If Ukraine can take back territory in the Donetsk/Luhansk regions... it will effectively end the Russian invasion.

If Russia encircles the Ukrainian defenders and destroys them, it guarantees a broken-up Ukraine.

We'll have a much better sense of the situation a month from now.

The Russians don’t seem to be able to generate much momentum. There’s lots of them, but having an army with low morale and no plan seems to be taking it’s toll.

No/poor strategy, low effort...no real commitment... just can't see them successfully executing some WW2 style encirclement and destruction.

Putin is going after Odesa, and he will use Transnistria as part of it. That involves Moldova, who is a separate country, and NOT part of Romania. Because they already have troops there, they will think that it will work out for them, but it won't.

We have hit yet another crossroad. Russia may suddenly find itself fighting to retain Crimea, instead of the Donbas. Crimea is worth more than the Donbas, IMO. But, I don't know about industry, etc. That port of Mariupol is very strategic and important, even if flattened.

As far as undermining Russia--well, duh! Can't be any plainer when Biden tells them he wants to see Russia weakened. It is not a coincidence that all of a sudden Russia's infrastructure (all military targets) is being hit. This includes Transnistria, because of those embedded troops. Knocking off those troops will help immensely in defense of Odesa.

Putin appears to want to commit suicide. And, Ukraine will not be divided. The pendulum of the war is swinging. As was pointed out today by pundits, all Putin has to do to end the war and save face is to simply leave Ukraine. Ukraine is not spiraling towards any collapse; Russia is the one spinning his wheels because of general incompetence.