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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsSlate "New Michigan Poll Indicates Democrats Could Beat Trump by Nominating Whomever the Heck They
Want"
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2019/01/michigan-2020-poll-trump-biden-sanders.html
By BEN MATHIS-LILLEY
JAN 30, 20191:39 PM
This post needs to start with a list of strong caveats.
Polls underestimated Donald Trumps chances in 2016 in a way that, while not egregiously inaccurate overall, crucially failed to foresee the way hed win the Electoral College.
There are like a million days (actually 643 days) until the 2020 election.
Any individual poll is just one snapshot of where a hopefully representative subset of potential voters is at during a given time period, not a prediction of exactly what will happen in a real election.
But with those caveats out of the way, this post also gets to highlight a pretty striking result from a 2020 poll out of Michigan, which is currently one of the bellwether-iest swing states in the U.S. as far as predicting who will win the presidency. The poll, conducted for WDIV and the Detroit News by a reputable pollster (Glengariff Group), found:
That Trumps job-performance approval-disapproval rating is underwater in the state by a 3853 margin and that among independents, hes underwater by 7 percentage points (4350).
That Trump would lose a hypothetical 2020 matchup against Joe Biden by a 5340 margin.
That Trump would lose a hypothetical 2020 matchup against Bernie Sanders by a 5241 margin.
Trump also lost matchups against Kamala Harris and Elizabeth Warren by smaller marginsbut thats because more respondents said they were undecided in head-to-heads involving the two lesser-known candidates, not because Trump got significantly more support himself against them than he did against Biden and Sanders.
Whats most worrisome for Trump about these results is not just that Biden and Sanders are both very well-knownonly 9 percent of Americans said they didnt have an opinion about Sanders in a recent Gallup poll, and Biden is Bidenbut that theyre well-known for being about as far apart ideologically as two Democratic presidential candidates could be. Biden is the guy strongly associated with the Democratic Party establishment who has a long record on issues like criminal justice and financial regulation that now qualify as conservative; Sanders is the fiery leftist outsider who wants to crush the banks and raise taxes to pay for universal health care and higher education. If both of those guys would trounce Trump, it suggests that theres not much that voters could learn about Warren or Harrisor really anyone with a (D) next to their namethat they would find disqualifying.
And thats in the context of a fairly strong economy. And in the context of Michigan voters believing their state is on the right track by a 19-point margin, according to the same poll.
Not good for the Trump man! But hey, theres still time to turn it around. Maybe if he builds the wall? (WDIV and the Detroit News found that Michigan voters oppose Trumps wall plan by a 21-point margin.)