COOK POLITICAL moves KS-SEN to "Lean Republican"

With Pompeo not running, former Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach remains the frontrunner in the August 4 primary. National Republicans have outright said that the controversial Kobach can’t win a general election after losing the 2018 governor’s race by 5 points to Democrat Laura Kelly. In private polling, Republicans have Kobach losing to likely Democratic nominee Barbara Bollier, and Kobach leading every other Republican in a head-to-head except Pompeo.

Add in the fact that Democrats have a strong recruit in Bollier ⁠— a former Republican state senator who cited Trump as one of the reasons she switched parties in Dec. 2018. After former U.S. Attorney Barry Grissom dropped out of the primary in mid-October and threw his support behind Bollier, the DSCC did too. And just this week, Bollier announced an impressive 2019 Q4 haul of more than $1.1 million.

All those factors make it more imperative for Republicans to try and find any way for Kobach not to be their nominee. Republican strategists expect there to be a push to unite around one anti-Kobach candidate, and 1st District Rep. Roger Marshall does seem to be the most likely alternative. However, many Republicans think he’s been underwhelming so far as a candidate and that he needs to show better fundraising too to be competitive. At the end of October, Marshall did have about $1.9 million in the bank because of a transfer from his House account. However, he could have trouble uniting hard-core conservatives. Marshall has a low score with the Club for Growth, which opposed him in the 2016 primary, where he ousted incumbent GOP Rep. Tim Huelskamp.

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Ultimately Kansas shouldn’t be a headache for the GOP, but it’s quickly becoming one. And as long as Kobach looks like the likely nominee ⁠— barring a reversal from Pompeo or a stronger showing from Marshall or Wagle or another candidate ⁠— that gives Democrats a much more plausible path. Given those dynamics, we’re moving this race to the Lean Republican column.

https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/senate/kansas-senate/pompeo-out-kansas-senate-moves-likely-lean-republican