General Discussion

kpete

(72,046 posts) Wed Jul 1, 2020, 01:56 PM Jul 2020

AZ-Nearly 1 out of 3 individuals tested for COVID in last 24 hrs came back (28% rate) positive

JUST IN: @VaughnHillyard reports on new coronavirus data in Arizona, including a 28.3% testing positivity rate over the past day.

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20 replies

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AZ-Nearly 1 out of 3 individuals tested for COVID in last 24 hrs came back (28% rate) positive (Original Post) kpete Jul 2020 OP

That's potentially disastrous. OrlandoDem2 Jul 2020 #1

Strike potentially and you are spot on. GulfCoast66 Jul 2020 #16

Not surprising since one would assume anyone getting tested are doing so because they believe still_one Jul 2020 #2

But covid has similar symptoms to many other conditions. LisaL Jul 2020 #4

It also suggests they haven't been testing nearly enough. Hermit-The-Prog Jul 2020 #18

That has pretty much always been the case though, and this number is very high mr_lebowski Jul 2020 #8

Had a COVID-19 test today in Northern AZ. Nevilledog Jul 2020 #20

Disastrous or faulty testing? Freethinker65 Jul 2020 #3

I don't think the testing is faulty. LisaL Jul 2020 #5

It is the antibody testing that is riddled with problems. MLAA Jul 2020 #6

False positive rate is almost zero. False Phoenix61 Jul 2020 #10

Thx Freethinker65 Jul 2020 #15

I have always been cautious about COVID... Thomas Hurt Jul 2020 #7

I guess the virus doesn't respond to a dry heat greenjar_01 Jul 2020 #9

It probably dies quickly in dry or wet heat. And sunlight. GulfCoast66 Jul 2020 #17

Illinois Was Over 30 At One Point ProfessorGAC Jul 2020 #11

Isn't 1 in 3 FormerOstrich Jul 2020 #12

1 out of 3 is 33.3%. LisaL Jul 2020 #19

Higher the positivity rate, the more widespread the virus is in society. At this rate, the tests are Doodley Jul 2020 #13

Early on in Mi. we were at 1.2 positive out of 2 tests. gibraltar72 Jul 2020 #14

OrlandoDem2

(2,072 posts)

1. That's potentially disastrous.

Reply to kpete (Original post)

Wed Jul 1, 2020, 01:58 PM

Jul 2020

GulfCoast66

(11,949 posts)

16. Strike potentially and you are spot on.

Reply to OrlandoDem2 (Reply #1)

Wed Jul 1, 2020, 06:35 PM

Jul 2020

still_one

(92,509 posts)

2. Not surprising since one would assume anyone getting tested are doing so because they believe

Reply to kpete (Original post)

Wed Jul 1, 2020, 01:59 PM

Jul 2020

they have it

LisaL

(44,982 posts)

4. But covid has similar symptoms to many other conditions.

Reply to still_one (Reply #2)

Wed Jul 1, 2020, 02:02 PM

Jul 2020

So low percentage of people tested being positive is a good thing.
This high a percentage shows it's spreading widely.

Hermit-The-Prog

(33,552 posts)

18. It also suggests they haven't been testing nearly enough.

Reply to LisaL (Reply #4)

Wed Jul 1, 2020, 06:44 PM

Jul 2020

Nationwide, we need to test nearly every person, trace contacts, and isolate as needed. The longer this is delayed, the bigger that job will be and the bigger the disaster is going to be.

mr_lebowski

(33,643 posts)

8. That has pretty much always been the case though, and this number is very high

Reply to still_one (Reply #2)

Wed Jul 1, 2020, 02:25 PM

Jul 2020

versus the baseline established by millions of tests conducted in all 50 states during the course of this epidemic.

Nevilledog

(51,285 posts)

20. Had a COVID-19 test today in Northern AZ.

Reply to still_one (Reply #2)

Wed Jul 1, 2020, 06:55 PM

Jul 2020

Had been feeling off for a few days. Answered the screening questions. Symptoms were slight shortness of breath, horrible headache for last 5 days, minor coughing and sore throat. Haven't been exposed to anyone I know who's infected. Always wear a mask. Dr. was being overly
cautious by doing test. I didn't ask for it. It was a little uncomfortable, but quick.

Most likely it's just allergies.

Freethinker65

(10,107 posts)

3. Disastrous or faulty testing?

Reply to kpete (Original post)

Wed Jul 1, 2020, 02:01 PM

Jul 2020

Watch for hospitalizations and deaths.

LisaL

(44,982 posts)

5. I don't think the testing is faulty.

Reply to Freethinker65 (Reply #3)

Wed Jul 1, 2020, 02:03 PM

Jul 2020

This suggests wide spread of the disease.

MLAA

(17,369 posts)

6. It is the antibody testing that is riddled with problems.

Reply to Freethinker65 (Reply #3)

Wed Jul 1, 2020, 02:19 PM

Jul 2020

The actual Covid test is reliable as I understand it. Disclaimer, I am not a medical or lab professional 🙂

Phoenix61

(17,025 posts)

10. False positive rate is almost zero. False

Reply to Freethinker65 (Reply #3)

Wed Jul 1, 2020, 02:27 PM

Jul 2020

negative may be as high a 30%.

Freethinker65

(10,107 posts)

15. Thx

Reply to Phoenix61 (Reply #10)

Wed Jul 1, 2020, 06:26 PM

Jul 2020

Thomas Hurt

(13,903 posts)

7. I have always been cautious about COVID...

Reply to kpete (Original post)

Wed Jul 1, 2020, 02:20 PM

Jul 2020

I am just not clear on how testing numbers translate into or breakdown into:

how many people have flu like symptoms,
how many actually get ill and in bed with the usual flu like symptoms,
how many end up in hospital,
how many suffer permanently debilitating respiratory issues
how many die.

I have seen some mentions in articles but no numbers about how many come down with it, never go to the hospital and end up dying at home.

greenjar_01

(6,477 posts)

9. I guess the virus doesn't respond to a dry heat

Reply to kpete (Original post)

Wed Jul 1, 2020, 02:27 PM

Jul 2020

GulfCoast66

(11,949 posts)

17. It probably dies quickly in dry or wet heat. And sunlight.

Reply to greenjar_01 (Reply #9)

Wed Jul 1, 2020, 06:41 PM

Jul 2020

But no one is in the heat in the south right now.

They are crowded in air conditioned buildings with continually recirculating air.

It’s like the north in winter.

ProfessorGAC

(65,400 posts)

11. Illinois Was Over 30 At One Point

Reply to kpete (Original post)

Wed Jul 1, 2020, 02:35 PM

Jul 2020

Was under 3 yesterday.
10 day moving average was 2.7 for the state. About 4 for the NE region. (Chicago and collar counties)
So, it can be managed down (NY did it, too) but only with strict adherence to the medical recs.
Here's a link to IL graphs. The positivity graphs are 3 down to the right for each region. You will see some data points above 30. But, everything 4 or lower as of yesterday
We'll see what happens here as Phase 4 has begun.

https://www.dph.illinois.gov/restore

FormerOstrich

(2,704 posts)

12. Isn't 1 in 3

Reply to kpete (Original post)

Wed Jul 1, 2020, 02:35 PM

Jul 2020

1/3 or .33333.

Not that the "nearly" 1 or the 5.03% makes the message any better...

LisaL

(44,982 posts)

19. 1 out of 3 is 33.3%.

Reply to FormerOstrich (Reply #12)

Wed Jul 1, 2020, 06:45 PM

Jul 2020

Which is why he says "nearly 1 out of 3."

Doodley

(9,176 posts)

13. Higher the positivity rate, the more widespread the virus is in society. At this rate, the tests are

Reply to kpete (Original post)

Wed Jul 1, 2020, 02:38 PM

Jul 2020

barely registering how much of the population is infected.

gibraltar72

(7,518 posts)

14. Early on in Mi. we were at 1.2 positive out of 2 tests.

Reply to kpete (Original post)

Wed Jul 1, 2020, 03:04 PM

Jul 2020

Gretchen shut us down before we had a lot of deaths. She knew what was coming. We have still paid an awful price, but it could have been 3 times as bad without action.

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