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I hate liars

(165 posts)
Tue Jun 2, 2015, 07:28 PM Jun 2015

My Prediction: Bernie Sanders Will Win the White House

A hopeful and reasoned argument on Washington's Blog today:

Based on the net-favorability ratings of candidates in the first poll that had really meaningful results on that most important of all factors (which poll had just been published), and also based on the latest available reliable poll of Americans’ ideological preferences (which had been taken in 2011, but that’s okay because ideology changes only very slowly), I concluded that Vermont U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders was likely to surprise on the upside at the start of his contest, and that, “Sanders would probably be able to crush any Republican except perhaps Rand Paul, if he were to win the Democratic primaries.” He is already surprising on the upside (though pundits haven’t yet caught on that Hillary’s a dud), and so I am now predicting that Sanders will win, first, the Democratic nomination, and then the White House.


http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2015/06/my-prediction-bernie-sanders-will-win-the-white-house.html
71 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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My Prediction: Bernie Sanders Will Win the White House (Original Post) I hate liars Jun 2015 OP
Bookmarking liberal N proud Jun 2015 #1
I'd love to see it happen. TeacherB87 Jun 2015 #2
Agreed, but this is the first post I've seen that goes beyond just "hoping"... I hate liars Jun 2015 #5
Here's the link.. I hate liars Jun 2015 #6
I guess I've lost hope that TeacherB87 Jun 2015 #17
Then you need to join the Bernie Group here if you haven't already. Because most of those in that sabrina 1 Jun 2015 #60
One correction: Most of the leaders of this country are bought and paid for but we the people are jwirr Jun 2015 #23
Money only does so much Scootaloo Jun 2015 #31
If you and every one who would "love to see it happen," Paka Jun 2015 #36
Read it, and see if you still feel that way... MrMickeysMom Jun 2015 #38
Imagine an admitted Democratic Socialist following a Black Democratic politician for PRESIDENT LOL NoJusticeNoPeace Jun 2015 #3
I've imagined and envisioned... MrMickeysMom Jun 2015 #39
If you have not seen Kingsmen: The Secret Service yet I highly recommend it. Initech Jun 2015 #45
I'd love it! He has my vote in the primary. If he gets nominated, he'll get another vote from me. freshwest Jun 2015 #52
Interesting read. From his pen to gods ears Autumn Jun 2015 #4
Given that Hillary will tank, yes I think Bernie could win the GE NYC_SKP Jun 2015 #7
Bernie seriously appeals to more than us dems, & people are fed up big time. mother earth Jun 2015 #8
I really think Bernie can win it MissDeeds Jun 2015 #9
Bernie Sanders will be our next POTUS madokie Jun 2015 #10
I hope it happens. muntrv Jun 2015 #11
My impression is HRC thinks the way to power is through the PTB. Bernie thinks on point Jun 2015 #12
And just how many Electoral Votes will he get? Reter Jun 2015 #13
What do you think? Ed Suspicious Jun 2015 #14
How many states did the Republicans carry that are held up as the reason we can or cannot jtuck004 Jun 2015 #24
... DCBob Jun 2015 #15
R'ccing because zentrum Jun 2015 #16
I have faith... retrowire Jun 2015 #29
Except for Bernie zentrum Jun 2015 #44
Definitely true retrowire Jun 2015 #61
I hate liars. bigwillq Jun 2015 #18
Bernie Sanders won't win a single primary alcibiades_mystery Jun 2015 #19
Ok tiredtoo Jun 2015 #21
Outrageous! Absurd! Unthinkable! bluestateguy Jun 2015 #26
What about a caucus? Agschmid Jun 2015 #27
Nope alcibiades_mystery Jun 2015 #50
"He'll be out the day after Super Tuesday." workinclasszero Jun 2015 #54
Tell me, do you also believe that global warming is a hoax? Scootaloo Jun 2015 #32
Global warming/climate change is quite real alcibiades_mystery Jun 2015 #49
oh snap wendylaroux Jun 2015 #33
Bookmark this: peecoolyour Jun 2015 #37
You've assured us that statement will be around... MrMickeysMom Jun 2015 #41
Much better odds of this happening workinclasszero Jun 2015 #53
Not only will he not win a primary taught_me_patience Jun 2015 #55
Then why do you care? kenfrequed Jun 2015 #63
You do you, homie alcibiades_mystery Jun 2015 #64
WTF? treestar Jun 2015 #65
Yes... kenfrequed Jun 2015 #68
Serious emotional attachment treestar Jun 2015 #69
Never mind kenfrequed Jun 2015 #70
a non-answer treestar Jun 2015 #71
I'm in for the win! tiredtoo Jun 2015 #20
When Bernie wins the nomination kacekwl Jun 2015 #22
I'm wondering what a sane foreign policy record might look like if not Bernie's own record... I hate liars Jun 2015 #25
The same person Hillary is supposed to have Castro - the one who is at HUD - not the one in Cuba. jwirr Jun 2015 #30
I think he's a long shot. Warren DeMontague Jun 2015 #28
K & R AzDar Jun 2015 #34
I believe he can win & so hope you are right! n/t Michigan-Arizona Jun 2015 #35
i hope you're right. DesertFlower Jun 2015 #40
I concur fbc Jun 2015 #42
I seriously hope that happens. It's Congress I'm worried about. Initech Jun 2015 #43
Of course the Rs will try to obstruct. HooptieWagon Jun 2015 #47
And I'll ask again...who's Eric Zuesse? brooklynite Jun 2015 #46
Who is anyone who makes a reasoned argument? Does it matter? I hate liars Jun 2015 #56
He's someone who calls Hillary "a dud" .. but I think he's projecting. Cha Jun 2015 #67
I doubt it. napi21 Jun 2015 #48
All righty then workinclasszero Jun 2015 #51
It's a reasonable scenario. At least right now. immoderate Jun 2015 #57
Hillary Clinton has one big advantage - bazillions of dollars tularetom Jun 2015 #58
Anyone who is offended by Bernie's presence in this race. peecoolyour Jun 2015 #59
Only if you paint a regar house white and give it away to him stevenleser Jun 2015 #62
A lot of strange and/or terrible things would have to happen, I think. Orsino Jun 2015 #66
 

TeacherB87

(249 posts)
2. I'd love to see it happen.
Tue Jun 2, 2015, 07:34 PM
Jun 2015

but I don't think he has a chance in hell of doing so. This country is bought and paid for. There's no way the powers that be will allow such a thing. I'd love for reality to prove me wrong.

I hate liars

(165 posts)
5. Agreed, but this is the first post I've seen that goes beyond just "hoping"...
Tue Jun 2, 2015, 07:55 PM
Jun 2015

I'm tired of reading posts about how Bernie is "unelectable" or "working uphill". If we don't open our minds to the possibility of positive change, it won't happen.

I read an article earlier this week on [link:https://www.jacobinmag.com/2015/05/bernie-sanders-president-socialist-primary/| suggesting that Sanders might split the Democratic party like Gene McCarthy did in '68.

I don't doubt that as a possible outcome, but it's not predestined. Bernie truly reflects the midpoint of American political views. What we need to do is break through the political and media bias that prevents the voting public from realizing that. And I think that's doable.

 

TeacherB87

(249 posts)
17. I guess I've lost hope that
Tue Jun 2, 2015, 09:37 PM
Jun 2015

this could ever happen. I used to be an activist. I campaigned, I protested, I phone-banked. And now I'm just cynical it seems. It's actually kind of crazy how much I've changed since I eat started reading DU 11 years ago (I mostly read and only recently started posting).

I don't really know what could convince me to change my mind. But that's my problem to deal with I suppose.

sabrina 1

(62,325 posts)
60. Then you need to join the Bernie Group here if you haven't already. Because most of those in that
Wed Jun 3, 2015, 12:36 AM
Jun 2015

Group KNOW that not only CAN Bernie win, the numbers show that he WILL win, absent something unforeseen happening.

When you see posts that say he cannot win, that the Old Media and the Status Quo talking. And both are so out of touch with the American people it is simply stunning.

Bernie otoh, KNEW there was a huge vacuum waiting for someone to fill it.

The decline in membership in both major parties, eg, means the base of both parties has shrunk. Many of those leaving both parties are now Registered Independents. THAT is the vote to watch, while Bernie has already tapped into the Dem Base, he KNOWS that the largest voting bloc in the country is the Indy vote right now, over 42% of registered voters.

That vote will not go to a Corporate Candidate.

And then there are the non-voters, a huge potential voting bloc most disgusted with politics and opting out of the system.

Bernie has the appeal to bring them back. I eg, registered one non-voter for Bernie a few days ago because he is such an easy candidate to sell, he appeals to ordinary people, they hear him talk, they learn how consistent he has been and they are sold.

Neither candidate from either major party can get these huge voting blocs because it is the corporatism that drove them out of their parties and in large numbers away from the electoral system altogether.

All we have to do is target the Indy and non-voter demographics, and Bernie can win in a landslide.

This is the Bernie Sanders Group on DU http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=forum&id=1280

Welcome to DU btw, and Bernie IS going to win this election!

jwirr

(39,215 posts)
23. One correction: Most of the leaders of this country are bought and paid for but we the people are
Tue Jun 2, 2015, 09:50 PM
Jun 2015

not. We are the hope. Bernie actually said that last night. That is why we have some hope.

 

Scootaloo

(25,699 posts)
31. Money only does so much
Tue Jun 2, 2015, 10:02 PM
Jun 2015

It can advertise, but it can't buy votes or enthusiasm. it's not a question of someone "letting" something happen. For all the assults against it, we still have a pretty solid democratic system - at least the voting part of it.

GO out, vote your conscience. get other people to do so as well.

Paka

(2,760 posts)
36. If you and every one who would "love to see it happen,"
Tue Jun 2, 2015, 10:16 PM
Jun 2015

votes for him, it will happen. Fight the powers that be and prove them wrong.

NoJusticeNoPeace

(5,018 posts)
3. Imagine an admitted Democratic Socialist following a Black Democratic politician for PRESIDENT LOL
Tue Jun 2, 2015, 07:34 PM
Jun 2015


Oh god, I wanna be in rightwing town that night



I wanna see the heads smashing up against the walls

MrMickeysMom

(20,453 posts)
39. I've imagined and envisioned...
Tue Jun 2, 2015, 10:21 PM
Jun 2015

… because, frankly, I can't see us surviving fascism any other way.

We're made as hell and we will not wish to take it any more with anymore weak, ill-defined pseudo-progressive rhetoric, which is all I've heard from the HRC camp.

People here hate to talk about the Rand Paul effect, but the only person that can come out of the Bush debacle after a black Democrat would (in my mind) BE a social Democrat who has demonstrated in word and action that he will fight for those of us who don't want to take it anymore.

Initech

(100,151 posts)
45. If you have not seen Kingsmen: The Secret Service yet I highly recommend it.
Tue Jun 2, 2015, 10:43 PM
Jun 2015

*spoilers*






The exploding heads scene is what I envision happening to the Republicans the day that happens.

freshwest

(53,661 posts)
52. I'd love it! He has my vote in the primary. If he gets nominated, he'll get another vote from me.
Tue Jun 2, 2015, 11:36 PM
Jun 2015

Just like the Romney smack down was delicious!

It has been a week and one day since President Obama kicked Mitt Romney's ass! I'm still celebrating!



Posted by ProSense in response to that pic by EarlG.

I want to see that moment again.

Autumn

(45,120 posts)
4. Interesting read. From his pen to gods ears
Tue Jun 2, 2015, 07:39 PM
Jun 2015

I believe Bernie can and will win. People are hungry for what he stands for.

 

MissDeeds

(7,499 posts)
9. I really think Bernie can win it
Tue Jun 2, 2015, 08:24 PM
Jun 2015

He's gaining momentum because his message appeals to people and he is the real deal; no hidden agendas, no baggage to explain away, just an honest dedication to making life better for the people of this country.

madokie

(51,076 posts)
10. Bernie Sanders will be our next POTUS
Tue Jun 2, 2015, 08:30 PM
Jun 2015

I've been saying this for days now.

Bernie is talking to the average person in a voice we all can hear and talking about things we can all identify with

Bernie will make us a damn good President too
Bernie is honest as the day is long as my dad would say

 

jtuck004

(15,882 posts)
24. How many states did the Republicans carry that are held up as the reason we can or cannot
Tue Jun 2, 2015, 09:50 PM
Jun 2015

do much of anything these days? More than that...

Quite literally we have tens of millions of people, and their children, consigned to servitude to the banks for the duration of their lives, and their children's lives. (Add it up kids - the banks want their trillions, and hardly anyone has it anymore, so you are just refinancing and paying payments till you your kid's die. lol. Aren't you smart. No kids? A trillion in student debt will require that we be told of changes needed to social security - bet me). Any place such a state exists is a fertile place for support.

What's really ironic is how many of his issues we share with tea party folks and republicans. There is the potential for a hell of a force to be built.

Will everyone move? Doubt it, but it could leave a squabbling group of Democrats and Republicans in the corner while the rest of us move forward.

Then again, I think the only hope we have is to form, again, one big union. Short of that is just enabling the modern plantation.

zentrum

(9,866 posts)
16. R'ccing because
Tue Jun 2, 2015, 09:32 PM
Jun 2015

…we half live by our dreams.

Not cynical about his native ability to win but our system is rigged and they just won't allow it: Not the media, or the voting machines, or the money guys.

But, let's try because that's how longer term movements are built.

retrowire

(10,345 posts)
29. I have faith...
Tue Jun 2, 2015, 09:59 PM
Jun 2015

But in the end this is the best way to look at it. It's better to try for him rather than just vote for who you think will win.

Don't vote just to be on the winning team. Vote to be on the RIGHT team.

zentrum

(9,866 posts)
44. Except for Bernie
Tue Jun 2, 2015, 10:41 PM
Jun 2015

...and Warren and Feingold there is no right team any more.

I'll vote for the Dem in the end no matter who it is because the other "team" is practically sociopathic.

retrowire

(10,345 posts)
61. Definitely true
Wed Jun 3, 2015, 12:39 AM
Jun 2015

I'll fight for Bernie until his battle is over. If he isn't nominated, then it's back to choosing the lesser of two evils. sigh...

 

alcibiades_mystery

(36,437 posts)
50. Nope
Tue Jun 2, 2015, 11:31 PM
Jun 2015

He'll be out the day after Super Tuesday.

He won't win Iowa. He won't win Nevada, Colorado, or Minnesota caucuses.

So, no. No caucuses either.

 

Scootaloo

(25,699 posts)
32. Tell me, do you also believe that global warming is a hoax?
Tue Jun 2, 2015, 10:06 PM
Jun 2015

Was the moon landing fake?

Do you believe that Budweiser really is the "king of beers"?

 

alcibiades_mystery

(36,437 posts)
49. Global warming/climate change is quite real
Tue Jun 2, 2015, 11:27 PM
Jun 2015

The moon landing was a real event.

Budweiser is shit. I drink local crafts.

Bernie Sanders will not win a single primary.

kenfrequed

(7,865 posts)
63. Then why do you care?
Wed Jun 3, 2015, 07:49 AM
Jun 2015

Seriously, if I saw someone talking about something I consider improbable or unlikely I would have to have some serious emotional attachment to bother commenting on it at all.

kenfrequed

(7,865 posts)
68. Yes...
Wed Jun 3, 2015, 09:04 AM
Jun 2015

But I don't post on every single thread on said discussion board. If I post on one thread in twenty I feel like I have been hitting the internet too hard that day. I don't even add a 'like' to one thread in twenty and that takes very little time at all.

Also, since it is a legitimate question on a discussion board I don't consider asking said question "dumb" but thanks for evaluating the relative intelligence of my question.

treestar

(82,383 posts)
69. Serious emotional attachment
Wed Jun 3, 2015, 09:08 AM
Jun 2015

to bother to comment on a thread declaring an unlikely event?

Saying Bernie is going to win the WH is like saying Pigs are going to fly. So if I came in to a thread to say dude, pigs are not going to fly, that evidences serious emotional attachment to the idea pigs can't fly?

What serious emotional attachment? To what? The idea Bernie can't win? That's how you describe the assertion of Bernie is not likely to win? I wonder who has the serious emotional attachment here.

kenfrequed

(7,865 posts)
70. Never mind
Wed Jun 3, 2015, 09:14 AM
Jun 2015

I see your tactic. Answer all questions with questions while inserting negative assertions into the discussion. Never mind. You win a lifetime supply of cellular respiration.

Congrats and goodbye!

tiredtoo

(2,949 posts)
20. I'm in for the win!
Tue Jun 2, 2015, 09:40 PM
Jun 2015

But am looking forward to a no holds barred attack from the few and the mighty.
A David and Goliath battle for sure, enjoy the ride.

kacekwl

(7,028 posts)
22. When Bernie wins the nomination
Tue Jun 2, 2015, 09:45 PM
Jun 2015

he needs to have a running mate who has a sane foreign policy record. Then all bases are covered. WIN !

I hate liars

(165 posts)
25. I'm wondering what a sane foreign policy record might look like if not Bernie's own record...
Tue Jun 2, 2015, 09:52 PM
Jun 2015

Considering that he voted against the Iraq war.

My own bias is toward non-interventionist policy. Our history, especially in the Middle East, is one of creating problems to justify intervention. ISIS is a case in point.

jwirr

(39,215 posts)
30. The same person Hillary is supposed to have Castro - the one who is at HUD - not the one in Cuba.
Tue Jun 2, 2015, 10:00 PM
Jun 2015

Initech

(100,151 posts)
43. I seriously hope that happens. It's Congress I'm worried about.
Tue Jun 2, 2015, 10:38 PM
Jun 2015

What if Bernie gets in the White House? Will he actually have a compliant Congress to work with or will they give him the cold shoulder on day 1 like they did to Obama? That's what I am worried about.

 

HooptieWagon

(17,064 posts)
47. Of course the Rs will try to obstruct.
Tue Jun 2, 2015, 11:20 PM
Jun 2015

They will do so to any Democratic President....Hillary, whomever.
Where he will have better success than Hillary is that he's not as polarizing, and he had years in the House before his years in the Senate. He's no rookie (like Obama), of course he'll have a plan to deal with an obstructionist R Congress.

I hate liars

(165 posts)
56. Who is anyone who makes a reasoned argument? Does it matter?
Tue Jun 2, 2015, 11:52 PM
Jun 2015

There are very few people in this world whose word I would accept uncritically. What matters is the argument, not the person.

For the record, Zuesse is a frequent poster on Washington's Blog. He has written on a variety of topics, with many recent posts on the debacle in Ukraine. This is the first post of his that I can recall on the Presidential race.

I don't detect that Zuesse has any particular political axe to grind, but that's beside the point. If there's a flaw in his reasoning, call him out for that. Otherwise, it matters not who he is.

napi21

(45,806 posts)
48. I doubt it.
Tue Jun 2, 2015, 11:23 PM
Jun 2015

I agree with almost all of his ideas, however, his instance that he's a Democratic Socialist and so many Americans don't understand what that means (they think socialist means Hitler) and all the rumblings about his age, AND there aren't enough American people who can contribute enough $$ to enable him to fight off his opponents, I think those things will prevent hi from winning.

 

immoderate

(20,885 posts)
57. It's a reasonable scenario. At least right now.
Wed Jun 3, 2015, 12:03 AM
Jun 2015

Elections as we know, are often not predictable. They are subject to, what is called in chaos theory 'strange attractors.' The big unknown in all these cases is voter turnout. The money, the electoral college, etc., all add uncertainties to the system, which has the potential to introduce tipping points.

In short, anything can happen.

--imm

tularetom

(23,664 posts)
58. Hillary Clinton has one big advantage - bazillions of dollars
Wed Jun 3, 2015, 12:19 AM
Jun 2015

But she has an even bigger disadvantage - she's Hillary Clinton. Completely charisma challenged, ill at ease at the podium, uncomfortable with real people, a dead giveaway when lying, she doesn't wear well.

Bernie Sanders has the strength of his beliefs and it shows. Clinton basically has no core beliefs and that shows as well.

Bill Clinton could pull this off on the basis of his good ol boy charm. Obama could do it with his unflappable Mr Cool persona. Hillary - nah, she got nothin.

I like Sen Sanders chances for the nomination over the long haul. Can't say for sure he'll win the general but I believe he has a better shot at it than Clinton.

 

peecoolyour

(336 posts)
59. Anyone who is offended by Bernie's presence in this race.
Wed Jun 3, 2015, 12:22 AM
Jun 2015

And gleeful about the possibility of him losing...

Tells me everything I need to know about their character and positions.

 

stevenleser

(32,886 posts)
62. Only if you paint a regar house white and give it away to him
Wed Jun 3, 2015, 01:45 AM
Jun 2015

He's not getting near the one at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave in DC unless Onama or Hillary invite him.

Orsino

(37,428 posts)
66. A lot of strange and/or terrible things would have to happen, I think.
Wed Jun 3, 2015, 08:57 AM
Jun 2015

But I believe he would be the best choice, for a nation that matures enough to make that choice.

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