General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsDailyKos straw poll: Bernie 63%, Hillary 29%!
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2015/06/09/1391630/-First-Daily-Kos-Democratic-Primary-Straw-Poll?detail=hideChairmanAgnostic
(28,017 posts)So much for someone's inevitability, a poise taken some years back (which failed miserably then, and will fail again this time around).
yeoman6987
(14,449 posts)A glitch happened according to the comments under the poll. I didn't vote so who knows. November 2016 can't come soon enough.
ChairmanAgnostic
(28,017 posts)Enthusiast
(50,983 posts)rhett o rick
(55,981 posts)MrScorpio
(73,631 posts)Cal33
(7,018 posts)that there are far more Progressives here at DU than Third-Way Dems. I just wonder
what the ratio of those for Sanders and those for Clinton are out there in the general
public is like.
At the rate Sanders is making gains, I wouldn't be surprised if he should be way
ahead of Clinton in a few months.
stevenleser
(32,886 posts)bobthedrummer
(26,083 posts)Bernie in 2016!
K&R
Dawgs
(14,755 posts)Just ask him.
Enthusiast
(50,983 posts)morningfog
(18,115 posts)LOLOLOLOL.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,719 posts)I started many of those-Dennis never won one here stevenleser, Wes Clark and Howard Dean often did
The former won one primary and the latter didn't win any.
It's a shame because Wes would have been a good general election candidate.
JDPriestly
(57,936 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,719 posts)His credibility was largely a function of his being an anti-war general but not just any anti-war general. He was the Supreme Allied Commander, the same position Dwight Eisenhower held.
In the debates John Kerry and Howard Dean went after him hard...If he was a career politician he would have fared better against the attacks.
I forgot which state he won; it was either a border or southern state.
JDPriestly
(57,936 posts)job training for young Americans. I thought it was a great idea. My father did something similar in the FDR era. The kids got paid and their money went home in some cases to help their parents. They did public works projects. It wasn't instead of college. It was in addition to school.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,719 posts)Back then it seemed Democrats had a much less strict litmus test. The candidate only needed to be pro choice, pro affirmative action, and pro glbtq rights.
Again, I liked Wes Clark a lot.
kenfrequed
(7,865 posts)For a lot of Democrats economics always have mattered. Those three aspects were the absolute bare minimum most democrats required (though obviously the blue dogs in the south didn't even require that.)
We have been living with tax cuts ubber alles for three decades now with only slight corrections under Obama and Clinton.
We actually need more significant reforms and we really should have fixed the banker problem back during the bailout, honestly that was our best opportunity to create significant and lasting reform
Jumpin Jack Flash
(242 posts)Recursion
(56,582 posts)MADem
(135,425 posts)He couldn't get elected dog catcher nowadays. His personal life is--to put it kindly-- a hot mess.
KamaAina
(78,249 posts)I imagine we would get similar results here.
Ed Suspicious
(8,879 posts)brooklynite
(95,070 posts)Now I suppose we could all agree that self-selecting internet polls are meaningless. All of them.
truedelphi
(32,324 posts)MADem
(135,425 posts)I wouldn't look to a seeded straw poll on the internet for anything but laughs. Most voters are light users of the net, if at all.
cali
(114,904 posts)Cleita
(75,480 posts)a certain demographic, mostly left wing internet denizens.
JDPriestly
(57,936 posts)We are the activists who make the phone calls and spread the news to our families and friends. So it is a certain demographic all right, a very influential one.
obnoxiousdrunk
(2,911 posts)Tarheel_Dem
(31,258 posts)obnoxiousdrunk
(2,911 posts)In 2008 Dennis Kuchinich won the straw poll on DU.
Tarheel_Dem
(31,258 posts)whatthehey
(3,660 posts)Don't they realize REAL internet Democrats need a 60%+ spread between the two!
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10026768262
Now look at any real world poll and tell me that DU is a Centrist Bernie-hating HRC cess pit of Republicans and DLC shills. Honestly the denial about what DU represents (a partisan echo-chamber group far far to the left of the Dem party norm let alone the US as a whole) is one of its most frustrating features.
Cheese Sandwich
(9,086 posts)It's more because people on the forum pay a lot of attention to politics
DU picks better candidates because the members are more politically savvy than the general public. Not surprising since it is a forum about politics.
The forum is not "far far to the left". Bernie Sanders' policies are supported by the majority of America. But people who follow politics closely are better at picking which candidates might actually fight for those policies.
red dog 1
(27,942 posts)Well stated!
whatthehey
(3,660 posts)A vanishingly small percentage of the US population, and only 10% of Democrats polled think Obama is "not liberal enough" for example.
Essentially all criticism of Obama here is for not being liberal enough (including in some cases where I agree FWIW), meaning that the population is heavily skewed to the most left 10% of Democrats at the rightward limit of DU belief.
When approximately 40% of people surveyed believe Obama is in about the right place, and 40% believe he is too liberal, and 10% or so disapprove for unstated reasons or aren't sure, and some refuse, what else can a group dominated by those who believe he is not liberal enough BE but in the leftmost 10% of the population, and what should that be defined as except the far left? If 90% of the populace is to our right, where else are we?
The trouble with issue polling is it's done in a vacuum with no dertails or counterarguments and elections work holistically in the real world.
Should the rich be taxed more? Hell yes! OK let's raise taxes on anyone making 100k or with a net worth of a million! Oh wait a minute that's my Aunt Gladys no we can't do that.
Should we avoid sending US troops to be the world's police? Hell Yes! OK that means we pull out of meddling in the ME and let Islamist groups take over and destroy priceless history. Hel no we need to stop that!
And the "we're better informed" schtick, even if you ignore elitist hubris, doesn't change where DU falls on the spectrum of public opinion. It may at self-serving best explain why being far-left is a warranted position, but doesn't mean it's the norm, As it in fact states internally.
PowerToThePeople
(9,610 posts)Look who just outed themself. Enjoy your stay.
stillwaiting
(3,795 posts)Of course, some of those that think this way seem to constantly get put on time out around here, but they don't seem to get banned for stating this. They just can't stop attacking, ridiculing, and condescending to the majority of us around here. But, they don't get banned.
PowerToThePeople
(9,610 posts)The pizza delivery truck has not been working well for some time.
whatthehey
(3,660 posts)Somebody who knows an echo chamber when they are in one? Guilty as charged.
Somebody who is honest about a political forum for partisans being...well.. partisan? Guilty again.
I AM partisan. I admit it. I'm also sane enough to look at a society that elects huge majorities of Republicans, dominated by loons who deny science, seek theocracy and despise anyone not white male and evangelical, legislating their pain and disenfranchisement with glee, and not lie to myself that my opinions are the middle of the road norm.
Even in the Dem party, the norm is far to the right of DU. The platform itself supports, in writing for god's sake, the right to own guns for self-defense, fair use of the death penalty, and military intervention when we are not under threat. All opinions which are deemed outrageously RW here
I don't get frustrated that DU IS partisan and far left, I get frustrated that it pretends to be the normal base of a party which in poll after poll, election after election, platform after platform, takes a stance that is at the rightward fringe of where DU is, and often even that it speaks for the majority of the nation when it is solidly in the leftmost decile by any metric of public opinion.
Finally, you can do fuck all about my stay so keeping the impotent passive-aggressive threats to yourself would avoid embarrassment.
lonestarnot
(77,097 posts)Tarheel_Dem
(31,258 posts)Yeah, I'm gonna go ahead and apply this logic to all straw polls. Internet polls are especially unreliable as they are not "random" in the least.
Avalux
(35,015 posts)Bernie has it.
Tarheel_Dem
(31,258 posts)jeff47
(26,549 posts)brooklynite
(95,070 posts)Godhumor
(6,437 posts)I math well.
zeemike
(18,998 posts)And the 90% one 1000.
The larger the sample the better the results.
Rex
(65,616 posts)The only polls that mean anything are exit polls and by then it is too late.
Ed Suspicious
(8,879 posts)Rex
(65,616 posts)SMH.
Nye Bevan
(25,406 posts)There wil be some grim faces today at HRC HQ in the wake of this poll. I just hope she doesn't get desperate and criticize his hair or something.
Just remember though, Sanders fans: it's looking good for you but s healthy primary battle is surely better than a "coronation".
msongs
(67,509 posts)daredtowork
(3,732 posts)Kos himself would be pro-Hillary, just as he is a "Third Way" anti-left Democrat in his local politics.
Much like Skinner is personally pro-Hillary, whatever the majority on DU turns out to be.
Interesting theme there: the owners/hosts of the technology are the Establishment Democrats...the crowd-sourced users are the Bernie socialists?
brooklynite
(95,070 posts)daredtowork
(3,732 posts)brooklynite
(95,070 posts)and I'm not clear why you need "connections".
daredtowork
(3,732 posts)But perhaps you need to live near the Silicon Valley area to understand that.
Also you have to have a stealth plan to make money (with Kos, for example, it was the ads and getting traction for other ventures like SportsBlogs and Vox) - which is a bit harder to do when you are coming at it from a purely "give the people a voice" perspective.
I actually have a couple ideas (not blogging) which I'd love to develop, and I know I'm in the greatest spot in the world to do it - but I'm not in the social position to make those contacts. At the level I'm at, ideas would just be stolen from me by middlemen rather than giving "unqualified" me the opportunity.
Gamecock Lefty
(701 posts)With BS being the most perfect candidate ever, with his latest surge in the DK poll, how can I ever vote for Hillary now? I mean, shes toast, right? Isnt she being funded by an arm of the DNC, isnt she part of Third Way (whatever the hell that is), and Wall Street, oh my gosh lets go get Wall Street all of it! Isnt Bens and Jerrys part of Wall Street? Never mind.
Hillary is too conservative, shes too rich to understand us, her husband sold us out. Shes not a true liberal. How dare her to be anti-choice. How dare her to support rolling back voting rights! How double-dare her to be against marriage equality! How dare her for - well, for everything.
Note to Hillary: Offer free overpriced ice cream at your rallies and you can buy my vote again!
DrBulldog
(841 posts). . . of the $1.6 million she got paid last year for her speaking tour in Canada last year, much of which was paid by Canadian oil and pharma. Bernie is miles ahead of her in brains and integrity and voting record.
Sheepshank
(12,504 posts)Taking it from oil even worse.
leftofcool
(19,460 posts)Tarheel_Dem
(31,258 posts)Quackers
(2,256 posts)Right into the ballot box! I hope she doesn't win the primary, but for people to say she doesn't have a chance at winning is disingenuous. I hope Bernie wins but he has work to do to make that a reality.
Gman
(24,780 posts)It's just a straw poll of people inclined to support Sanders anyway.
Gamecock Lefty
(701 posts)By the way, latest Public Policy Polling in swing state of NC (as of June 5), that horrible not one of us Hillary Rodham Clinton is tied or leads ALL Republican candidates. The best candidate ever, Bernie Im the male version of Liz Warren Sanders leads none.
Head to head: Horrible Hillary 62%, BS 14%.
Did I mention the swing state of NC, not a Daily Kos poll or one from the overpriced ice cream staff?
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/06/bush-leads-gop-field-in-nc-clinton-up-on-most-republicans.html
ananda
(28,925 posts)Hurray!
d_legendary1
(2,586 posts)I have to also say that the people who voted "No Freaking Clue" and "other" are troll votes.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,719 posts)It would be like John Ellis Bush or Marco Rubio receiving 29% of the vote in a Free Republic poll.
DrBulldog
(841 posts)DrBulldog
(841 posts)People are missing the point. Take that public straw poll and multiply it by hundreds across the country in all regions. If these informal polls keep getting publicized in the press and Internet and Bernie keeps shredding Hillary, this will start the Democratic wildfire this country badly needs. The straw polls are where the grass roots begins its fight. Hillary may be a "Democrat" and a "woman" but she has voted wrongly many times, hems-and-haws on issues, and is really already bought and paid for by corporations - even her son-in-law is a Wall Street hedge fund manager and her husband still speaks for money . . .
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,719 posts)mythology
(9,527 posts)A self-selected poll that doesn't correct for the known universe of probable voters says nothing useful. Look at what a poor understanding of statistical polling did for Romney.
JI7
(89,290 posts)when his plane landed in the state .
Tierra_y_Libertad
(50,414 posts)Not to mention, non-pragmatic, idealistic, unrealistic, non-conformists who don't subscribe to the Not as Bad theory politics and governance.
Tsk. Tsk.
truedelphi
(32,324 posts)That the Ukraine Commie front is sending us each week!
Tierra_y_Libertad
(50,414 posts)Art_from_Ark
(27,247 posts)because the ruble is in the crapper
red dog 1
(27,942 posts)Octafish
(55,745 posts)It's a good start.
captainarizona
(363 posts)Bernie Sanders does very well with white liberal activists, especially anti-war activists. But half the democratic party is minorities. How many black and brown people do you see at his rallies? Iowa and New Hampshire are not the same make up as the rest of the country. Lets see how well he does in South Carolina primary. Mrs. Clinton is running on citizenship,voter suppression women's rights issues and other minority issues. President Obama only passed Hillary when black community joined white anti-war activists.
zeemike
(18,998 posts)The issues Bernie talks about...they are all rich enough not to care.
moondust
(20,030 posts)Granted it's just one TV studio audience, but since Wilmore has a lot of minority and women guests it might follow that his studio audience is diverse as well.
Tarheel_Dem
(31,258 posts)When Bernie Sanders first jumped into the presidential race, I wrote that he would need to do well with minority voters to stand a chance of toppling Hillary Clinton.
Attracting diverse support, as opposed to just educated upscale liberal whites, is the difference between successful progressive Democratic campaigns, like Barack Obama's, and failed ones like Sanders' fellow Vermonter Howard Dean's.
The early results don't look good for Sanders. According to a recent Washington Post/ABC News poll, Clinton is leading among white Democrats with 56 percent of the vote to Sanders' 14 percent. Among self-described liberals, Sanders does a little better (17 percent), but so does Clinton (63 percent).
Yet Clinton is trouncing Sanders among non-white Democrats, winning 72 percent to just 5 percent for the Vermont democratic socialist. (The poll doesn't break the non-white Democrats down into categories like black, Latino or Asian.)
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/hillarys-strong-minority-support-complicates-progressive-primary-challenge/article/2565814
Now you'll probably be labeled a "race baiter" for merely asking the question, but I hope this analysis helps. If Bernie breaks 10% minority support, I'll be surprised, but that support will come mainly from black & hispanic union households.
Great question, by the way.
red dog 1
(27,942 posts)Bernie is now leading Hillary 64% to 28%.
Go Bernie!
quickesst
(6,285 posts)...I remember a time when polls didn't mean anything. When was that? Oh yeah, it was last time a poll was posted where Hillary was ahead. Yep, that was a long long time ago.
randys1
(16,286 posts)doing the two step that the Democratic Party seems to want them to do, understandably.
Step one: Applaud Bernie endlessly, then add "but at the end of the day, he wont win"
Step two: Reaffirm Hillary's credentials, level of support, financial support, etc.
I will be happy as long as a criminal fuck rightwing racist bigot Woman hating Black hating environment hating asshole republican teapartier isnt elected, but I am sensing a VERY serious race between Hillary and Bernie.
BEWARE of one thing, the MSM would LOVE to see a horse race between Hillary and anybody, so dont always assume that the coverage is what it is.
Warpy
(111,480 posts)If they polled people on the floor of the NYSE, they'd find the opposite.
Babel_17
(5,400 posts)What can't get emphasized enough, imo, is how the enthusiasm we see on the internet for Sanders will likely be reflected in the turnout for Sanders in the primaries. I think this turnout will be disproportionately large, relative to what polling will indicate.
Sanders supporters are beyond eager to vote for him and they will be talking him up. These town hall meetings and caucuses could be a real wake up call to the general public. The MSM won't have to look deep in order to see a major story.
alcibiades_mystery
(36,437 posts)madfloridian
(88,117 posts)tritsofme
(17,449 posts)Response to peacebird (Original post)
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