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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsWhy Trump Will Lose in 2020. Our base is bigger than his base
With several major Democratic primary candidates having declared, the palace intrigue of Americas 2020 presidential election is already in nearly full swing. But what if I were to tell you that barring a significant unforeseen shock to the system, the outcome of 2020 is already set in stone?
The high levels of hyperpartisanship and polarization in the electorate have profoundly affected the political behavior of Americans and, by extension, made the outcome of our elections highly predictable.
Always powerful, partisanship has become the be-all and end-all for American voters. With these political dynamics, a person accused of sexual misconduct against teenage girls and young women can run for and win upward of 90 percent of his partys vote as the Republican Roy Moore did, according to exit polls, in the special Senate election in Alabama in 2017.
Yet a key aspect of polarization has been somewhat overlooked: negative partisanship. Voters with this attitude are mobilized not by love of their own party so much as by hatred of the opposition party. Negative partisanship especially benefits the party that doesnt hold the presidency, because out-party voters find themselves living in a world where their political preferences are under constant assault, or at least appear to be so.
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https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/24/opinion/trump-2020-election.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage
beachbum bob
(10,437 posts)JenniferJuniper
(4,516 posts)They are clearing the way for Pence.
pangaia
(24,324 posts)Thanks.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,719 posts)Cosmocat
(14,588 posts)once there is a D nominee, the right wing WILL gin up some absolutely bullshit and scream their bloody heads off, and the media WILL enable it.
I mean, John Kerry was wounded in actual battle and a decorated vet, and he got swiftboated ...
Gore was cast as a lying elite.
Hillary, Dean ...
Hell, BHO got hammed for a month and a half for not wearing a flag pin on his lapel.
MrGrieves
(315 posts)They need to be looked on as an anti-American group.
Cosmocat
(14,588 posts)1,000,000 percent agree.
They have always been america hating scumbags, but this needs to the the rallying point for democrats moving forward.
N_E_1 for Tennis
(9,800 posts)2019 is the loser year.
MrGrieves
(315 posts)There is one thing that can keep us from winning.... The spoiler.
A third party that pulls votes from the democratic candidate would sink us.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,719 posts)"Presidential-cycle electorates are better for Democrats than midterm electorates are, and the third-party share in 2018 was also at its lowest levels in decades."
MrGrieves
(315 posts)I don't trust 3rd party candidates.
Wounded Bear
(58,778 posts)FakeNoose
(32,908 posts)... but it's harder to motivate liberals and left-leaning people to vote. Especially the younger ones - and we've been too lax about reaching out to make them realize how important this is. I think the tide is turning though. I sure hope it is, because we can't hold on much longer.
kimbutgar
(21,278 posts)Why waste your time standing in long lines. Ive heard several people say that. The primary reason why repukes make it difficult to vote.
MANative
(4,113 posts)Base. That's a factor we can't ignore.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,719 posts)Renew Deal
(81,899 posts)or electability.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,719 posts)I don't believe the professor is making that assumption.
Renew Deal
(81,899 posts)I think there is at least a 50% chance that Trump will not be the nominee. We should be prepared to run the best candidate possible that can win.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,719 posts)The difference is there is no Reagan and no Ford. Their candidate will likely be dreadful. The Republican's Faustian bargain came with a cost. I don't see Trump as a "go gently into the good night" type of guy. Who knows what horrors he will inflict on our country on the way out? What if he urges his acolytes to take to the streets? Even if a small fraction do there will be civil unrest, not seen in decades.
athena
(4,187 posts)that Democrats will do our best to destroy whichever candidate appears to be winning the primaries. At this time four years ago, HRC looked like a sure thing. Im sorry, but considering at some of the posts I see on DU attacking some of our strongest candidates, I believe Russian trolls are already hard at work. I am not going to take anything for granted.
Oneironaut
(5,543 posts)Of course, it doesn't help that many Democratic area have long poll lines, etc.