problem is, they have finally divorced stock market performance from real world factors like wages and prices.

They have de-coupled the value of the stock to the actual performance of the company. CEOs really manage the stock price, not the company itself.

nt

but through the roof. I get potential, but some of these companies are trading with hot air. Many stable and sucessful companies need fantastical forward earning to justify their current price. And, of course, at some point the country will start taxing them again. I've noted a lot of safe havens have started to go up. Meaning some people are cashing out and stashing earnings. None, of this means tomorrow, next month, a year from now the market will just crash. It does mean, though, eventually some type of correction must occur.

You want to buy/sell counter to what the talking heads are saying in the media. THE best time to buy stocks was in Obama's first year 2009 when everyone thought that the sky was falling. If you bought and held since then you saw fantastic returns.

Today, it's the direct opposite. Everyone is saying "buy", and how the markets will soar.

the pundits are pushing the S&P as their talking points. Well when that index holds stocks with mega hot air prices,is tends to drive the Computer Trades in the first four hours of the markets. Do wish I had the copy of the Trading Algorithm to post so as to everyone could see how the variables in the equation is driving these prices. BTW,one of the nasty variables is Social Media statements as well as Political News and Commentary.

Index funds are the big bubble to try an avoid. Your watching a few good companies inflate to incredible valuations rather iffy companies. I've been moving to REITs since their (hopefully) coming out of last years inversion crash, and only have to tread water to rerturn above inflation worse case.

Got out in early 07' when I saw the Housing Market start to blow. Bought a couple Industrials two years later that were Bailout targets.

Might jump back into REITS,like their fixed rate of return. Like you say,they seem to hold up value wise. Especially Housing Units as well as certain Office Buildings. Looking at CBRE,they seemed to have dumped their Shopping Malls. Had Brookfield in 07'until they bought a bunch of No-Doc-Bonds,then it was see yah I'am out of here.

Well, we always have the prophetic words on a regular basis, but just to chime in, as a layman, it looks like that may be sooner than later and much worse than you might imagine.

I am very concerned about the billions that are now being injected into the repo markets. It's like an big and seemingly endless QE. How can that be a good sign? There are several other factors I am basing my estimation on, but I won't go into it. One can look into it more.

No crystal ball here.

But, that's just another birdie singing.

for about five years now. Well, there was a dip (a correction) at the end of 2018, but the market recovered in about six months.

I recently read an article that pointed out that pretty consistently, two out of three years the market goes up. One out of three it goes down. That's averaged out over a number of decades.

Another thing to keep in mind is that the market periodically sets new highs. It never (not since 1934 or thereabouts) sets new lows.

Yes, at some point the market will drop and stay lower for a while. But trying to predict or time that is not possible.

If you want to take some profits out, go ahead. But note that the market could climb for a while longer before any drop.

economic crash worse than 2008.

The problem with tax repatriation is that companies have been banking such repatriation and are now funneling that money to the US as fast as they can. Eventually (and I'm guessing within months) that process will slow or even stop altogether by June as they catch up. The market will then drop as big investors are first out of the gate for profit-taking. As we approach the election and worries about the ability to repatriate (and possibly a democratic president and senate canceling the repatriation and tax breaks altogether), expect that to accelerate, pushing the markets down hard. An 8000 to 10,000 point market DJIA correction is not out of the question.