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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsMichelle Obama: "A lot of our folks didn't vote. It was almost like a slap in the face."
Last edited Tue May 5, 2020, 07:59 AM - Edit history (1)
Kyle Griffin @kylegriffin1 22m"A lot of our folks didn't vote. It was almost like a slap in the face."
"Every time Barack didn't get the Congress he needed, that was because our folks didn't show up. After all that work, they couldn't be bothered ... That's my trauma." https://t.co/wTWr15Xmrc?amp=1
Link to tweet
Celerity
(43,589 posts)he black voter turnout rate declined for the first time in 20 years in a presidential election, falling to 59.6% in 2016 after reaching a record-high 66.6% in 2012. The 7-percentage-point decline from the previous presidential election is the largest on record for blacks. (Its also the largest percentage-point decline among any racial or ethnic group since white voter turnout dropped from 70.2% in 1992 to 60.7% in 1996.) The number of black voters also declined, falling by about 765,000 to 16.4 million in 2016, representing a sharp reversal from 2012. With Barack Obama on the ballot that year, the black voter turnout rate surpassed that of whites for the first time. Among whites, the 65.3% turnout rate in 2016 represented a slight increase from 64.1% in 2012.
Why black voter turnout fell in 2016
How voting Democratic has become integral to African Americans cultural identity.
https://www.vox.com/mischiefs-of-faction/2018/1/15/16891020/black-voter-turnout
Black Voters Arent Turning Out For The Post-Obama Democratic Party. Its a familiar headline in the aftermath of the 2016 presidential election. Indeed, post-election analysis of voter data shows black turnout in presidential elections declined 4.7 percent between 2012 and 2016 (overall turnout showed a small decline from 61.8 percent in 2012 to 61.4 percent in 2016).
How do we explain it and can it be changed? My ongoing research with Ismail White on political norms among black Americans says we ought to have expected the decline, but that the Democratic Party can do much more to cut it back by recognizing how social dynamics shape African-American politics.
Some have attributed the decline in black turnout to voter suppression tactics made possible by the Shelby v. Holder (2013) decision that rescinded key protections from the Voting Rights Act. But black turnout saw similar declines in states where no new voter laws were implemented after the Shelby decision. Others have simplistically pointed to the absence of the first black president on the ballot as if that fact offers an explanation. Our work on the social dynamics of politics within the black community provides the missing explanation.
In our recent publication in the American Political Science Review, we argue that the continued social isolation of blacks in American society has created spaces and incentives for the emergence of black political norms. Democratic partisanship has become significantly tied to black identity in the United States. The historical and continued racial segregation of black communities has produced spaces in which in-group members can leverage social sanctions against other group members to ensure compliance with group partisan norms.
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Study: Black turnout slumped in 2016
https://www.politico.com/story/2017/05/10/black-election-turnout-down-2016-census-survey-238226
Census shows pervasive decline in 2016 minority voter turnout
https://www.brookings.edu/blog/the-avenue/2017/05/18/census-shows-pervasive-decline-in-2016-minority-voter-turnout/
Study: Black voter turnout in Wisconsin declined by nearly one-fifth in 2016
https://madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/study-black-voter-turnout-in-wisconsin-declined-by-nearly-one/article_d3e72e41-96a0-51fb-83ba-11dfc6693daf.html
Turnout among black voters in Wisconsin dropped about 19 percent in the 2016 election from 2012, more than four times the national decline, according to a new study by a liberal group.
The study, released by the Center for American Progress, made the estimates based on data from the U.S. Census, polls and state voter files.
It provides the strongest evidence yet that Wisconsins decline in voter turnout, while seen in other demographic groups, was much more dramatic among African-Americans.
The study also found in Wisconsin, as in other key states, the 2016 electorate was significantly more white and non-college- educated than was reported by exit polls immediately after the election.
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Many in Milwaukee Neighborhood Didnt Vote and Dont Regret It
https://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/21/us/many-in-milwaukee-neighborhood-didnt-vote-and-dont-regret-it.html
MILWAUKEE Four barbers and a firefighter were pondering their future under a Trump presidency at the Upper Cutz barbershop last week.
We got to figure this out, said Cedric Fleming, one of the barbers. We got a gangster in the chair now, he said, referring to President-elect Donald J. Trump.They admitted that they could not complain too much: Only two of them had voted. But there were no regrets. I dont feel bad, Mr. Fleming said, trimming a mustache. Milwaukee is tired. Both of them were terrible. They never do anything for us anyway.
Wisconsin, a state that Hillary Clinton had assumed she would win, historically boasts one of the nations highest rates of voter participation; this years 68.3 percent turnout was the fifth best among the 50 states. But by local standards, it was a disappointment, the lowest turnout in 16 years. And those no-shows were important. Mr. Trump won the state by just 27,000 voters.
Milwaukees lowest-income neighborhoods offer one explanation for the turnout figures. Of the citys 15 council districts, the decline in turnout from 2012 to 2016 in the five poorest was consistently much greater than the drop seen in more prosperous areas accounting for half of the overall decline in turnout citywide.
The biggest drop was here in District 15, a stretch of fading wooden homes, sandwich shops and fast-food restaurants that is 84 percent black. In this district, voter turnout declined by 19.5 percent from 2012 figures, according to Neil Albrecht, executive director of the City of Milwaukee Election Commission. It is home to some of Milwaukees poorest residents and, according to a 2016 documentary, Milwaukee 53206, has one of the nations highest per-capita incarceration rates.
At Upper Cutz, a bustling barbershop in a green-trimmed wooden house, talk of politics inevitably comes back to one man: Barack Obama. Mr. Obamas elections infused many here with a feeling of connection to national politics they had never before experienced. But their lives have not gotten appreciably better, and sourness has set in.
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and when they did vote there was this...
Mostly black neighborhoods voted more Republican in 2016 than in 2012
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/politics/wp/2017/09/25/mostly-black-neighborhoods-voted-more-republican-in-2016-than-in-2012/
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A few things jump out. First: The most heavily white neighborhoods voted much more heavily Republican in 2016 than in 2012 (the dark red line shoots up past the light-red one). Second, the most heavily black neighborhoods voted less heavily Democratic last year than four years ago. (Well come back to this, obviously.) Third, Hispanic neighborhoods voted for Republicans less than in 2012.
The net effect of those shifts can be measured by comparing the margin between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney in 2012 with the Trump-Clinton margin in each neighborhood last year. In heavily white neighborhoods, a big shift to the Republicans. In mostly Hispanic neighborhoods, generally more support for the Democrat, except in the most dense places (although, as the chart on the right makes clear, the sample size for those is very small and therefore more subject to volatility).
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This Chart Shows Philadelphia Black Voters Stayed Home, Costing Clinton
A shift in Philadelphia voter turnout, which broke along racial lines, appears to have cost Hillary Clinton almost 35,000 votes.
https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/johntemplon/this-chart-shows-philadelphia-black-voters-stayed-home-costi
One of the most surprising results of Election Day was Donald Trump winning Pennsylvania a state that had voted for the Democrat in every election since 1988. As of the Pennsylvania Board of Elections latest tally, Trump leads Hillary Clinton by 57,588 votes. More than 60% of that margin comes from a shift in the vote in Philadelphia.
The Philadelphia data offers a particularly clear glimpse at what went wrong for Hillary Clinton: A block of voters who showed up for Barack Obama wasnt inspired enough by her or scared enough by Donald Trump to show up. And as analysts pore over the results of the campaign, the numbers in Philadelphia offer perhaps the most devastating single data point for the Clinton campaign.
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massive drop in 85% black Detroit too
Link to tweet
Sloumeau
(2,657 posts)I have been looking for stories where Black voters were interviewed to help explain why the Black vote dropped off like it did. This is a a good starting point for me. Thanks again.
zentrum
(9,865 posts)....about the years prior to 2016. When they didn't turn out to give Obama the Congress he needed.
lagomorph777
(30,613 posts)Not that he'd have been a lot bolder, but would have made a bit more progress.
Celerity
(43,589 posts)brush
(53,924 posts)And what white voters who didn't turn out? Why always the to blame black voters
Celerity
(43,589 posts)accept the trend was not a new one.
zentrum
(9,865 posts)I haven't seen the documentary but I wonder if she addresses why this happened.
Is there anything on our side that we could have done differently?
The Obama's had to walk such a narrow, unforgiving line from the moment he was in the oval office.
The Mouth
(3,165 posts)So hopefully they will turn out. Joe was far from my first choice, but the conventional wisdom is that African Americans are our core constituency of the Democratic Party and *must* be listened to, so let's hope so!
Celerity
(43,589 posts)dawg day
(7,947 posts)to counteract the idiocy and greed of so many white voters.
Ferrets are Cool
(21,110 posts)dawg day
(7,947 posts)(I'm close to Medicare age, but wouldn't vote GOP if I lived to be 100, of course.) Do they even notice that he is callously dismissing their lives and health as unimportant?
Then again, if it's not on Fox News, most Trump voters will never hear about it.
Ferrets are Cool
(21,110 posts)they are so brainwashed by that comedy channel that they don't know or care to know the truth.
tblue37
(65,501 posts)when she learned that the Mueller report didn't completely exonerate Trump at all, but rather strongly suggested his guilt.
She said she only listened to and read right wing sources like FOX,Breitbart, etc., and had never heard any of the negative stuff about Trump that Amash explained during his town hall.
Ferrets are Cool
(21,110 posts)IronLionZion
(45,563 posts)Yes, I know there are some Obama voters who flipped to Trump and might flip back to Biden. But in business it's generally easier to retain customers than to find new ones. Good brands inspire long term loyalty. Anyone who would flip to our side already has after seeing what Trump has done.
For reference, Obama probably didn't flip a lot of Bush voters but inspired a lot more turnout from Dems to win his elections.
The Mouth
(3,165 posts)would be the logical easy win, IMHO. We can bloviate forever about Hillary getting getting 3 million more in the popular vote, but 33 times that didn't even vote at all.
Buckeye_Democrat
(14,858 posts)... if African American voters picked Clinton in the primaries, then didnt show up in the general election.
That would be like the white evangelicals picking Trump in the GOP primaries, then not voting in the general. (Which wouldve been great in that case.)
Its a touchy subject to talk about groups of any kind, though. No group is completely homogenous, obviously. (Not all Ohioans are uneducated hicks either, but I saw those kinds of comments in 2016 and just let them slide.)
lark
(23,166 posts)She was PISSED the day after the election at so many black women not voting when they came out for Obama. Funny, we argued about it, me telling her that most black women did support Hillary and it's old white women's fault if you are going to blame women. She wasn't having it and still feels like Michelle to this day. I love her passion, even if I don't agree with her blame. I definitely support her mission to get out everyone, every single person, to save the country in Nov.
brush
(53,924 posts)lark
(23,166 posts)Working with frontline patient facing people, and trying to coordinate 2 departments working from home is a hair pulling job. That woild be me if I hadn't retired.
FailureToCommunicate
(14,026 posts)Joe Biden picks Michelle for Vice President!
I KNOW Michelle has said no...
I know she has "done her time" in the public sphere...
I know it would be getting the old "band back together" (Michelle is married to the best President in recent memory)
BUT, Michelle IS the most popular person in America by various polls...
She would only have to say yes...for the good of the nation...
and the rest would be history.
McCamy Taylor
(19,240 posts)for president, the huge turn out in Black voters would give the Democrats a win. This was back in the 1960s. I love Brother Malcolm.
GusFring
(756 posts)A lot of them are pissed that Barack Obama put gay rights high on his agenda. And some saw it as a slap in the face that he did that, but never came up with an agenda specifically for the black community. As a black person who adores the Obamas and isnt homophobic, I think he's the best potus of my lifetime. Its a shame he didn't market his accomplishments like that idiot Trump.
Dem4Life1102
(3,974 posts)I've never understood that. I did have a friend try to explain it to me once but really didn't understand his reasons.
GusFring
(756 posts)To do with the church though. I'm not religious and didn't grow up in the church, so homophobia just isn't a thing with me.
https://mobile.twitter.com/rtyson82/status/1257378497036763138
Obama and Flint is mentioned a lot. I did think he handled that poorly.
I'd like to see some real analysis about how the vote was suppressed for certain demographics after SCOTUS gutted the VRA in 2013. I think that has to be a pretty significant factor.
I don't like playing the blame game directed at any one group. There were really significant and insidious systemic forces working against Obama and Clinton. But I respect what Michelle Obama has to say about this.
GusFring
(756 posts)Young ppl of all races.
GoCubsGo
(32,097 posts)I strongly suspect that was large part of the problem in Wisconsin and Florida. Most likely Michigan, as well.
bigtree
(86,008 posts)...over a black vet who was Lt. Governor.
This is in Md., where turnout among Dems was dismal. I don't think voting restrictions can take the blame for that loss.
Oregon1947
(43 posts)Pepsidog
(6,254 posts)Response to bigtree (Original post)
Name removed Message auto-removed
Steelrolled
(2,022 posts)KayF
(1,345 posts)people are seeing this as being about black people, but I think they adding a racial element that isn't there.
Steelrolled
(2,022 posts)But it sounds odd to me, almost like an obligation. I don't feel like I'm anyone's "folks".
The Mouth
(3,165 posts)In other words, how many would not have voted for a white male candidate with the same record, policies, and exceedingly high level of articulation and charisma? The OP comes kind of close to slightly giving insight into that. OF course, the other interesting question is how many people voted against Obama specifically because he was black? I don't know if it's quite that direct a correlation, as he was highly progressive and presumably, we progressives are not going to let racism infect our political views as much.
I laughingly recall tales of my father being *HIGHLY* conflicted in 1960; he was *EXTREMELY* right-wing, Joe McCarthy level of hard-right, BUT the fact that an Irishman was running for President made him proud, as he was really prideful of that heritage. He utterly loathed anything to do with Democrats, but boy oh boy did he want to see an Irish Catholic President. I find it pretty funny in retrospect; I wonder if he voted Kennedy even though he hated him .
I mention the above because it helps me understand, perhaps a little bit, both the aspirations of African Americans and the aspirations of women, something I can't naturally relate to being a white male.
Spider Jerusalem
(21,786 posts)I just think about what a missed opportunity it was that the infrastructure of the 2008 Obama for America campaign wasn't leveraged to GOTV for the mid-terms.
Skittles
(153,224 posts)yes indeed
ecstatic
(32,748 posts)A lot of people fell for it.