Down goes the Grieve amendment

This one from a Labour MP

There are more than a dozen amendments.

More details here
https://www.vox.com/world/2019/1/28/18200666/brexit-parliament-vote-amendments-brady-cooper

The UK Parliament will vote Tuesday in an attempt to gain more control over the Brexit process. They will do this by putting forth a series of amendments that could shift power away from Prime Minister Theresa May’s government and back to members of Parliament when it comes to how, and maybe when, the UK breaks up with the European Union.

That’s the plan, at least. Whether Parliament will succeed, and which faction will prevail — the hardline pro-Brexit camp, or those who’d prefer a softer Brexit (or none at all) — are both open questions.

More than a dozen amendments have been proposed so far. More can still be introduced, and many will probably get withdrawn before the vote because they won’t have a chance in passing Parliament. Even amendments that could succeed — including a fairly popular amendment proposed by the opposition Labour Party that would delay Brexit if a deal isn’t approved end of February — are going to be very, very tight votes.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1017530018

This is the big Remainer hope. The amendment, proposed by Dame Caroline Spelman, calls for a no deal Brexit to be ruled out

Current Procedure on Divisions

The basic system dates from 1906. The rules are now embodied in Standing Orders 38-41.

When a motion is put to the vote, the Speaker (or a deputy) says:
"The Question is, that ... [for example, the Bill be read a second time]. As many as are of that opinion say Aye", (there then follows a chorus of shouted Ayes), "of the contrary No" (a similar shout of No)..... "I think the Ayes have it...".

If there then follow shouts of No, the Speaker calls the division by announcing "Clear the Lobbies". The division bells throughout the building ring, the annunciators display "Division" and the police direct all Strangers to leave the vicinity of the Members' Lobby; they also walk through the public rooms of the House shouting "Division". Members empty out from the cafeterias, offices, libraries, bars and terrace and make their way to the Chamber, where, for divisions taking place on party lines, whips are on duty to remind the uncertain which way (if any) their party is voting. Meanwhile, the clerks who take the names of those voting will have reached the high desks provided for them, and will have ready the large alphabetical lists of Members' names, on which the marks are made recording the votes.

The exit doors from the Lobbies will be locked during this time, except to admit the clerks. There are now 3 desks in each lobby; the Government's large majority at the 1997 General Election made necessary the addition of one extra desk and Clerk to each lobby, enabling a larger number of Members to vote in the same lobby more quickly.

Tellers
Tellers are appointed by each side, and their names are given to the occupant of the Chair. Two minutes after the original "The Question is..." (timed by an interval timer on the Clerks' table) the Speaker again puts the question. If challenged by the tellers or other Members he says "The Ayes to the Right, the Noes to the Left: tellers for the Ayes, Mr A and Mr B, tellers for the Noes, Mr C and Mrs D". Should the further question not be challenged or four Tellers not be named, the Speaker announces "The Ayes (or Noes) have it" and the division is called off; the Annunciators then state "Division off". Where a division takes place at a predetermined time or more than one division takes place in succession, the Speaker has discretion to put the question again after a period of less than two minutes.

Assuming the division is on, when the tellers are ready, the exit doors are opened, and the counting process begins. This involves the recording of names by the Clerks and the counting by Divisions by the tellers. Eight minutes after the original question, the Speaker orders "Lock the doors", and the doorkeepers lock the three entrances to each lobby. The last occupant of each lobby, usually a whip, announces "all out" and the tellers give the figures to the clerks at the Table.

Announcing the result
When both lobbies have been counted, and the figures entered on a card, this is given to the senior Teller for the majority. The Tellers then line up just beyond the Table, with the tellers for the majority to the Speaker's left. Then, bowing to the Speaker, they advance; and the Teller standing near the Opposition despatch box announces the numbers. A Clerk, standing by the despatch box, takes the card to the Speaker who reads the figures again, and then announces, "So the Ayes (or Noes) have it". The result is displayed on the annunciators and the Speaker, after calling the House to order, moves on to the next business. The Division List is sent to Hansard and to the Editorial Supervisor of the Vote for printing.

Whips (official or unofficial) might display a notice reading, for instance, "Another Division expected" or "No more votes till 7pm", although it is more common nowadays for the whip to tell Members as they vote. Members on both sides of the House use the certain knowledge that colleagues, however senior, are likely to be in the division lobby, as an opportunity to exchange messages and information; this is one reason why electronic voting has not yet been taken up.

Time taken by divisions
The time allowance used to be two minutes, at one time measured by a large hourglass manipulated by the clerks at the Table. This was increased to six, and then to eight minutes when the Norman Shaw Buildings, some distance away on Victoria Embankment, were occupied in March 1975. The eight minutes are nowadays measured by an electronic interval timer.

A division rarely takes less than ten minutes and sometimes takes more than fifteen. In the nineteenth century, with a House of over 700 including Irish Members, twenty minute divisions were not unusual. The average length of a division was calculated to be 11 minutes 30 seconds: it has not changed significantly over the last ten or so years. If Members loiter in the lobby as a means of delaying business the Speaker may send the Serjeant at Arms to investigate.

https://www.parliament.uk/documents/commons-information-office/p09.pdf

Gosh that was close !!!

At the end of the day, she's a goner. She cannot survive regardless of the outcome.

not in her future !

They need to resolve how that election was stolen. The results defied most predictions.

So she is stuck standing watching the gallows being built.

accept it, where as the Brady amendment is going to be laughed at by the EU, and will go nowhere. At that point, she can't take a no deal Brexit and can't take the Withdrawal Agreement without going back to Parliament.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/29/amendments-to-may-statement-brexit-bill

Sure, it makes her look bad if she ignores it. We get to blame her if it ends up a no deal Brexit. But it doesn't force the DUP or any Tories to vote 'no confidence' in her. The best it does is give ammunition in a 2022 election that says "why is this country screwed? Because the Tories let May screw things up, even after parliament told her not to".

It's not actually May who needs to accept the 'no deal' motion; it's the Tories who voted down the negotiated deal. If we can't renegotiate a deal, and no-one can ask for an extension to get MPs to see reason, then it's the already-negotiated deal, or no deal.

has no road in trying to get rid of the backstop, no sooner than that last amendment passed, the EU issued a slapdown.

Link to tweet

May is trying to run down the clock so that her deal is the only option, apart from another referendum, because of that No deal amendment.

Link to tweet

The reality is that there's no way a majority of MPs would vote to remain. Hell, we couldn't even get a majority to get ready to extend the negotiation period.

"She has no road in trying to get rid of the backstop, no sooner than that last amendment passed, the EU issued a slapdown."
"May is trying to run down the clock so that her deal is the only option, apart from another referendum, because of that No deal amendment."

Another referendum is not going to happen. Again, they wouldn't even vote to think about extending negotiations. Yes, tonight's votes help her run the clock down. And the EU won't reopen negotiations. So it's the negotiated deal, or 'no deal', but MPs don't want 'no deal' either. So it's the negotiated deal.

I've consistently said from the morning of the result of the June 2016 Referendum that some way, some how, they would have a second referendum. There's lots more to play out here, and don't forget that many things May has said no to, she then reversed course on. If the No deal Brexit is ruled out, May will be counting on Brexiters flipping to her deal as a last resort but I have my doubts that they will in any great numbers. May's plan is the worst of both worlds for Leave and Remain, although great for those of us in Ireland, ironically. I think they will take their chances at a 2nd Referendum to force their way out. Listening to James O'Brien today, he thinks that Brexiters are already setting a new narrative of lies, if/when May calls a second referendum.

'No deal' is not ruled out; this just says parliament doesn't want it. They also didn't want to make it possible to extend the period before leaving - which would be necessary for a second referendum. There's no indication anyone beyond the Lib Dems are pushing for another referendum. It would require a complete change of policy not only for May's government (from which there'd be loads of resignations if she suggested it), but also from Labour. And then they'd have to get the laws through before March 29th. And persuade every country in the EU that this would solve things, so that they all agree to the extension.

I think it's more likely that Corbyn will extract a woolly commitment to worker and environmental protections, and then say "with a heavy heart" he'll tell Labour to support the May-EU deal, and will then try to get all of the current Labour proposals as the final trade relationship with the EU, which still needs to be negotiated. Knowing that the backstop gets him something close to that anyway.

They are headed for a no deal exit. No time to do a new vote.

So in a year, when their economy is exploding, Northern Ireland has a return to massive violence, and May has resigned, then what is the plan?

A joke, and going nowhere.

LONDON — Prime Minister Theresa May of Britain survived a critical vote in Parliament on Tuesday that could have delayed Brexit, undermined her strategy for leaving the European Union and undercut the country’s constitutional protocol.

Mrs. May’s latest political escape came when lawmakers narrowly failed to approve an amendment giving Parliament the power to instruct her to seek a delay to avoid a disorderly, and possibly chaotic, exit that Britain faces on March 29 if there is no agreement.

However, she later lost a vote on a nonbinding amendment that said Britain should not leave the bloc without a deal, a sign of potential troubles ahead.

Mrs. May’s main hope remains that a Parliament that cannot agree on any other course will ultimately opt to support a modestly altered version of her deal for fear of a disastrous no-deal Brexit. Critics think she is in reality trying to run down the clock to present them with two bad options: her plan or no deal.

With the deadline pressing, Mrs. May’s next move will likely be to return to Brussels before going back to Parliament to try to convince lawmakers again.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/29/world/europe/brexit-vote.html

What about a redo vote? I thought that was a likely possibility.

Link to tweet