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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsFrom a civil engineer: the wall cost exceeds 50 bln & can not be completed in trump's lifetime.
From a Houston-based civil engineer, shared on FB.
Howdy.
To recap: Im a licensed structural and civil engineer with a MS in structural engineering from the top program in the nation and over a decade of experience on high-performance projects, and particularly of cleaning up design disasters where the factors werent properly accounted for, and Im an adjunct professor of structural analysis and design at UH-Downtown. I have previously been deposed as an expert witness in matters regarding proper construction of walls and the various factors associated therein, and my testimony has passed Daubert.
Am I a wall expert? I am. I am literally a court-accepted expert on walls.
Structurally and civil engineering-wise, the border wall is not a feasible project. Trump did not hire engineers to design the thing. He solicited bids from contractors, not engineers. This means its not been designed by professionals. Its a disaster of numerous types waiting to happen.
What disasters?
Off the top of my head...
1) It will mess with our ability to drain land in flash flooding. Anything impeding the ability of water to get where it needs to go (doesnt matter if there are holes in the wall or whatever) is going to dramatically increase the risk of flooding.
2) Messes with all kind of stuff ecologically. For all other projects, we have to do an Environmental Site Assessment, which is arduous. Theyre either planning to circumvent all this, or they havent accounted for it yet, because thats part of the design process, and this thing hasnt been designed.
3) The prototypes they came up with are nearly impossible to build or dont actually do the job. This article explains more:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.engineering.com/amp/17599.html
And so on.
The estimates provided for the cost are arrived at unreasonably. You can look for yourself at the two-year-old estimate that you see everyone citing.
http://fronterasdesk.org/sites/default/files/field/docs/2016/07/Bernstein-%20The%20Trump%20Wall.pdf
It does not account for rework, complexities beyond the prototype design, factors to prevent flood and environmental hazard creation, engineering redesign... Its going to be higher than $50bn. The contractors will hit the government with near CONSTANT change orders. Cost overrun will be the name of the game. It will not be completed in Trumps lifetime.
Im a structural forensicist, which means Im called in when things go wrong. This is a project that WILL go wrong. When projects go wrong, the original estimates are just *obliterated*. And when that happens, good luck getting it fixed, because there arent that many forensicists out there to right the ship, particularly not that are willing to work on a border wall project a large quotient of us are immigrants, and besides, we cant afford to bid on jobs that are this political. Were small firms, and were already busy, and we dont gamble our reputations on political footballs. So youd end up with a revolving door of contractors making a giant, uncoordinated muddle of things, and itd generally be a mess. Good money after bad. The GAO agrees with me.
And it wont be effective. I could, right now, purchase a 32 foot extension ladder and weld a cheap custom saddle for the top of the proposed wall so that I can get over it. I dont know who they talked to about the wall design and its efficacy, but it sure as heck wasnt anybody with any engineering imagination.
Another thing: we are not far from the day where inexpensive drones will be able to pick up and carry someone. This will happen in the next ten years, and its folly to think that the coyotes who ferry people over the border wont purchase or create them. Theyre low enough, quiet enough, and small enough to quickly zip people over any wall we could build undetected with our current monitoring setup.
Lets have border security, by all means, but lets be smart about it. This is not smart. Its not effective. Its NOT cheap. The returns will be diminishing as technology advances, too. This is a ridiculous idea that will never be successfully executed and, as such, would be a monumental waste of money. 🤷🏻?♀️
This is set to public. Have a blast sharing it.
tanyev
(42,677 posts)Caliman73
(11,760 posts)This is mainly political. Trump desperately needs to keep a high profile campaign promise. He is also trying to use the "foot in the door" technique putting the government on the hook for 5.7 billion to start, then we just have to keep going otherwise the money is just wasted.
I am sure that he has some cronies waiting on that 5 billion, but that is small potatoes. He wants to drag the government into a 100 billion dollar plus boondoggle so that he can brag to his racist, xenophobic little base, and impress Hannity.
mahina
(17,770 posts)tanyev
(42,677 posts)You know if any sections of wall ever do get built there will soon be stories of missing money, substandard materials and shoddy workmanship.
mahina
(17,770 posts)Grift-wise.
mahina
(17,770 posts)dalton99a
(81,708 posts)mahina
(17,770 posts)smirkymonkey
(63,221 posts)As always, the biggest argument against this wall is that it is simply a stupid, ineffective, ridiculously expensive idea.
It is pointless. There is no point in debating this any further.
mahina
(17,770 posts)air traffic controllers are not being paid!
Mr.Bill
(24,373 posts)of the next Democratic President to tear down what they do build.
House of Roberts
(5,199 posts)Technology will render the wall obsolete.
Oneironaut
(5,547 posts)All Trump cares about is 2020. Why? Because he's amassing power and wealth. He knows that, as long as people think he's building a wall, he'll be okay. It doesn't matter if it's ever finished, or if it will ever work.
mahina
(17,770 posts)GReedDiamond
(5,319 posts)...and fuck Motherfucker and his enablers, particularly McConnell.
NCjack
(10,279 posts)P.G. Hall's famous book "Great Planning Disasters" (1982; ISBN 0520046072) is written, The Trump Wall (if started) will be Chapter 1. Here is what I recall about the book.
Engineering projects "designed" by politicians and bureaucrats (incompetents and liars) and turned over to contractors for construction have these important characteristics: a) the minimum cost overrun is a factor 7x; b) the completion dates are constantly extended by years.
The case studies in the book are: a) London's Third Airport;, b) London's Motorways; c) The Anglo-French Concorde, d) San Francisco's BART System, e) Sydney's Opera House, and f) Two Near-Diasters: California's New Campuses and Britain's National Library.
mahina
(17,770 posts)I flunked calculus, and that was that. Hats off to all math and science folks.
The original poster lives and teaches in Texas.
Do you think I should make that clearer in my post?
NCjack
(10,279 posts)office or the House Appropriations Cmte.
Thank you for the OP.
mahina
(17,770 posts)sprinkleeninow
(20,270 posts)lay people.
We know it's a stupid 'idee' from mr. dumass, but with this specific and expert layout, WOW!
sprinkleeninow
(20,270 posts)Never discount ahead of time that it's pointless.
Never know when their light bulbs will turn on.