Herd Immunity
Projections are that 60 to 70% of a population need to be infected to achieve HI. If this happens here, I bet a vast majority of the infected in our "herd" will be the ignorant assholes that parade around with their assault weapons and attack reasonable people who actually want to help them.
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We have 65k dead now, with all of the things we've done to slow the spread of the disease. How high would that number be if we hadn't done the SIP orders in some of our more populous areas? 4 times higher? 5? Nobody really knows.
We do know that the disease will rapidly overrun our health care industry. New York City and State have just narrowly avoided going the Italy route, and in some isolated areas hit it. Some hospitals were overrun, but not all, so by moving patients around and building out capacity, they managed, barely.
We have historical records of how 1918-19 went, and it wasn't pretty. But we also know that back then, canceling large crowd events helped stem the flow of infection spread. What we did here helped. In some areas it was too slow, but where the SIP was enacted, it worked so far.
We know that if unchecked this disease will kill up to 2-3% of people who contract it. Herd immunity at 75% leads to about 4.5 million dead. Simple math. 
