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Capt. Obvious

(9,002 posts)
Thu Apr 23, 2015, 08:30 AM Apr 2015

Polls Finds Rubio Performing Best Against Hillary Clinton

Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) performs the best against Hillary Clinton in a hypothetical presidential race, only trailing her by two percentage points, according to a Quinnipiac University National poll released on Thursday.

In the matchup between Rubio and Clinton, 43 percent of voters supported Rubio and 45 percent supported Clinton. Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) trailed behind Clinton by four points, while former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and Wisconsin Gov. Scott each trailed Clinton by five points.

Rubio led the pack of potential Republican nominees with 13 percent support from Republican voters. Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush received 13 percent support and Walker claimed 11 percent.

Clinton leads the Democratic field with 60 percent support from Democratic voters. Vice President Joe Biden claimed just 10 percent support, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) claimed 8 percent, and former Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley claimed 3 percent.

Quinnipiac surveyed 1,353 registered voters nationwide April 16-21 via phone with a margin of error plus or minus 2.7 percentage points.

TPM
34 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Polls Finds Rubio Performing Best Against Hillary Clinton (Original Post) Capt. Obvious Apr 2015 OP
Assuming this is not an outlier, it sure demonstrates the stupidity of the American voter still_one Apr 2015 #1
Rather jerk store-ish of TPM not to link to the release Capt. Obvious Apr 2015 #2
Also, RCP shows other polls, and they are all over the board still_one Apr 2015 #3
"it sure demonstrates the stupidity of the American voter" Cosmic Kitten Apr 2015 #5
The cognitive dissonance is those who can't..... NCTraveler Apr 2015 #10
Um, not bright, just voting their "values" Cosmic Kitten Apr 2015 #14
Why do you insist on citing polls when you suggesting polling is quackery and manipulative? DemocratSinceBirth Apr 2015 #22
Sooooo close, yet not quite Cosmic Kitten Apr 2015 #23
I am suggesting in all instances one cite all the polls. DemocratSinceBirth Apr 2015 #24
Meh, whatever. Polls are used to manipulate public perception Cosmic Kitten Apr 2015 #28
Depends on how they ask the questions in the poll. Also, having several polls to compare can act as still_one Apr 2015 #30
So winning in 2016 is a now coin toss??? Cosmic Kitten Apr 2015 #4
Just when I thought I was out...they pull me back in DemocratSinceBirth Apr 2015 #6
Interesting how... Cosmic Kitten Apr 2015 #8
You are making a lot of inferences and assumptions. DemocratSinceBirth Apr 2015 #12
What inferences or assumptions? Cosmic Kitten Apr 2015 #16
That people are stupid, that polls are propaganda... DemocratSinceBirth Apr 2015 #17
I didn't say anyone is stupid. Cosmic Kitten Apr 2015 #18
"Is it that saying 600 people out of 1000" DemocratSinceBirth Apr 2015 #19
O'kaaaay Cosmic Kitten Apr 2015 #25
Because those numbers represent larger universes. DemocratSinceBirth Apr 2015 #26
The public would be better served is the did meaningful work... Cosmic Kitten Apr 2015 #27
Proposals for the 1st Presidential debate: FSogol Apr 2015 #7
I don't think Rubio has a prayer of making it out of the GOP sufrommich Apr 2015 #9
I do cali Apr 2015 #11
Meh LordGlenconner Apr 2015 #31
Too early to tell, very crowded field... I don't expect the Bush machine to lose gracefully... DemocratSinceBirth Apr 2015 #15
I don't see Rubio's numbers holding up. winter is coming Apr 2015 #13
And the GOP base,who vote in primaries,deeply sufrommich Apr 2015 #21
Not to mention LordGlenconner Apr 2015 #32
I called Rubio the dark horse in H2O Man's thread Capt. Obvious Apr 2015 #33
I think it's fair to call him a darkhorse LordGlenconner Apr 2015 #34
Pretty much how 2012 went Johonny Apr 2015 #29
Because he's one of the least-knowen Republicans. RandySF Apr 2015 #20

still_one

(92,479 posts)
1. Assuming this is not an outlier, it sure demonstrates the stupidity of the American voter
Thu Apr 23, 2015, 08:48 AM
Apr 2015

Also, within the article, they refer to Walker as "Gov. Scott":

"In the matchup between Rubio and Clinton, 43 percent of voters supported Rubio and 45 percent supported Clinton. Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) trailed behind Clinton by four points, while former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and Wisconsin Gov. Scott each trailed Clinton by five points."

Also, I would like to more details about the poll, that is if it factors in the electoral college count

still_one

(92,479 posts)
3. Also, RCP shows other polls, and they are all over the board
Thu Apr 23, 2015, 08:55 AM
Apr 2015
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_rubio_vs_clinton-3767.html

So I have to wonder about it

Also, if you examine the data, Hillary seems to lead in all demographic groups except the over 55 group, and that makes me wonder if they realize reubio and his position on SS and Medicare?

Cosmic Kitten

(3,498 posts)
5. "it sure demonstrates the stupidity of the American voter"
Thu Apr 23, 2015, 09:18 AM
Apr 2015

Do you really think
American voters are stupid?
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10026553538#post1

When Hillary is up in the polls
voters are smart, when she's down
the voters are stupid?

Is this the *cognitive dissonance*
I've been reading about

 

NCTraveler

(30,481 posts)
10. The cognitive dissonance is those who can't.....
Thu Apr 23, 2015, 09:38 AM
Apr 2015

get their brains far enough past their Clinton hate to make a reasoned argument. You see, you automatically make it about here being up or down. The stupidity of the electorate is the fact that Rubio can pull over forty percent in a poll against Clinton. Nothing to do with Clinton. Guess you think those Rubio supporters are a sign of a really bright electorate. Try to change your reference point.

Cosmic Kitten

(3,498 posts)
14. Um, not bright, just voting their "values"
Thu Apr 23, 2015, 09:42 AM
Apr 2015

You may not esteem
their "values", but Rubio
represents his constituents.

Over 70% of Americans supported
the invasion of Iraq...


Seventy-Two Percent of Americans Support War Against Iraq
Bush approval up 13 points to 71%


http://www.gallup.com/poll/8038/seventytwo-percent-americans-support-war-against-iraq.aspx


How many of those 72%
will vote for Hillary?
Hillary was one of those 72%

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,716 posts)
22. Why do you insist on citing polls when you suggesting polling is quackery and manipulative?
Thu Apr 23, 2015, 10:06 AM
Apr 2015

Why do you insist on citing polls when you suggesting polling is quackery and manipulative?

Here's an example of you suggesting they are manipulative:

Polls are used propaganda.

We like them when they
say nice things, and get bent
when they don't.

Calling Americans stupid
because a poll gives you
a sad is weak sauce.

Advice: Polls are used to
manipulate public perception!
Don't live or die by the polls.
The only "polls" that matter
are elections

-Cosmic Kitten




And here's an example of you suggesting polls are quackery:


Is it that saying 600 people out of 1000
is not as impressive as saying 60%?

-Cosmic Kitten



DemocratSinceBirth

(99,716 posts)
24. I am suggesting in all instances one cite all the polls.
Thu Apr 23, 2015, 10:16 AM
Apr 2015

I am suggesting in all instances one cite all the polls.


I have been pretty consistent.

Cosmic Kitten

(3,498 posts)
28. Meh, whatever. Polls are used to manipulate public perception
Thu Apr 23, 2015, 10:29 AM
Apr 2015

Cite as many as you like.
They all serve the same purpose.

Only difference is who's paying
for the poll and what is their agenda.

still_one

(92,479 posts)
30. Depends on how they ask the questions in the poll. Also, having several polls to compare can act as
Thu Apr 23, 2015, 12:19 PM
Apr 2015

a control of one poll verses another, whether one poll is an outlier, or follows a consensus

Cosmic Kitten

(3,498 posts)
4. So winning in 2016 is a now coin toss???
Thu Apr 23, 2015, 09:15 AM
Apr 2015

Not looking good!

If Obama gets fast track
approval, president Rubio
will have unfettered trade approval


Winning!

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,716 posts)
6. Just when I thought I was out...they pull me back in
Thu Apr 23, 2015, 09:32 AM
Apr 2015



It is interesting that you focus on the poll where our Hillary is leading by two, ignore the poll taken at roughly the same time where she is leading by fourteen, and the average of all the polls where she is leading by eight:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_rubio_vs_clinton-3767.html#polls

Cosmic Kitten

(3,498 posts)
8. Interesting how...
Thu Apr 23, 2015, 09:37 AM
Apr 2015

Polls are used propaganda.

We like them when they
say nice things, and get bent
when they don't.

Calling Americans stupid
because a poll gives you
a sad is weak sauce.

Advice: Polls are used to
manipulate public perception!
Don't live or die by the polls.
The only "polls" that matter
are elections

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,716 posts)
12. You are making a lot of inferences and assumptions.
Thu Apr 23, 2015, 09:40 AM
Apr 2015

I am merely citing all the available polls or a reasonable approximation of what are all the available polls and their findings:


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_rubio_vs_clinton-3767.html#polls

Cosmic Kitten

(3,498 posts)
18. I didn't say anyone is stupid.
Thu Apr 23, 2015, 09:49 AM
Apr 2015

People express their values
through polls and elections.

As to polls being tools of propaganda...
why do they report percentages
and not actual numbers?

Is it that saying 600 people out of 1000
is not as impressive as saying 60%?
Clearly the intent is to manipulate perceptions.

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,716 posts)
19. "Is it that saying 600 people out of 1000"
Thu Apr 23, 2015, 09:58 AM
Apr 2015
Is it that saying 600 people out of 1000
is not as impressive as saying 60%?
Clearly the intent is to manipulate perceptions.

-Cosmic Kitten





They are using representative samples to make inferences about larger populations. This is Statistics 101...


And if you believe polls are of no utility why did you just write this based on a poll?



So winning in 2016 is a now coin toss???

Not looking good!

If Obama gets fast track
approval, president Rubio
will have unfettered trade approval


Winning!

-Cosmic Kitten







Cosmic Kitten

(3,498 posts)
25. O'kaaaay
Thu Apr 23, 2015, 10:17 AM
Apr 2015

I asked and rhetorically answered:

As to polls being tools of propaganda...
why do they report percentages
and not actual numbers?

Is it that saying 600 people out of 1000
is not as impressive as saying 60%?
Clearly the intent is to manipulate perceptions.

-Cosmic Kitten


You helpfully pointed out:
They are using representative samples to make inferences about larger populations. This is Statistics 101...

DemocratSinceBirth


But failed to answer the question directly;
"why do they report percentages
and not actual numbers?"


We both know.
Reporting 60% of Democrats
sounds more impressive than
saying 600 Democrats.

Clearly, poll results reported as
percentages are intended to
manipulate public perception.

It really is that simple.

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,716 posts)
26. Because those numbers represent larger universes.
Thu Apr 23, 2015, 10:23 AM
Apr 2015

The 1,000 people polled represent the electorate the pollster believes will show up at the polls and vote.

This really is a rhetorical debate and not a substantive one...


If pollsters can't make inferences from the relatively few people they contact they might as well close their doors and become onion farmers.

FSogol

(45,562 posts)
7. Proposals for the 1st Presidential debate:
Thu Apr 23, 2015, 09:36 AM
Apr 2015

Temperature in the room will be 105 deg F
A grow bulb will be placed above each candidate
Rubio will have to eat 10 saltine crackers before speaking
Podium will be covered with salt

sufrommich

(22,871 posts)
9. I don't think Rubio has a prayer of making it out of the GOP
Thu Apr 23, 2015, 09:37 AM
Apr 2015

primary. I think he's gunning for vice president to whoever wins the nom.

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,716 posts)
15. Too early to tell, very crowded field... I don't expect the Bush machine to lose gracefully...
Thu Apr 23, 2015, 09:43 AM
Apr 2015

Look what they did to Dukakis, McCain, and Kerry...

winter is coming

(11,785 posts)
13. I don't see Rubio's numbers holding up.
Thu Apr 23, 2015, 09:41 AM
Apr 2015

He's an empty suit, and his nervous dry mouth problem alone could do him in.

 

LordGlenconner

(1,348 posts)
32. Not to mention
Thu Apr 23, 2015, 12:24 PM
Apr 2015

The fact that he's an ethnic minority. There will be a huge swath of their primary electorate who might like him, but just won't be able to pull the trigger for him because of his roots.

Someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't believe a minority has ever won a GOP primary or caucus.

 

LordGlenconner

(1,348 posts)
34. I think it's fair to call him a darkhorse
Thu Apr 23, 2015, 04:46 PM
Apr 2015

But it remains to be seen just how much his Cuban heritage will affect his ability to make the sale with people who like to tell ethnic jokes with their friends. I don't think there's any doubt he has potential to do very well. But I also think there's a ceiling in a party where the electorate is comprised largely of xenophobes and bigots.

In my view because a few polls say otherwise and some analysts say otherwise doesn't mean we can just say "hey none of that will matter when the votes start getting counted" without seeing it in practice. It's possible that many will overcome their bigotry because of their lust for the WH but time will tell.

I'm way more interested in the GOP primary this time. It could be epic political theater.

Johonny

(20,917 posts)
29. Pretty much how 2012 went
Thu Apr 23, 2015, 11:16 AM
Apr 2015

Each GOP came in and polled better than the idiot voters knew. Once they got to know the new idiot his poll numbers slipped. I don't see how this year will be any different in that everyone of their candidates is moronic beyond belief.

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