General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsAre we facing the end of history? Or even human extinction?
Do you believe climate change is a threat sufficient to cause the end of history? To cause the extinction of homo sapiens? How much do you feel that you know about climate change?
I dont want to claim that we cant survive the loss of many, many species. Weve already proved that we actually can. Were very adaptable. But I think the bottom line is, you wouldnt want to find out.
There are two questions that arise: One is, OK, just because weve survived the loss of X number of species, can we keep going down the same trajectory, or do we eventually imperil the systems that keep people alive? Thats a very big and incredibly serious question.
And then theres another question. Even if we can survive, is that the world you want to live in? Is that the world you want all future generations of humans to live in? Thats a different question. But theyre both extremely serious. I would say they really couldnt be more serious.
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/2015/06/150623-sixth-extinction-kolbert-animals-conservation-science-world/
http://inthesetimes.com/article/17137/the_end_of_history
http://www.savingadvice.com/articles/2015/06/21/1034832_new-period-of-animal-extinction.html
hifiguy
(33,688 posts)a large and significant die-off, human and otherwise, is virtually guaranteed unless we start doing something meaningful about climate change NOW.
CrispyQ
(36,586 posts)There doesn't seem to be any political will, at a global level, to address climate change. I'm not convinced we won't go the way of the dinos.
Coventina
(27,231 posts)Too bad we'd bring so many other species into oblivion with us though.......
Arugula Latte
(50,566 posts)I sometimes think we as a species don't deserve to continue after what we've done to the planet. I just wish we hadn't caused so much misery for other species.
ruffburr
(1,190 posts)Sucking the life blood of mother earth and she's not gonna take it anymore!!!!!! I truly believe we ain't seen nothing yet! Yellow Stone or any one of a dozen super volcanoes, mega droughts, viral contaminations,poisoned ground water, mega quakes east and west coasts, Last but not least, asteroids. Take your pick cause at least one or two of these things are coming soon.
former9thward
(32,185 posts)Since Humans have been around the climate has constantly changed. And has changed in far more massive ways then any of the current climate change models suggest. Humans got though all that and have grown vastly in number despite it all. Humans will survive and grow as they have always done.
Admiral Loinpresser
(3,859 posts)for your assertions? Also, is your answer of "no" given in spite of my links or did you ignore them?
former9thward
(32,185 posts)Are you really suggesting that there has not been climate change through out all of human history? If you are, no amount of links or science will help you.
nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)and that the anthropocene is not a real thing, or for that matter, the sixth mass extinction?
You are correct, all links to scientific lit will not help. for that matter links to the IPPC.
former9thward
(32,185 posts)That is not true and no model suggests it.
nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)They are no longer the outliers they once were either. Though they are far from consensus YET.
The problem is that consensus will likely start to happen when it is far too late to do anything about it. Humans are just great at hiding their collective heads in the sand.
Here you go, just from this week.
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/2015/06/150623-sixth-extinction-kolbert-animals-conservation-science-world/
http://takingnote.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/06/23/skyrocketing-extinctions-put-humans-at-risk/
http://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2012/03/were-underestimating-the-risk-of-human-extinction/253821/
former9thward
(32,185 posts)The first is by a writer trying for sensational speculation. The second is by a writer who references an obscure scientist in Mexico and the third is a writer talking about a philosopher not a scientist.
For all of human recorded history there have been gloom and doom prophets predicting the end of times. They have all been wrong. There is something in the human mind which craves this type of speculation. That is what should be studied.
nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)Again, not that the horse's mouth will do any difference.
nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)is one of the top researchers at one of the top research universities in Mexico.
That slip is indeed showing.
snooper2
(30,151 posts)nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)and does not have a camera on it.
What an odd question.... though if you are that paranoid, realize hackers or the government can use your computer (or telephone for that matter) camera.
http://techcrunch.com/2013/06/13/smile-hackers-can-silently-access-your-webcam-right-through-the-browser-again/
Admiral Loinpresser
(3,859 posts)we are in a geologically rare and extreme era of climate change due to the Industrial Revolution. Do you disagree?
former9thward
(32,185 posts)No climate change model suggests anything like that. So yes, I disagree as well as climate change scientists.
Admiral Loinpresser
(3,859 posts)The glaciation cycles of the current ice age are believed to have had only a very mild impact on biodiversity, so the mere existence of a significant cooling is not sufficient on its own to explain a mass extinction.
We are entering a sixth mass extinction event. The last one occurred about 65 million years ago Also this so called "anthropocene" geologic age we are entering is characterized by very extreme CO2 levels. We are currently at 400 PPM, which is greater than for at least the last 400,000 years. Based on what scientists are telling us we are ina very extreme age, not seen for tens of millions of years. We have just entered it, so the effects are highly likely to get much, much worse. Many climatologists such as James Hansen are saying there is little time left for civilization to change. I suggest reading This Changes Everything, by Naomi Klein.
https://en.wikipedia.org/?title=Extinction_event
aint_no_life_nowhere
(21,925 posts)which occurred about 15,000 years ago and lasted over 1,000 years. That ultra cooling and drought was supposedly one of the causes of the extinction of mammoths and camels in North America and had a significant impact throughout the world. Human population throughout the world was severely impacted. There is no guarantee that humanity is safe from extinction. Humans actually became nearly extinct about 70,000 years ago after the eruption of the Toba supervolcano which threw enough ash and dust into the air that it caused a 7 year long volcanic winter. It was supposedly the largest volcanic eruption of the entire Quarternary period. Scientists estimate that the human population fell below two thousand people. Some scientists believe the population might have declined to as few as 40.
Admiral Loinpresser
(3,859 posts)Actually referring to sixth extinction period, among other phemonena. Even more geologically extreme than your reference:
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/2015/06/150623-sixth-extinction-kolbert-animals-conservation-science-world/
aint_no_life_nowhere
(21,925 posts)climate change being a triggering cause. Scarcer water and fertile land coupled with overpopulation could cause a worldwide disintegration in the agriculture and transportation infrastructure which in turn might force millions of people out of work. That in turn could lead to world wide war to control the remaining resources. Add the release of super bugs from research laboratories that have no cure and I hate to think of the consequences.
B Calm
(28,762 posts)mmonk
(52,589 posts)KamaAina
(78,249 posts)Admiral Loinpresser
(3,859 posts)n/t
nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)with it.
As is 99 percent of life on earth has gone extinct. The science is increasingly clear. Why OFF WORLD settlement is actually quite a bit of a priority, as well as tech to reverse the damage, if we are to avoid extinction.
Yes, that be terrraforming.
On the bright side. I should not be alive for the worst of it.
hobbit709
(41,694 posts)G_j
(40,372 posts)Its frightening but true: Our planet is now in the midst of its sixth mass extinction of plants and animals the sixth wave of extinctions in the past half-billion years. Were currently experiencing the worst spate of species die-offs since the loss of the dinosaurs 65 million years ago. Although extinction is a natural phenomenon, it occurs at a natural background rate of about one to five species per year. Scientists estimate were now losing species at 1,000 to 10,000 times the background rate, with literally dozens going extinct every day [1]. It could be a scary future indeed, with as many as 30 to 50 percent of all species possibly heading toward extinction by mid-century [2].
Unlike past mass extinctions, caused by events like asteroid strikes, volcanic eruptions, and natural climate shifts, the current crisis is almost entirely caused by us humans. In fact, 99 percent of currently threatened species are at risk from human activities, primarily those driving habitat loss, introduction of exotic species, and global warming [3]. Because the rate of change in our biosphere is increasing, and because every species extinction potentially leads to the extinction of others bound to that species in a complex ecological web, numbers of extinctions are likely to snowball in the coming decades as ecosystems unravel.
Species diversity ensures ecosystem resilience, giving ecological communities the scope they need to withstand stress. Thus while conservationists often justifiably focus their efforts on species-rich ecosystems like rainforests and coral reefs which have a lot to lose a comprehensive strategy for saving biodiversity must also include habitat types with fewer species, like grasslands, tundra, and polar seas for which any loss could be irreversibly devastating. And while much concern over extinction focuses on globally lost species, most of biodiversitys benefits take place at a local level, and conserving local populations is the only way to ensure genetic diversity critical for a species long-term survival.
In the past 500 years, we know of approximately 1,000 species that have gone extinct, from the woodland bison of West Virginia and Arizonas Merriams elk to the Rocky Mountain grasshopper, passenger pigeon and Puerto Ricos Culebra parrot but this doesnt account for thousands of species that disappeared before scientists had a chance to describe them [4]. Nobody really knows how many species are in danger of becoming extinct. Noted conservation scientist David Wilcove estimates that there are 14,000 to 35,000 endangered species in the United States, which is 7 to 18 percent of U.S. flora and fauna. The IUCN has assessed roughly 3 percent of described species and identified 16,928 species worldwide as being threatened with extinction, or roughly 38 percent of those assessed. In its latest four-year endangered species assessment, the IUCN reports that the world wont meet a goal of reversing the extinction trend toward species depletion by 2010 [5].
Whats clear is that many thousands of species are at risk of disappearing forever in the coming decades.
<snip>
By AL GORE FEB. 10, 2014
Over the past decade, Elizabeth Kolbert has established herself as one of our very best science writers. She has developed a distinctive and eloquent voice of conscience on issues arising from the extraordinary assault on the ecosphere, and those who have enjoyed her previous works like Field Notes From a Catastrophe will not be disappointed by her powerful new book, The Sixth Extinction: An Unnatural History.
Kolbert, a staff writer at The New Yorker, reports from the front lines of the violent collision between civilization and our planets
ecosystem: the Andes, the Amazon rain forest, the Great Barrier Reef and her backyard. In lucid prose, she examines the role of
man-made climate change in causing what biologists call the sixth mass extinction the current spasm of plant and animal loss that threatens to eliminate 20 to 50 percent of all living species on earth within this century.
Extinction is a relatively new idea in the scientific community. Well into the 18th century, people found it impossible to accept the idea that species had once lived on earth but had been subsequently lost. Scientists simply could not envision a planetary force powerful enough to wipe out forms of life that were common in prior ages.
In the same way, and for many of the same reasons, many today find it inconceivable that we could possibly be responsible for destroying the integrity of our planets ecology. There are psychological barriers to even imagining that what we love so much could be lost could be destroyed forever. As a result, many of us refuse to contemplate it. Like an audience entertained by a magician, we allow ourselves to be deceived by those with a stake in persuading us to ignore reality.
For example, we continue to use the worlds atmosphere as an open sewer for the daily dumping of more than 90 million tons of gaseous waste. If trends continue, the global temperature will keep rising, triggering world-altering events, Kolbert writes. According to a conservative and unchallenged calculation by the climatologist James Hansen, the man-made pollution already in the atmosphere traps as much extra heat energy every 24 hours as would be released by the explosion of 400,000 Hiroshima-class nuclear bombs. The resulting rapid warming of both the atmosphere and the ocean, which Kolbert notes has absorbed about one-third of the carbon dioxide we have produced, is wreaking havoc on earths delicately balanced ecosystems. It threatens both the web of living species with which we share the planet and the future viability of civilization. By disrupting these systems, Kolbert writes, were putting our own survival in danger.
..more..[/div
cbdo2007
(9,213 posts)but yes, it will happen eventually. It is inevitable.
Rex
(65,616 posts)Knowing human nature like I do; we will deal with the problem as soon as it is of dire concern and not a nanosecond beforehand.
Spitzbub
(14 posts)Churchill
Rex
(65,616 posts)Some things you can wait out...not this.
truebrit71
(20,805 posts)in fact in earth-history time it is right around the corner...
aint_no_life_nowhere
(21,925 posts)I've lived here for 46 years. I remember how it was in 1970. Now there's such a glut of humanity everywhere it just continues to blow my mind. Freeways are a lost cause if you want to get somewhere. Even on surface streets the traffic is incredible. If you're on a surface street with two lanes in each direction, you often can't change lanes for quite a distance because there's an unbroken wall of cars next to you. I go outdoors every day to pour two gallons of water on a little tree I want to keep from dying (I no longer water my lawn in general and have let it die because of the tight water restrictions imposed by my city and county). I live in a little housing tract with about 40 homes and only two ways out. Yet every single time I go out to water my tree, a car passes by. There are probably no more than 200 people living in this tract and yet they are manically getting in their cars and driving somewhere and coming back all day long. To me this is already unlivable and I am desperate to get away to some empty place like the middle of the Mojave desert. I can't even imagine what it will be like in 100 to 200 years when everything has been paved over and developed in every livable corner of the Earth. Fortunately for me, I won't live long enough to see the horrors that scientists are predicting and that the stupid uncaring human race is ignoring.
mnhtnbb
(31,428 posts)and my husband and I left--with our 2 year old son--in 1988 because we weren't going
to raise children in Los Angeles.
Since then we've lived in Missouri (1988-94), Nebraska (1994-2000), and North Carolina.
On the 4th of July we're flying to Bonaire--off the coast of Venezuela--to investigate
living out our lives there. We originally took a look at Bonaire in 2007 when we were considering an 'escape' from the Bushies to Panama. Then later that year a fire destroyed our house here and all our attention was on figuring out how
to live here, plus Obama was elected and we felt like maybe the pressure to get out before the Republicans destroyed
everything was off. My husband is 72 and I'm 64. Until 2012 I LOVED Chapel Hill,
but now the State of NC has been taken over by Republicans determined to destroy education,
health care, the environment, voting rights, women's rights...you name it. It's an open
carry state and we saw three beautiful, smart, compassionate young Muslims gunned
down in cold blood in Chapel Hill last winter over what? Supposedly a parking spot.
But the point is any a$$hole with a grudge can carry a gun and destroy a life.
They want to frack in the neighboring county. They want to drill for oil offshore,
instead of developing solar and wind power. They've chased public school teachers
out of the state by the thousands. It goes on and on. I'm to the point where I just
want to live out my life in a pretty spot.
I hear you!
raouldukelives
(5,178 posts)Most likely the children of the ones who did the most damage to the planet today ensuring the wealth to insulate themselves from the effects of their life's work.
As for the rest of humanity and for the natural world. Slow, horrible, miserable death. Starvation, disease, dehydration. An oven on a scale that would have made Adolf blush. All brought to you by Wall St lackeys who never met an ass too nasty not to lick or a tragedy to horrible to consider not profiting from.
GliderGuider
(21,088 posts)There are a myriad of interlocked ecological and social factors that are ganging up on this version of global civilization right now. All of them are getting worse, and fast. The signs of breakdown are all around for those who wish to look for them.
So, yes to the sudden decline of industrial civilization, probably triggered by fianancial collapse and social unrest. The probability of a dieoff as the world's medical, financial and agricultural infrastructures collapse is fairly high. Climate change will make those problems worse, and could keep us from recovering from them - "A catastrophe a day keeps recovery at bay..."
However, we survived the Toba catastrophe - apparently with fewer than 10,000 breeding pairs of humans - so I don't expect we'll go extinct.
My web site is devoted to my decade-long assessment of the situation: http://paulchefurka.ca/
Throd
(7,208 posts)Admiral Loinpresser
(3,859 posts)Civilization is around 10,000 years but only in the last 200 years have we actually started polluting the atmosphere at an unsustainable rate. It is now scientists, not clerics, who are telling us the end is near.
moondust
(20,033 posts)it could take a long time and involve a lot of horrors along the way as more people become waterless, foodless, homeless, penniless, etc. Globally there are already around 60 million refugees from wars and such.
Ever see the post-apocalyptic wasteland in Road Warrior?
mackdaddy
(1,533 posts)We are already in big trouble with less than 1C increase. The Polar Ice both on and off land is melting, There are massive changes in the Arctic temperatures in general, and Massive heat "blobs" in the Pacific. We are still adding record amounts of man made greenhouse gasses every year, and the ones already in the atmosphere will be there for hundreds of years.
Today, we are seeing just the beginning of what this has wreaked. Massive red tide type microbe blooms and lower oxygen levels in the warm ocean waters, killing everything in its way, whales, fish, invertebrates. Massive storms in the Pacific, and alternating droughts and record rain and flooding when it does come. Warmer and less Arctic ice changing the jet streams into a warped snaking kinked thing responsible for the hot dry weather in the west of the Rockies, and strong winters in the east at the same time. Entire forest areas are dying and wide spread fires all over the earth. Alaska to Siberia seem to be on fire.
In addition to the west coast running out of water, reservoirs are dry and cities are or nearly out of water in South America, Australia, and North Africa. Heat waves have killed thousands in India and Pakistan in the last weeks. Las Vegas to San Diego are running temperatures 20f above normal.
The land locked ice on the Antarctic continent and Greenland is melting and falling into the ocean. And the rate of melting has accelerated by 10 fold in just the last ten years MEASURED, and is still increasing. Sea level rise has already caused many problems especially on the east coast of the US. Regular "King" tides are flooding streets in Miami and Virginal Beach now, and contributed to the flooding of NYC during hurricane Sandy.
I have found that every time there is a regional conflict and refugees or migrants, that there was crop failure and food shortages in the area. Ukraine, North Africa, central America, the Arab spring, and Syria all grew out of crop and food problems. Just try goggling the area of strife and crop failure yourself for any of these.
Near Future:
My conjecture is that it will take over a century for the polar ice to melt completely, which will cause 230 feet of sea level rise and take out all major cities on earth, but that is for future generations. But with less that 2% of this land based ice melting into the sea, we could get enough sea level rise of just a few feet in as short as 20 years to do trillions in damage to seaports and low lying city areas. This could lead to pretty much total economic collapse.
In addition the storm & drought cycle could get even more extreme, causing a modern dust bowl over many grain growing areas in the US Midwest, and Russia resulting in massive food shortages. Lots of wars, refugees, disease and death.
When people stop getting paid, they stop working. This might be a little troubling for the 440 or so nuclear power plants which take constant tending for decades to shut down. Not sure how many new Fukushima/Chernobyl events we will get out of this, but this could cause actual human extinction by itself.
This is all with just the current CO2 load, which we will be adding to until the collapse. Even if these levels stopped going up all these things are pretty much guaranteed, just the time line will be longer. BUT, if the methane hydrate ice in the arctic starts letting go, we could see drastic changes in less than 5 years, and it will be out of our control totally. Maybe global temperature increases 5 times what we are currently experiencing. I can't imagine how bad that would be. But we are locked in for double the increase anyhow.
Pretty much we are in general toast. Burnt to a carbon char toast at that. We might be able to survive as a species in a few domed cities a few thousand of us might last the several hundred years it will take for the earth to recover. But then maybe not.
I find it interesting that when I discuss climate change and what is coming, I often get, "Oh I don't Believe that." Kind of like saying I have never seen an F5 tornado so I don't believe in them. It does not really matter in the end what we believe. We have either set in motion events that will kill humanity or we have not. But I think now would be a really good time to sell you beach front property.
G_j
(40,372 posts)Thanks for taking the time to share that. Human tendency to see the world through rose colored glasses, is not helpful in this matter.