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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsMy Prediction: Bernie Sanders Will Win the White House
A hopeful and reasoned argument on Washington's Blog today:
Based on the net-favorability ratings of candidates in the first poll that had really meaningful results on that most important of all factors (which poll had just been published), and also based on the latest available reliable poll of Americans ideological preferences (which had been taken in 2011, but thats okay because ideology changes only very slowly), I concluded that Vermont U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders was likely to surprise on the upside at the start of his contest, and that, Sanders would probably be able to crush any Republican except perhaps Rand Paul, if he were to win the Democratic primaries. He is already surprising on the upside (though pundits havent yet caught on that Hillarys a dud), and so I am now predicting that Sanders will win, first, the Democratic nomination, and then the White House.
http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2015/06/my-prediction-bernie-sanders-will-win-the-white-house.html
liberal N proud
(60,352 posts)TeacherB87
(249 posts)but I don't think he has a chance in hell of doing so. This country is bought and paid for. There's no way the powers that be will allow such a thing. I'd love for reality to prove me wrong.
I hate liars
(165 posts)I'm tired of reading posts about how Bernie is "unelectable" or "working uphill". If we don't open our minds to the possibility of positive change, it won't happen.
I read an article earlier this week on [link:https://www.jacobinmag.com/2015/05/bernie-sanders-president-socialist-primary/| suggesting that Sanders might split the Democratic party like Gene McCarthy did in '68.
I don't doubt that as a possible outcome, but it's not predestined. Bernie truly reflects the midpoint of American political views. What we need to do is break through the political and media bias that prevents the voting public from realizing that. And I think that's doable.
I hate liars
(165 posts)Don't know why the link to Jacobin didn't post correctly, here it is:
[link:https://www.jacobinmag.com/2015/05/bernie-sanders-president-socialist-primary/|
TeacherB87
(249 posts)this could ever happen. I used to be an activist. I campaigned, I protested, I phone-banked. And now I'm just cynical it seems. It's actually kind of crazy how much I've changed since I eat started reading DU 11 years ago (I mostly read and only recently started posting).
I don't really know what could convince me to change my mind. But that's my problem to deal with I suppose.
sabrina 1
(62,325 posts)Group KNOW that not only CAN Bernie win, the numbers show that he WILL win, absent something unforeseen happening.
When you see posts that say he cannot win, that the Old Media and the Status Quo talking. And both are so out of touch with the American people it is simply stunning.
Bernie otoh, KNEW there was a huge vacuum waiting for someone to fill it.
The decline in membership in both major parties, eg, means the base of both parties has shrunk. Many of those leaving both parties are now Registered Independents. THAT is the vote to watch, while Bernie has already tapped into the Dem Base, he KNOWS that the largest voting bloc in the country is the Indy vote right now, over 42% of registered voters.
That vote will not go to a Corporate Candidate.
And then there are the non-voters, a huge potential voting bloc most disgusted with politics and opting out of the system.
Bernie has the appeal to bring them back. I eg, registered one non-voter for Bernie a few days ago because he is such an easy candidate to sell, he appeals to ordinary people, they hear him talk, they learn how consistent he has been and they are sold.
Neither candidate from either major party can get these huge voting blocs because it is the corporatism that drove them out of their parties and in large numbers away from the electoral system altogether.
All we have to do is target the Indy and non-voter demographics, and Bernie can win in a landslide.
This is the Bernie Sanders Group on DU http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=forum&id=1280
Welcome to DU btw, and Bernie IS going to win this election!
jwirr
(39,215 posts)not. We are the hope. Bernie actually said that last night. That is why we have some hope.
Scootaloo
(25,699 posts)It can advertise, but it can't buy votes or enthusiasm. it's not a question of someone "letting" something happen. For all the assults against it, we still have a pretty solid democratic system - at least the voting part of it.
GO out, vote your conscience. get other people to do so as well.
Paka
(2,760 posts)votes for him, it will happen. Fight the powers that be and prove them wrong.
MrMickeysMom
(20,453 posts)I believe it.
NoJusticeNoPeace
(5,018 posts)Oh god, I wanna be in rightwing town that night
I wanna see the heads smashing up against the walls
MrMickeysMom
(20,453 posts)
because, frankly, I can't see us surviving fascism any other way.
We're made as hell and we will not wish to take it any more with anymore weak, ill-defined pseudo-progressive rhetoric, which is all I've heard from the HRC camp.
People here hate to talk about the Rand Paul effect, but the only person that can come out of the Bush debacle after a black Democrat would (in my mind) BE a social Democrat who has demonstrated in word and action that he will fight for those of us who don't want to take it anymore.
Initech
(100,151 posts)*spoilers*
The exploding heads scene is what I envision happening to the Republicans the day that happens.
freshwest
(53,661 posts)Just like the Romney smack down was delicious!
It has been a week and one day since President Obama kicked Mitt Romney's ass! I'm still celebrating!
Posted by ProSense in response to that pic by EarlG.
I want to see that moment again.
Autumn
(45,120 posts)I believe Bernie can and will win. People are hungry for what he stands for.
NYC_SKP
(68,644 posts)K/R
mother earth
(6,002 posts)MissDeeds
(7,499 posts)He's gaining momentum because his message appeals to people and he is the real deal; no hidden agendas, no baggage to explain away, just an honest dedication to making life better for the people of this country.
madokie
(51,076 posts)I've been saying this for days now.
Bernie is talking to the average person in a voice we all can hear and talking about things we can all identify with
Bernie will make us a damn good President too
Bernie is honest as the day is long as my dad would say
muntrv
(14,505 posts)on point
(2,506 posts)It is through the people
Reter
(2,188 posts)How many states will he carry?
Ed Suspicious
(8,879 posts)I think more than 270.
jtuck004
(15,882 posts)do much of anything these days? More than that...
Quite literally we have tens of millions of people, and their children, consigned to servitude to the banks for the duration of their lives, and their children's lives. (Add it up kids - the banks want their trillions, and hardly anyone has it anymore, so you are just refinancing and paying payments till you your kid's die. lol. Aren't you smart. No kids? A trillion in student debt will require that we be told of changes needed to social security - bet me). Any place such a state exists is a fertile place for support.
What's really ironic is how many of his issues we share with tea party folks and republicans. There is the potential for a hell of a force to be built.
Will everyone move? Doubt it, but it could leave a squabbling group of Democrats and Republicans in the corner while the rest of us move forward.
Then again, I think the only hope we have is to form, again, one big union. Short of that is just enabling the modern plantation.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)zentrum
(9,866 posts)
we half live by our dreams.
Not cynical about his native ability to win but our system is rigged and they just won't allow it: Not the media, or the voting machines, or the money guys.
But, let's try because that's how longer term movements are built.
retrowire
(10,345 posts)But in the end this is the best way to look at it. It's better to try for him rather than just vote for who you think will win.
Don't vote just to be on the winning team. Vote to be on the RIGHT team.
zentrum
(9,866 posts)...and Warren and Feingold there is no right team any more.
I'll vote for the Dem in the end no matter who it is because the other "team" is practically sociopathic.
retrowire
(10,345 posts)I'll fight for Bernie until his battle is over. If he isn't nominated, then it's back to choosing the lesser of two evils. sigh...
bigwillq
(72,790 posts)I hope. But we shall see.
alcibiades_mystery
(36,437 posts)Bookmark that.
tiredtoo
(2,949 posts)Bookmarked
bluestateguy
(44,173 posts)He might win one or two.
Agschmid
(28,749 posts)alcibiades_mystery
(36,437 posts)He'll be out the day after Super Tuesday.
He won't win Iowa. He won't win Nevada, Colorado, or Minnesota caucuses.
So, no. No caucuses either.
workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)For sure.
Scootaloo
(25,699 posts)Was the moon landing fake?
Do you believe that Budweiser really is the "king of beers"?
alcibiades_mystery
(36,437 posts)The moon landing was a real event.
Budweiser is shit. I drink local crafts.
Bernie Sanders will not win a single primary.
wendylaroux
(2,925 posts)peecoolyour
(336 posts)MrMickeysMom
(20,453 posts)The rest will be, as they say, history.
workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)for sure.
taught_me_patience
(5,477 posts)he probably won't garner more than 25% in any of them except Vermont.
kenfrequed
(7,865 posts)Seriously, if I saw someone talking about something I consider improbable or unlikely I would have to have some serious emotional attachment to bother commenting on it at all.
alcibiades_mystery
(36,437 posts)That's dumb. This is a discussion board.
kenfrequed
(7,865 posts)But I don't post on every single thread on said discussion board. If I post on one thread in twenty I feel like I have been hitting the internet too hard that day. I don't even add a 'like' to one thread in twenty and that takes very little time at all.
Also, since it is a legitimate question on a discussion board I don't consider asking said question "dumb" but thanks for evaluating the relative intelligence of my question.
treestar
(82,383 posts)to bother to comment on a thread declaring an unlikely event?
Saying Bernie is going to win the WH is like saying Pigs are going to fly. So if I came in to a thread to say dude, pigs are not going to fly, that evidences serious emotional attachment to the idea pigs can't fly?
What serious emotional attachment? To what? The idea Bernie can't win? That's how you describe the assertion of Bernie is not likely to win? I wonder who has the serious emotional attachment here.
kenfrequed
(7,865 posts)I see your tactic. Answer all questions with questions while inserting negative assertions into the discussion. Never mind. You win a lifetime supply of cellular respiration.
Congrats and goodbye!
treestar
(82,383 posts)your first post there was rude. Own it.
tiredtoo
(2,949 posts)But am looking forward to a no holds barred attack from the few and the mighty.
A David and Goliath battle for sure, enjoy the ride.
kacekwl
(7,028 posts)he needs to have a running mate who has a sane foreign policy record. Then all bases are covered. WIN !
I hate liars
(165 posts)Considering that he voted against the Iraq war.
My own bias is toward non-interventionist policy. Our history, especially in the Middle East, is one of creating problems to justify intervention. ISIS is a case in point.
jwirr
(39,215 posts)Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)But never say never.
AzDar
(14,023 posts)Michigan-Arizona
(762 posts)DesertFlower
(11,649 posts)fbc
(1,668 posts)Initech
(100,151 posts)What if Bernie gets in the White House? Will he actually have a compliant Congress to work with or will they give him the cold shoulder on day 1 like they did to Obama? That's what I am worried about.
HooptieWagon
(17,064 posts)They will do so to any Democratic President....Hillary, whomever.
Where he will have better success than Hillary is that he's not as polarizing, and he had years in the House before his years in the Senate. He's no rookie (like Obama), of course he'll have a plan to deal with an obstructionist R Congress.
brooklynite
(95,036 posts)I hate liars
(165 posts)There are very few people in this world whose word I would accept uncritically. What matters is the argument, not the person.
For the record, Zuesse is a frequent poster on Washington's Blog. He has written on a variety of topics, with many recent posts on the debacle in Ukraine. This is the first post of his that I can recall on the Presidential race.
I don't detect that Zuesse has any particular political axe to grind, but that's beside the point. If there's a flaw in his reasoning, call him out for that. Otherwise, it matters not who he is.
Cha
(298,112 posts)napi21
(45,806 posts)I agree with almost all of his ideas, however, his instance that he's a Democratic Socialist and so many Americans don't understand what that means (they think socialist means Hitler) and all the rumblings about his age, AND there aren't enough American people who can contribute enough $$ to enable him to fight off his opponents, I think those things will prevent hi from winning.
workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)See you in the primaries
immoderate
(20,885 posts)Elections as we know, are often not predictable. They are subject to, what is called in chaos theory 'strange attractors.' The big unknown in all these cases is voter turnout. The money, the electoral college, etc., all add uncertainties to the system, which has the potential to introduce tipping points.
In short, anything can happen.
--imm
tularetom
(23,664 posts)But she has an even bigger disadvantage - she's Hillary Clinton. Completely charisma challenged, ill at ease at the podium, uncomfortable with real people, a dead giveaway when lying, she doesn't wear well.
Bernie Sanders has the strength of his beliefs and it shows. Clinton basically has no core beliefs and that shows as well.
Bill Clinton could pull this off on the basis of his good ol boy charm. Obama could do it with his unflappable Mr Cool persona. Hillary - nah, she got nothin.
I like Sen Sanders chances for the nomination over the long haul. Can't say for sure he'll win the general but I believe he has a better shot at it than Clinton.
peecoolyour
(336 posts)And gleeful about the possibility of him losing...
Tells me everything I need to know about their character and positions.
stevenleser
(32,886 posts)He's not getting near the one at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave in DC unless Onama or Hillary invite him.
Orsino
(37,428 posts)But I believe he would be the best choice, for a nation that matures enough to make that choice.