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Yavin4

(35,446 posts) Wed Apr 24, 2024, 09:26 PM Apr 24

Facts about any polls that you need to know.

1. We live in the most polarized electorate maybe in our history. Any poll that has an equal number of Republicans, Democrats is basically going to show that the race is essentially tied.

2. Any lead by either candidate has to be well outside the margin of error (MOE) to be taken seriously.

3. The election will be decided by turnout. Polls that rely on self-reporting about a future activity may be unreliable. Who actually votes is something that pollsters struggle to model. It was easier when voters would cross party lines to vote. Today, Republicans who personally despise Trump will still vote for him. See Bill Barr.

6 replies

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Facts about any polls that you need to know. (Original Post) Yavin4 Apr 24 OP

Good to see you back. underpants Apr 24 #1

"Republicans who personally despise Trump will still vote for him." It's incomprehensible. sop Apr 24 #2

4. Polls are a snapshot of a particular moment in time. They are not intended to be predictive. TwilightZone Apr 24 #3

True. n/t Yavin4 Apr 24 #4

The problem with polls involving presidential election it is not state by state. LiberalFighter Apr 24 #5

Polling is also extremely weird right now. Pretty Fly Apr 24 #6

underpants

(182,880 posts)

1. Good to see you back.

Reply to Yavin4 (Original post)

Wed Apr 24, 2024, 09:36 PM

Apr 24

If I’ve missed or not noticed they were your posts, excuse me.

I don’t dismiss polls but I understand that polling is very tough now. Any MOE >3% is not a good poll and shouldn’t be published but I also understand the money.

Most of the polls I’ve seen recently leave 6-10% as undecided. That’s the whole ballgame. 2% in the ballgame

sop

(10,251 posts)

2. "Republicans who personally despise Trump will still vote for him." It's incomprehensible.

Reply to Yavin4 (Original post)

Wed Apr 24, 2024, 09:43 PM

Apr 24

"Donald Trump was slammed by a Republican-voting couple in the Trump stronghold of Roberts County, Texas, in an interview that aired on CNN on Tuesday...Kay and Ron Swart, who voted for the presumptive GOP nominee in 2016 and 2020, agreed Trump has appalling ethics and isn’t fit for office."

"Trump’s moral character is 'terrible,' Kay Swart admitted to Tuchman. 'It can’t get much lower than it is,' she added. 'He continues to make crazy comments about being a dictator his first day and repercussions against people who he feels have wronged him.' Tuchman asked the couple if Trump would be fit to become POTUS again if he is found guilty in one of his four criminal cases. 'I don’t think he’s fit,' replied Kay Swart, before adding: 'But I’m voting for him.'

"Ron Swart, meanwhile, claimed the United States wouldn’t survive four more years 'of Democrats in charge.' Trump is 'most definitely' of low character, poor morals and poor ethics, he said. 'I feel as wrong as it’s going to be to have him for president, he’s still going to be a lot better president for the United States than what we’ve gotten with Joe Biden and the Democrats,' he added."

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/republican-voting-couple-trump-cnn_n_661f7dfee4b0d633765822d9

TwilightZone

(25,480 posts)

3. 4. Polls are a snapshot of a particular moment in time. They are not intended to be predictive.

Reply to Yavin4 (Original post)

Wed Apr 24, 2024, 09:45 PM

Apr 24

Yavin4

(35,446 posts)

4. True. n/t

Reply to TwilightZone (Reply #3)

Wed Apr 24, 2024, 09:47 PM

Apr 24

LiberalFighter

(51,088 posts)

5. The problem with polls involving presidential election it is not state by state.

Reply to Yavin4 (Original post)

Wed Apr 24, 2024, 10:01 PM

Apr 24

It doesn't reflect the differences in age brackets. Those in one age bracket might be more liberal or conservative than a different age bracket.

If 1,500 are polled across the country. That means on average 30 are polled in each state. How does equalize when some states are smaller or larger than others?

Pretty Fly

(66 posts)

6. Polling is also extremely weird right now.

Reply to Yavin4 (Original post)

Wed Apr 24, 2024, 10:19 PM

Apr 24

Biden and Trump are tied in the Quinnipiac poll head-to-head (46-46) but when third party candidates are thrown in, it's 37-37.

That means 25% are either voting third party or undecided.

I really doubt come November, the third party candidates get 25% of the vote.

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