It was 57/41 in 2020. Subtract out that 20% and TSF is around 45%.

If Biden gets about half of those votes, he could win.

I think most DU-ers are politically sophisticated enough to know this is a punch in the gut to his overall support. He doesn't have it and it's only going to get worse, the more court appearances go on.

So who cares if he "wins."

For it appears that the Democrats are getting the message out of what a second term for TSF would mean. For females of child bearing age especially, it has to be downright terrifying.

I think those folks will head to JFK, which isn't a bad thing.

It's nice knowing that the 3rd party candidate takes away from tRump

Since both JFK and JFK Jr. are no longer with us.

thank you for correcting

the real swing voters r suburban woman. ‘soccer moms’. they’ve been deciding elections since w.
joe won on the burb vote.
sick fuck will b CRUSHED.

They are the long view MAGA that are all in on the white fascist hegemony. Most will be there for trump in the general if he makes it that far.

Also, flip back a few years and Obama won Indiana.

They don't always go with the flow.

Weirdly, could be flippable in a 3way race especially

If a Democrat wants to tip the scale, they can ask for a Republican ballot and vote in the Republican primary. Voter registration does not have a place for party affiliation. I wonder if that's partly what has happened.

There are no never-Trumper Republicans. There are only a few who claim to be never-Trumpers.

I won't do a blanket dismissal of the 10% - 20% Haley vote to instead do our own "Butter emails", internalizing the "uncommitted" vote against Biden (that has had a smaller % than the Haley vote against 45).

THAT is the type of thing that is done to continue to promote the narrative of a "'failed' Democratic Party".

The Haley voters are NOT Democrats but they are voters who could leave the top of the ticket blank (with some who might crossover and vote for Biden). Every less vote for 45 (or any GOPer) from the GOP side, although not necessarily helping with the Electoral votes for a red state, CAN help in that state's County/municipal elections (like we just saw happen in a Michigan County Commissioner race with a Commissioner seat flip from red to blue in a deep red county).

How Trump doesn't do as well in red states.

It would all be over, nothing to do about it, it shows a decided lack of enthusiasm, blah blah blah. It happens to Trump, blip, nothing. MSNBC gave it a glancing mention.

And here's another thought. If those 21% of Indiana Republicans will go ahead and vote for the orange blob anyway, why bother to go to a meaningless primary and cast a ballot?

I'm with the OP. Even if Trump loses just 10% of those voters, it's enough to flip Indiana, which is usually a reliably Republican state. That's a disaster he cannot afford.

Voter enthusiasm is a huge aspect of the factoring in polling data. If a pollster gets 1,000 responses, and perceives a high level of voter enthusiasm for one of the candidates, that can swing the polling average five percent in either direction. Yet, in many of the polls that are listed in the composite, in spite of an opposition vote of less than 2%, pollsters are saying Biden's support isn't that enthusiastic, and Trump's is. But what we've seen from primary voters--actual people who show up and cast ballots--is more enthusiasm for Biden and less for Trump. Maybe the pollsters need to go over and check with the exit polls where as many as 30% of those voting in Republican primaries are saying they aren't excited about orange blob and won't vote for him if he's convicted.

My prediction, Biden wins the popular vote by 10 million, and carries 27 states with 367 electoral votes.

RFK Jr. Will take away more votes from Trump than Biden

yet it happened somehow.

Not have their votes count in November.

and I have no problem with that