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malaise

(269,283 posts)
Sun Apr 28, 2024, 01:22 PM Apr 28

More Holy Shit -Atlantic Hurricane predictions 2024

https://penntoday.upenn.edu/news/2024-tropical-cyclone-prediction

Michael Mann and colleagues predict a record-breaking 33 named storms for the 2024 North Atlantic hurricane season. It is the highest count ever projected.

For more than a decade, climate scientist Michael Mann of School of Arts & Sciences at the University of Pennsylvania and colleagues have annually combed through historical weather data, reviewed current oceanic and atmospheric conditions, and applied computational modeling to forecast of coming hurricane seasons.

The team, comprising Shannon Christiansen, a senior research coordinator in the Mann Group, and Michael Kozar, a former graduate researcher in the Mann Research Group, today released their prediction for the 2024 North Atlantic season, which spans from June 1 to Nov. 30. They forecast an unprecedented 33 named tropical cyclones, potentially ranging between 27 and 39.

“We’ve seen many hyperactive seasons over the past decade, and in just about all cases, like our prediction for this year, the activity is substantially driven by ever-warmer conditions in the tropical Atlantic tied to large-scale warming,” says Mann, Presidential Distinguished Professor in the Department of Earth and Environmental Science and director of the Penn Center for Science, Sustainability and the Media.

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More Holy Shit -Atlantic Hurricane predictions 2024 (Original Post) malaise Apr 28 OP
Florida's insurance crisis could finally implode NickB79 Apr 28 #1
He is doing nothing about the insurance MOMFUDSKI Apr 28 #6
And they'll complain that "no one wants to work anymore" Happy Hoosier Apr 29 #50
It probably doesn't matter what that fucking Turkey believes or not. Magoo48 Apr 28 #14
Oh, DeSantis and all the Republican-Fascists know it's real. Sky Jewels Apr 28 #19
I'm dreading this season ornotna Apr 28 #2
We are overdue a big one malaise Apr 28 #4
We were hammered by Ian ornotna Apr 28 #7
I remember that malaise Apr 28 #8
We are still recovering, obviously, but an overactive season is not what we want to hear Deuxcents Apr 28 #26
Yeah, I have a bad feeling about this year. Stay dry malaise. Lochloosa Apr 28 #42
You too malaise Apr 28 #43
K&R spanone Apr 28 #3
Brian is on the ball malaise Apr 28 #11
A time when multiple major storms are simultaneously making landfall... Hugin Apr 28 #5
And not in an election year malaise Apr 28 #22
Gee, if only we had some kind of warning... Think. Again. Apr 28 #9
Thanks for that excellent bit of history. The Callendar Effect. erronis Apr 28 #15
Yep malaise Apr 28 #44
If a big hurricane hits Florida, Tennessee Hillbilly Apr 28 #10
Smelvis will use his sharpie malaise Apr 28 #12
Anyone who wants plywood better get it now before hurricane price gouging starts. sybylla Apr 28 #13
And other hurricane necessities malaise Apr 28 #21
Kinda what I figured. Here's a look at how El Nino and La Nina figure in. ancianita Apr 28 #16
Thanks for this malaise Apr 28 #18
Absolutely! We're in the same hurricane zone! ancianita Apr 28 #23
Hurricane Andrew. twodogsbarking Apr 28 #17
Wow! malaise Apr 28 #20
Proof it only takes 1 n/t Cheezoholic Apr 28 #28
Dear Goddess, I hope they are wayyyyyyy wrong in their modeling. niyad Apr 28 #24
I live in upstate NY mgardener Apr 28 #25
Great post malaise Apr 28 #34
In keeping with climate chage changes. Prairie_Seagull Apr 28 #27
Thanks p malaise Apr 28 #35
RSO rso Apr 28 #29
Heavy wind rotation north of Columbia right now. OnlinePoker Apr 28 #30
Mr Weatherman was talking about this malaise Apr 28 #36
Magats are causing this, just to defeat Biden and other Dems. DontBelieveEastisEas Apr 28 #31
I wonder if Pacific Ocean cyclone activity has followed similar increases? captain queeg Apr 28 #32
I'm in Southern Oz canetoad Apr 28 #41
Last year malaise Apr 29 #49
I hope for the best for all. Solly Mack Apr 28 #33
And you're in the middle of it malaise Apr 28 #37
Yep. Solly Mack Apr 28 #38
All the best for the coming season malaise Apr 28 #39
We're under a Tornado Watch right now. Also, a Flood Warning that is in its 3rd week. Solly Mack Apr 28 #45
Don't Look Up! Nanjeanne Apr 28 #40
give Q,X, Y + Z a chance. pansypoo53219 Apr 28 #46
Here are the names. In case anyone is interested ecstatic Apr 28 #47
Thanks malaise Apr 29 #48
Scared, a little! lark Apr 29 #51

NickB79

(19,298 posts)
1. Florida's insurance crisis could finally implode
Sun Apr 28, 2024, 01:24 PM
Apr 28

Maybe DeSantis will start to believe climate change is real.

MOMFUDSKI

(5,787 posts)
6. He is doing nothing about the insurance
Sun Apr 28, 2024, 01:34 PM
Apr 28

rates. This allows northern MAGA $$$ to move to Florida as they can afford to. It will become a State with no services in the end. The worker bees will have to go to where they can afford to live.

Happy Hoosier

(7,479 posts)
50. And they'll complain that "no one wants to work anymore"
Mon Apr 29, 2024, 09:25 AM
Apr 29

after they've priced the state out of livability.

I'm curious what the big theme parks do for insurance. At this point, they have to be considering self-insurance.

Magoo48

(4,722 posts)
14. It probably doesn't matter what that fucking Turkey believes or not.
Sun Apr 28, 2024, 03:05 PM
Apr 28

Sadly, even those who do believe in climate change can’t or won’t behave accordingly. The reality, according to the latest, best science, is that our Earth must pull as one massive engine to partially restrict the coming climate catastrophe. The first world is not willing to sacrifice according to the magnitude needed. The first world will not be inconvenienced,

Sky Jewels

(7,200 posts)
19. Oh, DeSantis and all the Republican-Fascists know it's real.
Sun Apr 28, 2024, 03:29 PM
Apr 28

They have chosen to pretend it's fake because that serves their agenda of enabling the uber rich and corporations to keep operating in rape-pillage-and-plunder-the-Earth mode.

ornotna

(10,810 posts)
7. We were hammered by Ian
Sun Apr 28, 2024, 01:39 PM
Apr 28

Still fresh in the memory banks.

Hopefully we only see outer bands this year. (fingers crossed)

Think. Again.

(8,843 posts)
9. Gee, if only we had some kind of warning...
Sun Apr 28, 2024, 01:46 PM
Apr 28

A page from Guy Callendar’s 1938 paper shows how he tracked and calculated CO2 changes, all in his spare time. GS Callendar, 1938

A mild-mannered biker triggered a huge debate over humans’ role in climate change – in the early 20th century

In 1938, a British engineer and amateur meteorologist made a discovery that set off a fierce debate about climate change.

Scientists had known for decades that carbon dioxide could trap heat and warm the planet. But Guy Callendar was the first to connect human activities to global warming.

He showed that land temperatures had increased over the previous half-century, and he theorized that people were unwittingly raising Earth’s temperature by burning fossil fuels in furnaces, factories and even his beloved motorcycles.

When Callendar published his findings, it set off a firestorm. The scientific establishment saw him as an outsider and a bit of a meddling gentleman scientist. But, he was right.

His theory became widely known as “the Callendar Effect.” Today, it’s known as global warming. Callendar defended his theory until his death in 1964, increasingly bewildered that the science met such resistance from those who did not understand it.

Source: https://theconversation.com/a-mild-mannered-biker-triggered-a-huge-debate-over-humans-role-in-climate-change-in-the-early-20th-century-170954

sybylla

(8,533 posts)
13. Anyone who wants plywood better get it now before hurricane price gouging starts.
Sun Apr 28, 2024, 02:49 PM
Apr 28

It's no wonder new home prices are ridiculous. We've had nothing but devastating hurricane seasons for most of a decade now.

ancianita

(36,221 posts)
16. Kinda what I figured. Here's a look at how El Nino and La Nina figure in.
Sun Apr 28, 2024, 03:19 PM
Apr 28

Start 2:05 for likely Niño/Niña effects

mgardener

(1,825 posts)
25. I live in upstate NY
Sun Apr 28, 2024, 04:27 PM
Apr 28

I have been a gardener for over 45 years here and in Vt.
We have always been a Zone 4 area. I live near, not on Lake Champlain
I am a 5b now.
I have been able to extend my vegetable gardens by about 2 months from when I first started to garden.
We are opening our pool a full 3 weeks early to prevent algae growth. We close it 2-3 -weeks later.

Those who do not believe in climate change are not paying attention

Prairie_Seagull

(3,348 posts)
27. In keeping with climate chage changes.
Sun Apr 28, 2024, 04:33 PM
Apr 28

For plant hardiness 'zones'. About 50% of our country is now a 1/2 zone hotter. I don't know which plants are going to be harder to grow but the planet is groaning.

https://planthardiness.ars.usda.gov/

on edit: This is based on 30 years of data.

rso

(2,276 posts)
29. RSO
Sun Apr 28, 2024, 04:38 PM
Apr 28

Maybe, but I live in South Florida and the hurricane season forecasts have almost always predicted unprecedented activity even when the season turned out to be quiet. Definitely believe in climate change and maybe I’m just doing some wishful thinking.

31. Magats are causing this, just to defeat Biden and other Dems.
Sun Apr 28, 2024, 04:44 PM
Apr 28

They are driving their vehicles more than usual just so that there is a higher chance that a Hurricane will hit in September or Octobe.
They expect oil refineries to be shut down and the skyrocketing gas prices to get Drumph over the line.

I hope their plans do not succeed.

canetoad

(17,215 posts)
41. I'm in Southern Oz
Sun Apr 28, 2024, 05:53 PM
Apr 28

And we're just coming off the tropical cyclone season. It's been far busier than usual, with several cyclones in the western Pacific. The Indian Ocean however has been the one to watch. There were many more cyclones than previous years. Many didn't make landfall but sat still for several days before moving off.

As to the eastern Pacific - can't really say but the pattern seems to be more cyclones/hurricanes and increasing intensity.

malaise

(269,283 posts)
49. Last year
Mon Apr 29, 2024, 09:22 AM
Apr 29
https://disasterphilanthropy.org/disasters/cyclone-mocha/

Extremely severe Cyclone Mocha made landfall on May 14, 2023 between Myanmar’s Kyaukpyu township and Cox’s Bazar, Bangladesh, with wind gusts over 134 miles per hour, equivalent to a Category 4 hurricane in the Atlantic.

Mocha was one of the strongest storms ever recorded in Myanmar. Storm surge was estimated at 9-11 feet, and low-lying areas in Myanmar’s Rakhine State and the neighboring southeast Bangladesh coast were inundated. Myanmar received the brunt of the storm’s impact

Solly Mack

(90,800 posts)
45. We're under a Tornado Watch right now. Also, a Flood Warning that is in its 3rd week.
Sun Apr 28, 2024, 08:51 PM
Apr 28

Anything else coming our way right now will find conditions favorable for maximum damage.

ecstatic

(32,786 posts)
47. Here are the names. In case anyone is interested
Sun Apr 28, 2024, 10:23 PM
Apr 28

Here are the 21 names for tropical storms and hurricanes for 2024:

* Alberto

* Beryl

* Chris

* Debby

* Ernesto

* Francine

* Gordon

* Helene

* Isaac

* Joyce

* Kirk

* Leslie

* Milton

* Nadine

* Oscar

* Patty

* Rafael

* Sara

* Tony

* Valerie

* William



So what happens if forecasters run out of names in 2024? It would be a bit different than in years past.
...

Here’s the supplemental list of names: Adria, Braylen, Caridad, Deshawn, Emery, Foster, Gemma, Heath, Isla, Jacobus, Kenzie, Lucio, Makayla, Nola, Orlanda, Pax, Ronin, Sophie, Tayshaun, Viviana and Will.

https://www.al.com/news/2024/04/hurricane-names-2024-here-are-the-21-tropical-storm-names-for-the-season.html


What a weird mix of supplemental names.

lark

(23,192 posts)
51. Scared, a little!
Mon Apr 29, 2024, 10:16 AM
Apr 29

Every year I get worried in the summer, living across from a big river and on the FL coastline. Yes, Jackonville is lucky to be inland on the bay and almost always the storms go up the coast and don't hit here at hurricane strength. It's been since 1962 that we got hit dead center, an experience I hope to never repeat. It was pretty awful and we were some of the lucky ones. The last few years have been very quiet in this part of FL, as far as storms go, not even any near misses in a long time.

I also have concerns for all the other people in the predicted storms' path and hope nothing too devastating their way comes too.

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