Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member Latest Breaking News General Discussion The DU Lounge All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search

greenman3610

(3,947 posts)
Tue May 26, 2020, 09:21 AM May 2020

Rachel Bitecofer: Biden VP pick critical

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/26/opinion/joe-biden-running-mate.html?smid=tw-share

So the Biden team must make a pick that can help Democrats match what promises to be an energized Republican base. The best way to do that is a ticket-balancing candidate like Stacey Abrams or Kamala Harris. They would bring gender and racial diversity to the ticket and, perhaps even more important, ideological diversity.



The special election last week in California’s 25th District shows Democrats are still vulnerable to low turnout; when their coalition fails to turn out, they lose. It also dispelled a dangerous myth — suburban Republicans are not casting ballots for Democrats. If Democrats want to hold on to or even expand on their House gains from 2018 and potentially take control of the Senate, they need an excited electorate.
14 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies

Response to greenman3610 (Original post)

totodeinhere

(13,059 posts)
9. She is great but she is only a congresswoman. The last time we nominated a congresswoman for
Tue May 26, 2020, 10:30 AM
May 2020

VP it did not go well. I think that Senator Harris would be a better choice.

samsingh

(17,602 posts)
3. I really like Kamala. Val looks like a good choice and if she could get us Florida
Tue May 26, 2020, 09:36 AM
May 2020

that might be a very important part of the decision.

Kamala and Warren could then be AG and Secretary of State (in any order).

Hokie

(4,288 posts)
4. The VP pick importance is always overrated
Tue May 26, 2020, 09:38 AM
May 2020

This happens every election cycle. The VP pick gets over-hyped because it's the only story to pump after the nominee is certain. People vote for the top of the ticket.

totodeinhere

(13,059 posts)
10. I think that this time the VP pick is more important than it usually is.
Tue May 26, 2020, 10:32 AM
May 2020

Voters will be looking at the VP nominee as a potential POTUS due to Joe Biden's age. Lets be realistic. Especially with this nasty virus going around who knows what may happen?

MissMillie

(38,592 posts)
5. I can remember when the VP choice
Tue May 26, 2020, 09:49 AM
May 2020

often hinged on what votes it would garner in the Electoral College, so location was very often a factor.

Now there is so much more to consider.

Energizing young voters, energizing women voters, bringing back Democrats that (for whatever insane reason) wouldn't vote for Secretary Clinton, giving the left wing of the party something to be excited about.

I think bringing back the swing states is the bottom line. And I think the GOP machine in these states is going to do its best to squash voter turnout. A VP choice they don't like may energize that effort.

totodeinhere

(13,059 posts)
11. I think that if it's going to be a close election having a VP nominee that might help the ticket
Tue May 26, 2020, 10:34 AM
May 2020

win a swing state could continue to be a consideration. And in that case Abrams might be a better choice than Harris. The ticket is going to win California anyway. But if Abrams could help us take Georgia that just might be what puts us over the top in the Electoral College.

MissMillie

(38,592 posts)
12. I have a bit of a worry that
Tue May 26, 2020, 11:03 AM
May 2020

the same VP choice that would energize Democrats would also energize MAGAs.

The Democratic forces in individual states need to be vigilant against voter suppression.

delisen

(6,046 posts)
6. Bitecofer has an outdated analysis
Tue May 26, 2020, 09:51 AM
May 2020

So many analysts are locked into false narrative of how we got where we are and where we are. They decide who they want for vp and then build a case.

They ignore the influence of outsider propaganda and involvement because it does not fit their faith based belief system which is built on a past that did not fully exist.

Fiendish Thingy

(15,690 posts)
8. Bitecofer's model is only a few years old - she accurately predicted the Blue Wave of 2018
Tue May 26, 2020, 10:28 AM
May 2020

Down to the exact seats.

Her model focuses on maximizing turnout of existing anti-Trump voters, not Convincing swing voters as most Past predictive models do.

She seems to ignore the recent polling that shows Warren as the first choice VP pick of all Dem voters, tied with Harris for first choice among Black Dem voters.

delisen

(6,046 posts)
14. Midterms and pres elections are very different
Tue May 26, 2020, 01:25 PM
May 2020

Plus Russia was not a factor in 2018 as it is expected to be in 2020. Any analysis that ignores Putin and Facebook type machinations is bogus

Just a few months ago we were told that the candidate had to be Biden in order to energize the AA vote and now we are hearing that he can"t. and only an AA vp can. This is a result of people deciding who they want rather than who can win.

Biden made a mistake in creating this contest for vp. He would wise to pull back and. not be swayed by other people with agendas of their own.

Indykatie

(3,697 posts)
13. Bitcofer is an Excellent Handicapper of Races
Tue May 26, 2020, 11:33 AM
May 2020

That doesn't make her an excellent strategist in my opinion. I have disagreed with a number of her "takes" on what Dems have to do to win. She's still pushing the line that Biden should pick Abrams to ensure the Black vote is energized. Of all the experienced and talented AA women politicians she thinks a political neophyte was the best choice. For anyone to make a case using CA25 race as their example doesn't know the history of the seat or is simply naive. It was an off off cycle special election and the Dem candidate was not able to campaign like Katie Hill did to win this district that had been held by the GOP for years and years.

Latest Discussions»General Discussion»Rachel Bitecofer: Biden V...