Amy McGrath has had some good fortune the past few months in her long shot Senate campaign against Mitch McConnell. None of the Democrats running to her left in the primary (most notably Mike Broihier and Charles Booker) have really galvanized the state’s liberals — and the COVID-19 outbreak has made it even harder for them to get attention and gain major followings. So McGrath is not only likely to easily win the June 23 Democratic primary, but she hasn’t really needed to take a lot of liberal positions that might hurt her in the general election in this conservative-leaning state. McConnell is taking some fairly controversial positions of late, most notably his initial opposition to providing federal aid to states to help them make up for virus-related budget shortfalls.

Finally, Joe Biden’s victory in the Democratic presidential primary is ideal for McGrath, both because her left-but-not-that-left brand of politics are aligned with the former vice president’s and because Sen. Bernie Sanders had the potential to lose really badly in Kentucky and potentially drag down McGrath and other Democrats with him if he were the Democratic nominee.

So could McGrath actually win? A Democrat last won a U.S Senate race in Kentucky in 1992 (Wendell Ford.) She’s still very much a long shot. But looking at recent polls and Democrat Andy Beshear’s victory in last year’s gubernatorial race, there does appear to be a path for a McGrath victory, although it is fairly narrow. Here’s what that path might look like: