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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsCNN reports IHME model increases fatality forecast to 147,000 by Aug 4
and the IHME model is crap that constantly under estimates
so the REAL projection numbers are probably 250,000....
jesus
USALiberal
(10,877 posts)SoonerPride
(12,286 posts)which makes it newsworthy, I guess.
but its predictive usefulness is nil
USALiberal
(10,877 posts)brush
(53,924 posts)Last edited Tue May 12, 2020, 07:11 PM - Edit history (1)
makes them look good. They live in their own up-side-down. bizzarro world, which going by that model still leaves three months to election day, and with a very conservative estimate of 30k deaths a month, would be some 240,000 deaths by election day on Nov. 3.
Hallelujah!
Are they all snorting Adderol in the trump WH?
uponit7771
(90,367 posts)... like having a sane president.
The failing of the 4th estate is proffer and frame questions as Trump is sane, he's not
SoonerPride
(12,286 posts)drray23
(7,638 posts)is probably not the math underneath but rather the unrealistic assumptions that they have. For example, expecting that there will be wide scale testing and good quarantining. I would like to see what all these models say if they ran them with realistic expectations or even the worst case scenario where we do nothing. That would likely result in much higher numbers and probably closer to the actual truth..
SoonerPride
(12,286 posts)I think they need to factor in closer to worst case scenario because a significant number of people are ignoring all guidance.
No masks
No distance
No concern at all
How does that increase the infection rate?
probably badly .
Blue_true
(31,261 posts)ProfessorGAC
(65,248 posts)The upper end of the prediction interval was about 243,000.
The lower end, around 113,000.
So, your 250k isn't unrealistic.