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jcgoldie

(11,658 posts)
Mon Jan 14, 2019, 11:05 AM Jan 2019

538 on electability of leading Democratic contenders in the Democratic primaries...

I think this is good analysis. It hits on what appealed to me about Beto from the start, potentially bringing in 2 of the 5 groups in the Democratic base that have traditionally been more or less reticent about showing up on election day depending on the candidate (Millenials and Hispanics). As the title suggests it shows Harris' strengths in a primary fight that I had not fully considered.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-kamala-and-beto-have-more-upside-than-joe-and-bernie/

The emphasis in this is all on the primaries of course and who can get the nomination. But for my thought process we need to layer this with the simple question: who beats Trump in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania? That may be what's most important.

9 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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538 on electability of leading Democratic contenders in the Democratic primaries... (Original Post) jcgoldie Jan 2019 OP
Harris 2020! ProudLib72 Jan 2019 #1
Good article Freddie Jan 2019 #2
Casey jcgoldie Jan 2019 #3
He is TexasBushwhacker Jan 2019 #4
I was disappointed in that Freddie Jan 2019 #6
Harris and O'Rourke are my top candidates going in to this. Adrahil Jan 2019 #5
He didn't even rate Gabbard. WhiteTara Jan 2019 #7
I don't think Gabbard was on anyone's radar TexasBushwhacker Jan 2019 #8
So, if we used this methodology, a Kamala Harris/Bernie Sanders ticket pretty much gets everyone Algernon Moncrieff Jan 2019 #9

Freddie

(9,281 posts)
2. Good article
Mon Jan 14, 2019, 11:30 AM
Jan 2019

Not sure where I read this but they called Biden the “HRC of 2020” - the expected establishment candidate with a few too many ties to big $$$ and not enough appeal to younger voters. Couldn’t agree more.
How to win Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania? Choose Sen. Bob Casey as running mate. He just won re-election by a landslide in this purple state. Harris/Casey would be an winning ticket.

TexasBushwhacker

(20,254 posts)
4. He is
Mon Jan 14, 2019, 11:45 AM
Jan 2019

Not to the point of voting to defund Planned Parenthood, but he did vote for the 20 week abortion restriction, which makes him SOL in my book.

Freddie

(9,281 posts)
6. I was disappointed in that
Mon Jan 14, 2019, 12:28 PM
Jan 2019

I think he walks a fine line here. Part of the reason he’s so popular in this very Catholic state is he’s “pro-life”, but if you read his FB page he’s a huge advocate of reducing the number of abortions via contraception, education and support for families. He supports PP, for which he got many evil comments on his page. He’s never introduced any anti-choice legislation. He seems to be a Tim Kaine - Joe Biden style of “pro-life” which is fine with me and may help us in elections.

 

Adrahil

(13,340 posts)
5. Harris and O'Rourke are my top candidates going in to this.
Mon Jan 14, 2019, 11:57 AM
Jan 2019

But subject to change, based on performance on the trail.

I love Joe Biden, but I can't see him taking this. Still, he's be a great President.

Bernie? LOL, GTFO, Bernie.

Klobuchar? Don;t know much about her. I'll be listening.

Gillebrand? Nope. Next!

Warren? A firebrand. I like her. But I do not think she will have the broad appeal he needs.

Booker? I'm interested. But he comes off a little more slick than I'd like. If he runs, I will give him a hard look.

Castro? I like him. I don't think he stands a chance.

Brown? A little too stuck on some old fashioned views of international trade. He has expressed some support for Trump's tariffs. Maybe Veep material. But he might be the only Democrat that can hold an Ohio Senate seat right now, and that's important.

WhiteTara

(29,736 posts)
7. He didn't even rate Gabbard.
Mon Jan 14, 2019, 01:08 PM
Jan 2019

I think his analysis is spot on to my thinking. I see Kamala Harris and Beto as her running mate. I think it would be a grand ticket and administration. We might be able to clean House and Senate along with all the government agencies. Especially in the Treasury where they have brought in Russian moles.

TexasBushwhacker

(20,254 posts)
8. I don't think Gabbard was on anyone's radar
Mon Jan 14, 2019, 01:29 PM
Jan 2019

I think he went with the folks that had announced or that people were talking about as possibilities. Gabbard kind of declared out of left (or right) field. She's a non-starter as far as I'm concerned. So is Gillibrand IMHO.

Algernon Moncrieff

(5,798 posts)
9. So, if we used this methodology, a Kamala Harris/Bernie Sanders ticket pretty much gets everyone
Mon Jan 14, 2019, 01:44 PM
Jan 2019
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