60,000.

Next week they'll tell us the number dead will be Pi.

They are useless.

This new number seems to be them trying to make up for the fact that they blue-sky-ed the numbers so extremely that Donnie Bodybags could use their numbers to argue for opening up.

They really can't make up for that. Never.

.... I think you are being unreasonable. The best anyone can do at this time to make educated guesses base don assumptions. If the assumptions change (like states throwing out social distancing early, or we learn something new about how the virus spreads), it's not at all unreasonable to see radical shifts. These are tools, and like all tools, they have their limits. Actual scientists know how to use them. The problem is people who mistake projections for predictions. They are not the same!

epidemiological information and use epidemiological methods.

IHME does neither. It's crap. Epidemiologists say it's crap. And the fact that it went from 80K to 60K to 135K and now is at 1.2 million should be enough to convince anyone that it's crap.

Are you aware of any models that epidemiologists love? I'm not. If you are, post it up. I am curious.

arctic, and it told you the arctic would maintain temperatures of 90 degrees throughout the winter, would you throw out that model, or would you say, "Well, I don't know of any better models, so let's just go with this one?"

Because one of those options is moronic.

And initially they complained that the IMHE folk used the Wuhan-type curve + data. A model has to start from a priori assumptions.

There are different types of models. Some make predictions for the purpose of testing the assumptions. Some make predictions for the next few days or weeks because somebody needs to be able to have *something* on which to make data. Some are retrospective to try to understand what actually did happen. The first and third are mirror images and are standard fare in science. Make a prediction--if wrong, sort out what was right and wrong and fix it. Recognizing that every model is wrong, they're still useful. The second is more akin to engineering--every model is wrong, to be sure, but can we make one that's useful for getting across the river or into June?


They all now follow the practice of updating. But IMHE was wrong to have lowered it's predictions based on data. But if you're doing policy work it's pointless to predict 1800 deaths last Monday, 1850 Tuesday, and 1900 on Wednesday and Thursday--then on Friday continue on, and predict 2000 on Saturday and 2050 on Sunday if the number last Monday was 800, with Tuesday-Thursday at 800, 790, 800, and 805. If you know you were wrong, why build on wrong? It's impure, it's tainted. it's not science.

In other words, the IMHE was uncoupled from reality and overshot the actual numbers. So it lowered predictions. Even as pundits were saying that the numbers were too low, IMHE cycled down to follow the actual, *real*, curve. The real death toll would be much higher, other modelers said. Just ignore their inaccurate predictions so far. We'll forget all the inaccurate crap, and the one person with the model--however wrong--to predict the right death toll on 8/4 will be assumed to have had the right model. It's how calomel became a standard treatment--somebody lucked out and as a result cursed posterity.

When IMHE increased its number--again, based on the data--those other modelers were moderately smug. On the other hand, their models were still wrong. But as long as the facts are actually in short supply and nobody looks at the dreaded numbers or the actual curves involved, smugness wins hands down every time. (Or, as I put it, "self-righteousness.&quot

Fortunately, people treat numbers like they're walking SARS-CoV-2 virions.

and often times approaching 3000 a day, with 176 days to the election, added to the already 80,000 dead, by Nov. 3, 2020 there will be 432,000 dead on trump's hands.

And that, I repeat, is a conservative estimate. And with no vaccine and idiot repug governors and moronic trump opening up the economy all over the place, that figure will keep jumping until there is a vaccine in a year or so—add 365 x 2000 a day (730,000) to the 432,000 already calculated and we get 1,143,000 conservatively before a vaccine.

This is far from over. I'm staying my behind in.

Masks and distancing will mitigate it, but there are some areas that are being recalcitrant to sound health measures.

US deaths from the 1918-1920 were around 675,000. That virus had a definitely high mortality rate.

As we test for CV antibodies, we are going to find the infected numbers are MUCH higher than thought. Orders of magnitude higher.

The flu pandemic lasted from January 1918 to December 1920.

500,000 by April 2021 is my gut feeling. I think there will be a second wave this coming fall/winter.

I hope I am way off on this feeling...on the high side of it. These aren’t just numbers, they are loved ones of so many people.

So many cases and deaths are not being reported.

started coming out from the get go. Stats are scary,and a person like the Orange Anus has zero clue what is happening right in front of his eyes.

Are we trending the 1912-1921 time period? Sure as hell appears that way.

But I honesty do believe this virus has spread much further than we know and it’s true death rate is lower than the flu pandemic.

My gut tells me the death rate on this one is around 1-2 pct. The flu bug was around 5-6 pct.

we had the CES Electronic Show here in Vegas in early November. 170k visitors from all over the World with a huge group from China as well as Americans whom work in China all in attendance. Convention Center Employees have become sick,and no one has mentioned which strain of this virus we have here in Vegas. Is it China direct or is it China via Eourpe?

Our local Media has not gone there,we do have a powerful Vistor Convention Bureau ran by the Casino Moguls as well as the Mayor's Office. Hunch says,some one has their boot on someones neck.

Wont make any difference,Restaurants as well as Bars opened today,and Hair Salons and Barbers were allowed to open as well. And if you know the Zip Codes with the Highest levels of Infections,well,the correlation is going to get ugly.

I had a similar bug at that time. I live 20 min from Detroit Metro Airport.

I think this bug has been in the US since early November.

from Italy on or around the first weekend of November via London to Newark and then on to Vegas. Mrs L got sick as all get out with what she thought was the Flu and is lasted two weeks,her Hubby did not get sick but went on from Vegas back to Baltimore on Business . As she said,no one screened anyone at none of the Airports they traversed through.

I think there will be 240,000 by August and 420,000 by election day and 540,000 by the end of the year.

That prevents having a rational, unified response. It also is an obstacle when it comes to promoting responsible behavior as you can see by Trump and Pence refusing to wear masks when they should be the role models. Instead, idiotic lockdown protesters who deliberately and knowingly undermine the efforts to contain the spread get cheered on by Trump. State governments either have to fight the misinformation coming from the top or they just join the madness and it's often along party lines.

I think the human factor is one of the reasons why the outcome is so hard to predict. It's not only about the death rate.
Simple measures like wearing masks is treated as an infringement on one's liberty, their body their choice is a remark I often see. They believe that everyone who wears a mask is secure if they want it and that it won't affect other people if you don't wear a mask. But it seems that the truth is the other way around: The people wearing masks are protecting those who don't wear masks while they in return can get easily infected by those not wearing masks. It's a blatantly unfair situation and as long as that misconception persists, we'll continue to see irrational behavior and predictions that get worse every month.