A history professor whose formula has successfully predicted the outcome of all but one presidential election since 1984 has indicated that President Joe Biden is tracking to win in 2024.

Allan Lichtman, who has been teaching at American University for five decades, uses a system of 13 “keys” to the White House to make his call.

In a recent interview with the Guardian, Lichtman noted that Biden has already got two keys under his belt: the incumbency key, and the contest key, after he faced no serious contenders for the incumbent party nomination.

“That’s two keys off the top. That means six more keys would have to fall to predict his defeat. A lot would have to go wrong for Biden to lose,” Lichtman said.

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/allan-lichtman-2024-prediction_n_662f53f2e4b09dcb78304547

“Lichtman is best known for the "Keys" system, presented in his books The Thirteen Keys to the Presidency and The Keys to the White House. The system uses thirteen historical factors to predict whether the popular vote in the election for president of the United States will be won by the candidate of the party holding the presidency (regardless of whether the president is the candidate). The keys were selected based on their correlations with the presidential election results from 1860 through 1980, using statistical methods adapted from the work of geophysicist Vladimir Keilis-Borok for predicting earthquakes. The system then correctly predicted the popular vote winner in each of the elections between 1984 and 2012, including a correct prediction of Gore as the popular vote winner in 2000.[11] Lichtman has provided commentary for networks and cable channels such as CNN, MSNBC, and Fox News.[12][13][14] In the 2020 presidential election, Lichtman correctly predicted that Democrat Joe Biden would defeat Republican Donald Trump in both the popular vote and the electoral college.[15][16]”

Perhaps the OP just was in haste. A simple correction is all that is required.

after gore won the popular vote but lose the election, litchman changed the way he characterized the model to say it predicted the popular vote instead of the actual winner.

Lichtman's failed prediction was in 2000, even though he got it half-right that Gore would win the popular vote.

And I have a beard. So none of my inaccuracies are bald-faced.

Biden will almost inevitably win the popular vote. Very likely to win the E.C. if the polls admit the voters who try to vote and the votes are counted.

Will he take the White House? That's a much harder question.

people get, naturally enough, so absorbed in the tactics and details of the political race, but everything about it is shaped by the fundamentals embodied by litchman's keys.

for instance, fundraising. it's natural to infer biden may be headed for a victory because he's doing better in the money department. but in fact, biden's success in raising funds, and donnie's struggles there, are more a reflection of the fact that the underlying keys are (probably) suggesting that biden will win. and people donate more to the candidate/party they think is most likely to win.

that said, i don't think we've got a lock just yet per his model.

donnie already has 2 keys: the incumbent charisma (biden is great, but not jfk/fdr charismatic) key and the party mandate key (republicans pickup house seats in the 2022 midterm)

biden is a lock for primary contest, incumbency, third party, and the challenger charisma keys (litchman gave that key to donnie in 2016; i disagreed even then, and i certainly don't think he's got it this time.)

but i think the rest are still up for grabs.

donnie is likely to win the foreign policy success key. there's a possibility for a peace deal in the middle east, but that's always dicey, and republicans are notorious for sabotaging peace efforts in election years....

donnie is also likely to win the policy change key. i'd argue that a return to normal governing is a major policy change from donnie's time in office, but i doubt litchman sees it that way.

donnie is also probably to win the long term economy key. it's be close but i think we need a pretty strong second quarter to avoid losing this key.

short term economy? i think we'll avoid a recession, but it's close enough that something unusual or unexpected could throw is into a mild, technical recession.

we're probably safe on social unrest and scandal, but who knows. the campus crap could explode, you know republicans will agitate for that, and they'll try to gin up a scandal, they always do, the question is if it will stick enough to matter.

then there's the foreign policy failure -- plenty of room for the middle east situation to blow up in our face.


so i agree that the model favors biden at this time, but i think it's closer than litchman is suggesting.

What does that mean?

Lichtman's prediction was for Gore in the 2000 race.

Who did win the popular vote.