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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsMore Holy Shit -Atlantic Hurricane predictions 2024
https://penntoday.upenn.edu/news/2024-tropical-cyclone-predictionMichael Mann and colleagues predict a record-breaking 33 named storms for the 2024 North Atlantic hurricane season. It is the highest count ever projected.
For more than a decade, climate scientist Michael Mann of School of Arts & Sciences at the University of Pennsylvania and colleagues have annually combed through historical weather data, reviewed current oceanic and atmospheric conditions, and applied computational modeling to forecast of coming hurricane seasons.
The team, comprising Shannon Christiansen, a senior research coordinator in the Mann Group, and Michael Kozar, a former graduate researcher in the Mann Research Group, today released their prediction for the 2024 North Atlantic season, which spans from June 1 to Nov. 30. They forecast an unprecedented 33 named tropical cyclones, potentially ranging between 27 and 39.
Weve seen many hyperactive seasons over the past decade, and in just about all cases, like our prediction for this year, the activity is substantially driven by ever-warmer conditions in the tropical Atlantic tied to large-scale warming, says Mann, Presidential Distinguished Professor in the Department of Earth and Environmental Science and director of the Penn Center for Science, Sustainability and the Media.
NickB79
(19,298 posts)Maybe DeSantis will start to believe climate change is real.
MOMFUDSKI
(5,787 posts)rates. This allows northern MAGA $$$ to move to Florida as they can afford to. It will become a State with no services in the end. The worker bees will have to go to where they can afford to live.
Happy Hoosier
(7,479 posts)after they've priced the state out of livability.
I'm curious what the big theme parks do for insurance. At this point, they have to be considering self-insurance.
Magoo48
(4,722 posts)Sadly, even those who do believe in climate change cant or wont behave accordingly. The reality, according to the latest, best science, is that our Earth must pull as one massive engine to partially restrict the coming climate catastrophe. The first world is not willing to sacrifice according to the magnitude needed. The first world will not be inconvenienced,
Sky Jewels
(7,200 posts)They have chosen to pretend it's fake because that serves their agenda of enabling the uber rich and corporations to keep operating in rape-pillage-and-plunder-the-Earth mode.
ornotna
(10,810 posts)malaise
(269,283 posts)Not looking forward to the hurricane season
ornotna
(10,810 posts)Still fresh in the memory banks.
Hopefully we only see outer bands this year. (fingers crossed)
malaise
(269,283 posts)Ian was devastating
Deuxcents
(16,447 posts)Lochloosa
(16,084 posts)malaise
(269,283 posts)malaise
(269,283 posts)The oceans and seas are way too hot
Hugin
(33,222 posts)Cant be far away.
malaise
(269,283 posts)for sure
Think. Again.
(8,843 posts)A page from Guy Callendars 1938 paper shows how he tracked and calculated CO2 changes, all in his spare time. GS Callendar, 1938
In 1938, a British engineer and amateur meteorologist made a discovery that set off a fierce debate about climate change.
Scientists had known for decades that carbon dioxide could trap heat and warm the planet. But Guy Callendar was the first to connect human activities to global warming.
He showed that land temperatures had increased over the previous half-century, and he theorized that people were unwittingly raising Earths temperature by burning fossil fuels in furnaces, factories and even his beloved motorcycles.
When Callendar published his findings, it set off a firestorm. The scientific establishment saw him as an outsider and a bit of a meddling gentleman scientist. But, he was right.
His theory became widely known as the Callendar Effect. Today, its known as global warming. Callendar defended his theory until his death in 1964, increasingly bewildered that the science met such resistance from those who did not understand it.
Source: https://theconversation.com/a-mild-mannered-biker-triggered-a-huge-debate-over-humans-role-in-climate-change-in-the-early-20th-century-170954
erronis
(15,468 posts)Rec
Tennessee Hillbilly
(591 posts)maybe it's path will take it through Mar-a-lago.
malaise
(269,283 posts)😀
sybylla
(8,533 posts)It's no wonder new home prices are ridiculous. We've had nothing but devastating hurricane seasons for most of a decade now.
malaise
(269,283 posts)Good advice
ancianita
(36,221 posts)Start 2:05 for likely Niño/Niña effects
malaise
(269,283 posts)ancianita
(36,221 posts)twodogsbarking
(9,924 posts)malaise
(269,283 posts)I remember Andrew well
Cheezoholic
(2,047 posts)niyad
(113,921 posts)mgardener
(1,825 posts)I have been a gardener for over 45 years here and in Vt.
We have always been a Zone 4 area. I live near, not on Lake Champlain
I am a 5b now.
I have been able to extend my vegetable gardens by about 2 months from when I first started to garden.
We are opening our pool a full 3 weeks early to prevent algae growth. We close it 2-3 -weeks later.
Those who do not believe in climate change are not paying attention
malaise
(269,283 posts)Climate change is real
Prairie_Seagull
(3,348 posts)For plant hardiness 'zones'. About 50% of our country is now a 1/2 zone hotter. I don't know which plants are going to be harder to grow but the planet is groaning.
https://planthardiness.ars.usda.gov/
on edit: This is based on 30 years of data.
malaise
(269,283 posts)Wed better pay attention
Maybe, but I live in South Florida and the hurricane season forecasts have almost always predicted unprecedented activity even when the season turned out to be quiet. Definitely believe in climate change and maybe Im just doing some wishful thinking.
OnlinePoker
(5,729 posts)malaise
(269,283 posts)Two days ago
DontBelieveEastisEas
(517 posts)They are driving their vehicles more than usual just so that there is a higher chance that a Hurricane will hit in September or Octobe.
They expect oil refineries to be shut down and the skyrocketing gas prices to get Drumph over the line.
I hope their plans do not succeed.
captain queeg
(10,288 posts)canetoad
(17,215 posts)And we're just coming off the tropical cyclone season. It's been far busier than usual, with several cyclones in the western Pacific. The Indian Ocean however has been the one to watch. There were many more cyclones than previous years. Many didn't make landfall but sat still for several days before moving off.
As to the eastern Pacific - can't really say but the pattern seems to be more cyclones/hurricanes and increasing intensity.
malaise
(269,283 posts)Extremely severe Cyclone Mocha made landfall on May 14, 2023 between Myanmars Kyaukpyu township and Coxs Bazar, Bangladesh, with wind gusts over 134 miles per hour, equivalent to a Category 4 hurricane in the Atlantic.
Mocha was one of the strongest storms ever recorded in Myanmar. Storm surge was estimated at 9-11 feet, and low-lying areas in Myanmars Rakhine State and the neighboring southeast Bangladesh coast were inundated. Myanmar received the brunt of the storms impact
Solly Mack
(90,800 posts)malaise
(269,283 posts)Wheeeeeee. Not.
malaise
(269,283 posts)Last edited Sun Apr 28, 2024, 06:07 PM - Edit history (1)
Solly Mack
(90,800 posts)Anything else coming our way right now will find conditions favorable for maximum damage.
Nanjeanne
(5,004 posts)pansypoo53219
(21,009 posts)ecstatic
(32,786 posts)Here are the 21 names for tropical storms and hurricanes for 2024:
* Alberto
* Beryl
* Chris
* Debby
* Ernesto
* Francine
* Gordon
* Helene
* Isaac
* Joyce
* Kirk
* Leslie
* Milton
* Nadine
* Oscar
* Patty
* Rafael
* Sara
* Tony
* Valerie
* William
So what happens if forecasters run out of names in 2024? It would be a bit different than in years past.
...
Heres the supplemental list of names: Adria, Braylen, Caridad, Deshawn, Emery, Foster, Gemma, Heath, Isla, Jacobus, Kenzie, Lucio, Makayla, Nola, Orlanda, Pax, Ronin, Sophie, Tayshaun, Viviana and Will.
https://www.al.com/news/2024/04/hurricane-names-2024-here-are-the-21-tropical-storm-names-for-the-season.html
What a weird mix of supplemental names.
lark
(23,192 posts)Every year I get worried in the summer, living across from a big river and on the FL coastline. Yes, Jackonville is lucky to be inland on the bay and almost always the storms go up the coast and don't hit here at hurricane strength. It's been since 1962 that we got hit dead center, an experience I hope to never repeat. It was pretty awful and we were some of the lucky ones. The last few years have been very quiet in this part of FL, as far as storms go, not even any near misses in a long time.
I also have concerns for all the other people in the predicted storms' path and hope nothing too devastating their way comes too.