas bonus" they give to themselves. My wife and I were talking about this yesterday. A lot of people who should know better overpay taxes during the year because they like that check coming in just after New Years. I'd guess a lot of people count on it to pay credit card bills or maybe for other things.

I screwed my withholding up (actually HR did) so we should have a nice lump coming to us. We're talking two small vacations. We don't make a ton of money but we are unlike a vast majority of people who can't cover a sudden expense of $400 - the percentage is way worse if the sudden expense is $1,000.