538: Americans Don't Know What To Think About Trump's Iran Strategy

Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup.

Poll(s) of the week

On Wednesday, I wrote about what political science and polls about foreign policy can tell us about the impact of the current situation in Iran on both the primary and general election. But conspicuously missing from that analysis were any polls about how the American public feels about Iran. That’s largely because polling on Iran paints a fairly confusing picture, and surveys about this specific incident (which is also still evolving quickly) are still in the field. But in the first 2020 edition of Pollapalooza, I want to walk you through the polls we do have on Iran and military intervention there.

First, a HuffPost/YouGov survey conducted over the weekend found that Americans narrowly approved of the decision to kill Iranian General Qassem Soleimani (43 percent to 38 percent) — but they were skeptical of how the decision was made. For example, they said 43 percent to 35 percent that President Trump did not plan the airstrike carefully enough and said 44 percent to 34 percent that he should have gotten congressional authorization before ordering the airstrike. Overall, just 32 percent said they thought Trump has a clear strategy for dealing with Iran, while 47 percent said he doesn’t. A Jan. 5-7 poll from The [link:Reuters/Ipsos also fielded a survey Jan. 3-6, finding that Americans disagreed with the idea that the U.S. should conduct a preemptive attack on Iranian military interests (27 percent supported such an attack, while 41 percent were opposed). However, that was a significantly more hawkish outlook than Americans took in the last Reuters/Ipsos poll that asked about a preemptive attack on Iran, back in May. At that time, 60 percent of Americans said they opposed a preemptive attack and 12 percent supported one. Finally, Ipsos paired with USA Today for a survey conducted Jan. 7-8, making it the only poll we have so far that includes some interviews taken after Iran’s retaliatory bombing of U.S. military bases in Iraq. That poll found that Americans supported the killing of Soleimani 42 percent to 33 percent, but a whopping 55 percent said the strike made the U.S. less safe (24 percent thought it made the U.S. more safe).|Economist/YouGov] found similar results: Americans approved of the Soleimani strike, 44 percent to 38 percent, but said 45 percent to 36 percent that it is more important to avoid war than to “confront Iranian aggression.”

Reuters/Ipsos also fielded a survey Jan. 3-6, finding that Americans disagreed with the idea that the U.S. should conduct a preemptive attack on Iranian military interests (27 percent supported such an attack, while 41 percent were opposed). However, that was a significantly more hawkish outlook than Americans took in the last Reuters/Ipsos poll that asked about a preemptive attack on Iran, back in May. At that time, 60 percent of Americans said they opposed a preemptive attack and 12 percent supported one. Finally, Ipsos paired with USA Today for a survey conducted Jan. 7-8, making it the only poll we have so far that includes some interviews taken after Iran’s retaliatory bombing of U.S. military bases in Iraq. That poll found that Americans supported the killing of Soleimani 42 percent to 33 percent, but a whopping 55 percent said the strike made the U.S. less safe (24 percent thought it made the U.S. more safe).

It’s important to note, however, that plenty of people in all four polls didn’t express an opinion one way or the other on Iran. This suggests that opinions on Iran are still in flux and could be swayed by politicians or the media. As I wrote on Wednesday, political scientists have consistently found that public opinion on foreign policy is driven by elites.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/americans-dont-know-what-to-think-about-trumps-iran-strategy/?cid=taboola_rcc_r