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marmar

(77,127 posts)
Sat Feb 11, 2012, 04:10 PM Feb 2012

Is disaster now the most optimistic scenario when it comes to climate change?


Published on Saturday, February 11, 2012 by Common Dreams

Is 'Prescription for Disaster' Our 'Most Optimistic' Climate Future?
New data indicates warming of 2C now planet's "most optimistic" scenario

- Common Dreams staff


New climate information from French scientists indicate that global warming of 2 C is the "most optimistic" scenario. Yet this is the amount of warming James Hansen has referred to as a "prescription for disaster."

Agence France-Presse reports on the new climate scenarios:

French scientists unveiling new estimates for global warming said on Thursday the 2 C (3.6 F) goal enshrined by the United Nations was "the most optimistic" scenario left for greenhouse-gas emissions.

The estimates, compiled by five scientific institutes, will be handed to the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for consideration in its next big overview on global warming and its impacts. [...]

The French team said that by 2100, warming over pre-industrial times would range from two degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) to 5.0 C (9.0 F).

The most pessimistic scenarios foresee warming of 3.5-5.0 C (6.3-9.0 F), the scientists said in a press release.

Achieving 2C, "the most optimistic scenario," is possible but "only by applying climate policies to reduce greenhouse gases," they said.
.....................(more)

The complete piece is at: http://www.commondreams.org/headline/2012/02/11-0




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Is disaster now the most optimistic scenario when it comes to climate change? (Original Post) marmar Feb 2012 OP
Probably. hunter Feb 2012 #1
I "love" how GW deniers still deny it even while some countries are already being ravaged by it. FarLeftFist Feb 2012 #2
For many of them, when disaster hits, it will be because of... stillwaiting Feb 2012 #4
When the shit hits the fan Ezlivin Feb 2012 #3
Human beings are bent on self-destruction. Avalux Feb 2012 #5
2 degrees is a certainty, 2,5 very likely and 3 is getting close BelgianMadCow Feb 2012 #6
Well, how the hell can the argument be made most compellingly? jsmirman Feb 2012 #7
I don't have those answers - but you are describing a US situation (and also UK I think) BelgianMadCow Feb 2012 #8
Thanks for the answer jsmirman Feb 2012 #9

hunter

(38,353 posts)
1. Probably.
Sat Feb 11, 2012, 04:35 PM
Feb 2012

More people than ever are going to be on the move escaping the four horsemen of Pestilence, War, Famine, and Death.

wikipedia


FarLeftFist

(6,161 posts)
2. I "love" how GW deniers still deny it even while some countries are already being ravaged by it.
Sat Feb 11, 2012, 04:37 PM
Feb 2012

FACTS don't even make a difference anymore.

stillwaiting

(3,795 posts)
4. For many of them, when disaster hits, it will be because of...
Sat Feb 11, 2012, 06:37 PM
Feb 2012

...The Gays!

God will be punishing us all because of our ever growing acceptance of gay people.

I live around many people that think this way, and their willing ignorance both disgusts and frightens me.

Ezlivin

(8,153 posts)
3. When the shit hits the fan
Sat Feb 11, 2012, 04:47 PM
Feb 2012

They'll deny there ever was a fan.

GW Deniers are as tenacious in their erroneous belief as those who still await the messiah's return.

Avalux

(35,015 posts)
5. Human beings are bent on self-destruction.
Sat Feb 11, 2012, 06:47 PM
Feb 2012

It doesn't really matter what the scientists say, people ignore it and don't believe it until disaster is upon them. Then they'll pray to god to save them, when they could have saved themselves all along.

BelgianMadCow

(5,379 posts)
6. 2 degrees is a certainty, 2,5 very likely and 3 is getting close
Sat Feb 11, 2012, 06:55 PM
Feb 2012

problem is, at 3 degrees you get things like methane ice release from the oceans and also from the permafrost, and then the process becomes non-linear which means it accelerates.
Back in december, such methane hydrates broke loose near Siberia - a process that leads to ice flowing up, becoming a liquid, then a gas, and at the surface you kind of get a vortex HOLE in the sea. These have been observed regularly, some metres in diameter. In december, they were kilometers large (this is from several mainstream sources). That's the same methane that was also released even more than oil in the GOM, and we know they lied their ass of about the oil already - nobody seemed to care about the gas.

This year's cold-crisis now in Europe is due to an unusually strong high pressure zone over the Barentsz Sea, which has developed due to receding arctic ice. 500 people froze to death in Eastern Europe and it's still going on. Snowfall seems to be either nothing or metre+ at once in the Alps, villages being cut off for weeks.

The earth is telling us she's had it imho. Time to react is "short" - and over here, governments all over all killing subsidies for solar panels etc "because the measures are to succesfull and hence become to expensive"...what can I say.

I don't think it's "too late" - but many people are being affected already, and especially when you realise that plants and animals cannot migrate as fast as humans to accomodate temperature zones, things are looking bleak.

Our children will not look kindly on us, if we don't act forcefully.

jsmirman

(4,507 posts)
7. Well, how the hell can the argument be made most compellingly?
Sat Feb 11, 2012, 07:26 PM
Feb 2012

As I've said many times on this board, the whole concept of global warming being a political issue, not a humanity issue is mindboggling to me.

The email conversations about fudging results infuriated me because it's so irresponsible and damaging to something so important.

What is the effective, digestible way to bring clarity on this to, as a start, say, the American people?

Is it to appeal to fear and people's self-interests? I really care about this because I care about the forces this has/will unleash on innocent human and animal victims; I find it nearly impossible to ignore when I think about my city (New York City) drowning under the water.

Everyone in a coastal area should be scared to death. Everyone in a central area, I suspect, should be pretty frightened, as well, because of all the weather-related monstrosities such changes will unleash, to say nothing of destruction of crops, fields, etc.

This issue isn't get pushed forward successfully. Right now, it sure feels like the deniers have won by locking everything up in ridiculous arguments and accusations rather than examination of reality.

What's the best strategy?

Am I wrong in feeling like it clearly has not been hit upon, at present?

BelgianMadCow

(5,379 posts)
8. I don't have those answers - but you are describing a US situation (and also UK I think)
Tue Feb 14, 2012, 09:10 PM
Feb 2012

mainland Europe, and definitely Belgium, is convinced. It is presented as a reality. However, politicians just cut green subsidies across the board (austerity) "because they were getting too popular and thus expensive..."
Also, even though reporting isn't doubtful, people don't grasp the consequences. That mainly is because the timetable for truly catastrofic events is till too far off, I think. And people here tend to think "well a bit warmer and less rain is gonna be nice".

What people don't understand is that the weather also becomes much more extreme, like we have had 9 out of the ten hottest years in the past 10 years, and the cold streak I referred to above. So maybe you can refer to the extremes (draughts etc) more?

I always use the hook - vote green for your children's children, because no other party represents them. It worked on my mom and mother-in-law. I also give out the book "six degrees" - pretty good.

The best presentation I've seen is the one of Al Gore, an inconvenient truth.. It was very well received here, lots of politicians and press there as well. Maybe have a screening?

The mist that is spewed is your local Big Coal propaganda being more succesfull, I would guess.

Germany for instance gets 20% of its electricity from renewables TODAY (as opposed to the 2020 goal). Here in Belgium, all living units need an energy prestation certificate and you can't even build without floor isolation and such. Passive building is "in" for those that can afford it (I just heard of a house that only needs 3 kW power, in winter only. It has thermal solar energy and a heat pump. (ref: my house has a 25 kW oil heater).

However, we plan to import a lot of biomass to achieve our targets, and that I find very doubtful. (canadian pellets)

In any case, try speaking locally, and power to you.

jsmirman

(4,507 posts)
9. Thanks for the answer
Wed Feb 15, 2012, 02:35 AM
Feb 2012

like an alarm clock, I am getting louder and louder and LOUDER in speaking about these things.

I'm sick of people tying it up in some sort of, "well, it's debatable" "agree to disagree" thing. And to people I know who are Republican climate change-deniers (most of the people I know who are in the deniers camp are Republicans), I'm like, "just because you are Republican doesn't mean you have to hate people so much you want to actively harm them."

Al Gore puts many people off who could otherwise be reached. I don't agree with that, but it's the unfortunate reality I've observed. Our environmental law group here has done a screening or two - I could try to get the school to add Inconvenient Truth to the list of things they are going to show. But the deniers have really put their weight into spreading malice toward the movie and claiming it's propaganda. Yay! Show them what they've won... you've won... a destroyed Earth! Crazy.

The problem with this being a US situation is that the US would seem to be so essential to driving change, and my impression that if the US won't sign on to it, the harder to reach countries producing *even more* destructive industrial byproducts are never going to even consider any modifications.

And the US contribution to dangerous industrial byproducts is, of course, far from insignificant.

Personally, I go more for the "terrify people immediately" approach. I may be wrong, but I really feel that if things don't change, we will see unspeakable things within my lifetime. I already cannot remember a decade-long stretch with this many massive disasters at any point during my lifetime.

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