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drray23

(7,637 posts)
Sat Apr 13, 2024, 07:19 AM Apr 13

Barack Obama won Florida . Could Biden do it ?

This November, there will be an abortion measure on the ballot in Florida. This will very likely motivate a lot more people to vote and hopefully to vote Democrat from top to bottom of ticket.

For the senate, polls are saying Rick Scott is still ahead of Debbie Mucarsel-Powel but I am not sure these polls properly capture the effect of having abortion on the ballot.

Likewise, Trump is polling ahead of BIden but there are still lots of undecided who could make the difference after a few more months of Trump trials and general jackasserie.

It might be a long shot but if Biden won it , it would all but close any possibility of Trump making it to 270.





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Barack Obama won Florida . Could Biden do it ? (Original Post) drray23 Apr 13 OP
With abortion rights and marijuana legalization measures on the ballot, turn out will be high in Florida. sop Apr 13 #1
Need a huge non Cuban Hispanic turnout. Funtatlaguy Apr 13 #2
Cubans make up only 25% or so of FL Latinos so you cannot just blame them alone (like some incorrectly do on DU) for Celerity Apr 13 #5
Probably not, but it should be a lot closer. Freethinker65 Apr 13 #3
There has been seismic shift in Florida voter registration towards the Republicans... brooklynite Apr 13 #4
It will be a long shot. sop Apr 13 #9
So many of the boomers that moved here from New York love trump RandiFan1290 Apr 13 #6
It's possible mcar Apr 13 #7
gilliam, too. so close. mopinko Apr 13 #8
So close mcar Apr 13 #12
No he cannot. Raftergirl Apr 13 #10
It was fairly close in 2020 Johnny2X2X Apr 13 #11
Then all or a significant amount of Republicans will have to move back to wherever they came from In It to Win It Apr 13 #15
Yes, a lot has changed Polybius Apr 13 #19
No... and I live here and will vote for him In It to Win It Apr 13 #13
Which means they have weakened anamnua Apr 13 #14
So far, it just seems to be places where Republicans were already weak. In It to Win It Apr 13 #16
Roe Roe your vote...abortion is on the ballot and a 60 point win is need thus...I think Demsrule86 Apr 13 #18
In Florida, DeSantis has an approval of 47% Polybius Apr 13 #20
Your using Emerson polls...No DeSantis is not popular in florida. He has Demsrule86 Apr 19 #23
Sorry, but you're incorrect if you think that his approval is bad in Florida Polybius Apr 20 #28
I think Florida is in play. I also think if we push Roe and Social Security...fixing the insurance Demsrule86 Apr 13 #17
Unfortunately- right now not looking good womanofthehills Apr 20 #24
They need a strong turnout in the blue counties Seasider Apr 13 #21
Using 2020 numbers getting 185,844 votes of the 371,686 plus votes TSH got would do it. LiberalFighter Apr 13 #22
Yes. H2O Man Apr 20 #25
As one who is there one to two times per month...No Mark.b2 Apr 20 #26
Trump himself literally IDed Florida as a swing state where he should be campaigning the Prairie Gates Apr 20 #27
"vote Democrat" I sure you meant "vote DemocratIC" elocs Apr 20 #29

sop

(10,233 posts)
1. With abortion rights and marijuana legalization measures on the ballot, turn out will be high in Florida.
Sat Apr 13, 2024, 07:24 AM
Apr 13

It can only help Democrats.

Celerity

(43,487 posts)
5. Cubans make up only 25% or so of FL Latinos so you cannot just blame them alone (like some incorrectly do on DU) for
Sat Apr 13, 2024, 09:09 AM
Apr 13

the entire group. Spanish speakers and Brasilan Portuguese speakers combined voted in pretty large majorities for DeathSentence and the Rethugs. So many of the Central American and South American wealthy (or at least middle class bourgeoisie) have moved into Florida, and they ofttimes (as so many were RW POS back in the origin country, or their parents or grandparents were) buy into the 'the Dems are all commies' shit just like the Cubanos do. The same for their love for anti LGBTQ movements and their misogynistic stances.

Plus millions of retiring christofash white power northern MAGAts have, are, and will be flowing into the FL fever swamps.

I do not see FL going Blue, same for TX, which every cycle some here claim is surely going Blue as well this time.


Data on the Cuban FL percentages

Florida

https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/FL/PST045223#qf-headnote-b

FLPopulation estimates, July 1, 2023, (V2023) 22,610,726



Hispanic or Latino, percent(b) 27.1% (6,127,507)



Cubans make up 25.4 % of those 6,127,507 FL Latinos

brooklynite

(94,716 posts)
4. There has been seismic shift in Florida voter registration towards the Republicans...
Sat Apr 13, 2024, 08:08 AM
Apr 13
Since Gov. Ron DeSantis won election by less than half of a percentage point in 2018, the GOP has been able to build an 851,000 lead in registered voters over Democrats, capture every statewide elected office and stand up supermajorities in the Florida House and Senate.

https://www.tallahassee.com/story/news/politics/2024/04/11/florida-democrats-seek-to-close-voter-registration-gap-with-gop/73280565007/


The Biden campaign says they'll compete iin Florida but its still a long shot.

RandiFan1290

(6,239 posts)
6. So many of the boomers that moved here from New York love trump
Sat Apr 13, 2024, 09:15 AM
Apr 13

It is disgusting and they assume everyone here loves him too.

mcar

(42,372 posts)
7. It's possible
Sat Apr 13, 2024, 09:18 AM
Apr 13

With abortion and pot on the ballot, Democrats and young people might come out to vote.

Let's also remember that Sen Voldemort won by less than 1% last time and we have a good competitor in Debbie Murcarsel-Powell. Plus, Nikki Fried is doing a great job revitalizing the Florida Democratic Party.

It all comes down to turnout.

mcar

(42,372 posts)
12. So close
Sat Apr 13, 2024, 12:02 PM
Apr 13

DeathSentence won big in '22, in large part because Dems and young people just didn't vote. The #s are staggering.

Johnny2X2X

(19,108 posts)
11. It was fairly close in 2020
Sat Apr 13, 2024, 11:06 AM
Apr 13

Biden got 47.9% in 2020 to 51.2% for Trump.

Abortion is going to be a game changer. It’s in the ballot.

In It to Win It

(8,280 posts)
15. Then all or a significant amount of Republicans will have to move back to wherever they came from
Sat Apr 13, 2024, 12:27 PM
Apr 13

Things have changed since 2020. A lot more Republicans live here now than they did in 2020.

DeSantis got 4 million votes in 2018. He got 4.6 million votes in 2022. That’s a huge difference in turnout, and Dobbs was still fresh.

Polybius

(15,472 posts)
19. Yes, a lot has changed
Sat Apr 13, 2024, 01:19 PM
Apr 13

But not for the better. It's even more right-wing now. Here's a poll, and Biden is down by 10. His approval is just 36%.

In a 2024 presidential election between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, 51% support Trump, 38% Biden, and 11% are undecided. With the candidate undecided voters lean toward allocated, Trump’s overall support increases to 56%, and Biden to 44%.


https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/florida/trump-vs-biden

In It to Win It

(8,280 posts)
13. No... and I live here and will vote for him
Sat Apr 13, 2024, 12:20 PM
Apr 13

But I don’t think he can win.

4 years ago, I would have said he had a chance. Too many Republicans have moved here since 2020.

In It to Win It

(8,280 posts)
16. So far, it just seems to be places where Republicans were already weak.
Sat Apr 13, 2024, 12:29 PM
Apr 13

I’d take the hit if more Republicans from Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Georgia want to move to Florida.

Demsrule86

(68,643 posts)
18. Roe Roe your vote...abortion is on the ballot and a 60 point win is need thus...I think
Sat Apr 13, 2024, 12:39 PM
Apr 13

Florida Republicans at all levels should be shaking in their jackboots. Also, the Governor has terrible approval ratings.

Polybius

(15,472 posts)
20. In Florida, DeSantis has an approval of 47%
Sat Apr 13, 2024, 01:21 PM
Apr 13

Biden's is 36% in Florida.

In a 2024 presidential election between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, 51% support Trump, 38% Biden, and 11% are undecided. With the candidate undecided voters lean toward allocated, Trump’s overall support increases to 56%, and Biden to 44%.

Among Biden voters, 32% support him because they dislike Trump, 24% because they like Biden, 19% care about an issue, and 14% support their party’s candidate.
Among Trump voters, 31% support him because they care about an issue, 28% because they like Trump, 16% because they dislike Biden, and 14% support their party’s candidate.

President Biden holds 36% job approval among Florida voters and 54% job disapproval. Governor Ron DeSantis has a 47% job approval and 42% disapproval rating.


https://emersoncollegepolling.com/florida-2024-poll-plurality-plan-to-vote-yes-on-abortion-protection-ballot-measure/

Demsrule86

(68,643 posts)
23. Your using Emerson polls...No DeSantis is not popular in florida. He has
Fri Apr 19, 2024, 11:47 PM
Apr 19

cost the states enormous amounts of money, and signed a 15 week abortion ban.



Polybius

(15,472 posts)
28. Sorry, but you're incorrect if you think that his approval is bad in Florida
Sat Apr 20, 2024, 02:14 AM
Apr 20

Here's a brand new one from two days ago:

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis rebounded to pre-presidential race approval among Floridians, with 54 percent of Republicans expressing approval of his governance – similar to his approval rating in July 2023, according to a previous FAU poll


https://www.fau.edu/newsdesk/articles/april2024flapoll

Biden's approval in Florida stands at 36% in Florida.

Demsrule86

(68,643 posts)
17. I think Florida is in play. I also think if we push Roe and Social Security...fixing the insurance
Sat Apr 13, 2024, 12:36 PM
Apr 13

ETC we can win...the electoral college and the senate seat...Rick Scott' seat.

womanofthehills

(8,759 posts)
24. Unfortunately- right now not looking good
Sat Apr 20, 2024, 12:59 AM
Apr 20

Average of last 10 Florida polls - https://www.270towin.com/2024-presidential-election-polls/florida

Biden. 40
Trump. 49.3

When you add Independents

Biden. 38
Trump. 48
Kennedy 6.3
West. 1
Stein. .05

Plus other - 5 to 8 %

Seasider

(169 posts)
21. They need a strong turnout in the blue counties
Sat Apr 13, 2024, 02:08 PM
Apr 13

Like Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach. Trump unfortunately brought out a bunch of voters in the panhandle which helped him in 2016 and 2020. If I was Biden I would send Obama to campaign there heavily if he hasn’t already.

Mark.b2

(261 posts)
26. As one who is there one to two times per month...No
Sat Apr 20, 2024, 01:29 AM
Apr 20

One, people there don't come across as terribly politically aware nor engaged. Two, if they are, they like DeSantis.

Yes, yes, there are exceptions.

I'm just speaking as someone who is there lots, in all parts of the state, and who listens to folks.

YMMV

Prairie Gates

(1,049 posts)
27. Trump himself literally IDed Florida as a swing state where he should be campaigning the
Sat Apr 20, 2024, 01:57 AM
Apr 20

other day.

What's in it for him to say that? He mentioned NC, too. I think he let something slip there about what they're seeing.

Who knows. I'll just say I put little stock in polls posted by people who only ever post Republican friendly polls.....

elocs

(22,598 posts)
29. "vote Democrat" I sure you meant "vote DemocratIC"
Sat Apr 20, 2024, 08:18 AM
Apr 20

Because "vote Democrat" or the "Democrat party" is what ignorant Republicans do.

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