History and Analysis of Florida/Ohio Presidential votes over the past 3/4s of a century

or something like that....

Florida

1976: The last instance of the Democratic "Solid south"-- because we nominated a southerner from Georgia... before that, we won Florida in the 1964 landslide, but Kennedy lost it in 1960.


1980 through 1992, the Republicans won Florida. Even Bill Clinton in 1992, with his "all-southern ticket" did not win in Florida--- although as the incumbent in 1996, he did manage to win it.

In 2000, the Democrats "officially" lost Florida, thanks to the Supreme Court ruling, although in all fairness it seems that we actually won it.... A huge number of Democrats punched the ballot for Al Gore, but also wrote in his name, which 'legally' spoiled their ballots-- even though their intent was "doubly clear"....

Democrats lost Florida in 2004.

In 2008 and 2012, Barack Obama won Florida--- I credit those victories to a huge increase in the black vote, for the first African-American presidential nominee and President, as well as the effective landslide for the candidate in both of those years.


Democrats lost Florida in 2016 and 2020, and the state seems to have moved further right in those years. Most professionals no longer consider it to be a 'swing state'--- and personally, I believe the Democratic victories after 1976 to have been 'anomilies', due the strength of our candidates in those eight elections when we won the state. (Bill Clinton and Barack Obama)


OHIO

Ohio had a habit for a few cycles of always going for the winner of the popular vote--- for 60 years, they were known as 'the bell-weather state--- whoever won Ohio won the presidential election'---
but in the long-term of history, they were a more Republican state who gave us several Presidents-- Grant and Taft, for a start. Not sure who else at the moment...

Ohio is somewhat similar to Florida, in that extremely strong Democratic candidates in their year, were able to win it.... but not all of them....

Jimmy Carter won Ohio in 1976, which was a close election and therefore somewhat surprising to me--- but it did enforce 'the rule', "whoever wins Ohio wins the election".

After that, the Democrats lost Ohio, until nominating Bill Clinton, who was a strong candidate and won it in 1992 and 1996.

Afterwards, Democrats lost it in 2000 and 2004,
but Barack Obama won it in 2008 and 2012
(again, I credit that to increased African-American turnout, as well as the general strength of the candidate...)

Since 2012, the Democratic candidate has not won Ohio.


>>>Notably, President Roosevelt lost in Ohio in 1944, while easily winning the rest of the country (432-99 electoral votes).
(WTF, ohio?? LOL)


President John F. Kennedy also won the presidency in 1960, while losing Ohio. After that, President Joe Biden in 2020 also won the Presidency, while also losing Ohio--- the first presidential candidate in 60 years to do so...

Luckily, the Democrats are no longer dependent upon Ohio--- but I can't quite figure out what has happened to that state... The majority of their voters have obviously shifted to the right, although the majority also clearly support abortion rights. If we are to make any fight in that state (and all the rest for that matter, ) we must do so on the basis of reproductive rights as Issue number one!


But WTF about voting against Roosevelt in 1944?? That still boggles my mind.... lol


In either instance, I would not categorize either Florida or Ohio as "swing states" over the past half-century or more--- they would only swing to the Democrats when we had particularly strong candidates-- and otherwise would revert to voting for some weak Republican candidates... (Ford, Bush 1 and Bush 2...)

However, I think we have a particularly strong candidate with President Joe Biden---
especially when compared to 'the alternative' !!!!

(Not making an argument for making a serious fight for either of those states---
but "just saying"...)


Still, if we make a fight in those states, the Trump campaign will need to respond---
and they have a major financial problem going into the General election....

Thoughts?