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WI_DEM

(33,497 posts)
Thu Jun 25, 2015, 11:46 AM Jun 2015

Iowa: Hillary: 50% Bernie: 24% O'Malley: 2% in new poll

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2015-06-25/bernie-sanders-gains-on-hillary-clinton-in-bloomberg-early-state-polling

The polls suggest substantive and symbolic support for the socialist, as well as a craving among some Democrats for a Clinton rival to rise.

“I want to try to get him along as far as I can,” said Democratic poll participant John Murphy, 74, a retired railroad worker in West Des Moines, Iowa. “He’s going to bring up some issues that she may not want to talk about.”

Along the campaign trail, Sanders appears to be changing some minds: His unfavorable rating in Iowa is just 4 percent, down 8 percentage points since May. At the same time, 57 percent now view him positively, up 10 points from the last poll.
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Iowa: Hillary: 50% Bernie: 24% O'Malley: 2% in new poll (Original Post) WI_DEM Jun 2015 OP
I expect to see O'Malley go way up in the polls soon. leftofcool Jun 2015 #1
Don't know, but there is still plenty of time to make himself known before August still_one Jun 2015 #4
What happens in August? BlueCheese Jun 2015 #8
Debate? Agschmid Jun 2015 #10
I gotta move to one of these states. BlueCheese Jun 2015 #12
I live in Mass, but if I wanted to get involved with any candidate... Agschmid Jun 2015 #13
It may be in the fall, so I may not have been accurate, but yes, that is what my point was still_one Jun 2015 #17
God, I hope so DavidDvorkin Jun 2015 #35
50% is a great number ChairmanAgnostic Jun 2015 #2
LOL, yes, just terrible that she is at 50%, more than double her closest competitor stevenleser Jun 2015 #7
When running at a track meet aspirant Jun 2015 #25
It's not even November yet, and Obama was further behind in 2007 then... cascadiance Jun 2015 #27
You're comparing apples and oranges. He was closer in the national poll than the graph you show. nt stevenleser Jun 2015 #28
IF you look at the IA polls at this time in the 08 cycle she was actually losing or tied in IA. DemocratSinceBirth Jun 2015 #36
That's good. Bradical79 Jun 2015 #21
true, all. ChairmanAgnostic Jun 2015 #31
Wow, Sanders has gained a lot of ground. /nt Marr Jun 2015 #3
Awesome news. I guess I shouldn't be surprised. Vattel Jun 2015 #5
While he IS a good man, and would make a good candidate........ clarice Jun 2015 #11
I too worry about his electability. Vattel Jun 2015 #15
THAT'S the real question. nt clarice Jun 2015 #24
There are many Republicans that hate the TPA/TPP as much as us "liberals"... cascadiance Jun 2015 #30
This came to mind after seeing the unfavorable numbers hootinholler Jun 2015 #6
Are you referring to these unfavorable numbers ? DemocratSinceBirth Jun 2015 #9
Actually no hootinholler Jun 2015 #18
And she gets a higher mark on foreign policy by 84-3! and 72-12% on beating the Rethuglicans, DemocratSinceBirth Jun 2015 #20
Good thing for Hilary Americans are pretty clueless about foreign policy. Comrade Grumpy Jun 2015 #22
She repaired relationships with our allies that was fractured during the Bush years... DemocratSinceBirth Jun 2015 #23
Unfavorables down and favorables up is the real story in this poll. winter is coming Jun 2015 #33
Last poll I saw had Bernie low teens LittleBlue Jun 2015 #14
"The socialist" -- so this is way it'll be played, eh, Bloomberg? nt Buns_of_Fire Jun 2015 #16
I view that as continued good news. Bernie 2016 Jun 2015 #19
Bernie cut in half the space between him and Hillary. Great work. morningfog Jun 2015 #26
He is actually thirty two points behind in New Hampshire in the latest poll. DemocratSinceBirth Jun 2015 #29
Bummer! morningfog Jun 2015 #41
Today is a good day for all of us thanx to SCOTUS. Don't let a poll get you down ! DemocratSinceBirth Jun 2015 #44
Cheers to that. morningfog Jun 2015 #47
I hadn't seen the latest numbers. Really encouraging. Thanks for posting that. n/t Tarheel_Dem Jun 2015 #46
But when the primaries leave the homogenous enclaves of New England and come to America.... Tarheel_Dem Jun 2015 #34
I'm not counting on anything. We have a long way to go, and Bernie morningfog Jun 2015 #42
Her support is a mile wide and an inch deep. neverforget Jun 2015 #32
You are making two statements that are mutually exclusive. DemocratSinceBirth Jun 2015 #38
They know her. They don't know Bernie. neverforget Jun 2015 #39
Yes, and the people in IA and NH largely, largely... largely hold favorable opinions of her DemocratSinceBirth Jun 2015 #43
People can't change their minds when they learn more about someone? neverforget Jun 2015 #49
That doesn't speak well for Bernie. He's been in DC for decades, and "they don't know him"? Tarheel_Dem Jun 2015 #45
Being First Lady for 8 years, Senator for 9 and Secretary of State for 4 years. neverforget Jun 2015 #48
Terrific news for Hillary. She's going to win in a blow-out in Iowa. NYC Liberal Jun 2015 #37
And everyone else, with the exception of Vermont LordGlenconner Jun 2015 #40
O'malley had a prob taking down racist flags... realFedUp Jun 2015 #50
seriously - 50% to 24% - that's a landslide for Hillary samsingh Jun 2015 #51

BlueCheese

(2,522 posts)
12. I gotta move to one of these states.
Thu Jun 25, 2015, 12:29 PM
Jun 2015

They get nonstop attention from the candidates for six months, and I get virtually nothing.

Not to mention the complete inanity of the caucus process, one that draws minuscule turnout and excludes a large number of people who work shifts, are deployed overseas, or have kids at home. If we used the caucus process for a general election, even this Supreme Court would strike it down as restrictive and unconstitutional.

Agschmid

(28,749 posts)
13. I live in Mass, but if I wanted to get involved with any candidate...
Thu Jun 25, 2015, 12:30 PM
Jun 2015

I can drive 20 minutes and be on the front lines of any campaign.

ChairmanAgnostic

(28,017 posts)
2. 50% is a great number
Thu Jun 25, 2015, 11:50 AM
Jun 2015

If you are a republican.

NOT if you are the anointed, guaranteed, expected one.

If she falls below 50%, she will have to worry more publicly, rather than just privately. Already we are seeing bizarre posts about Bernie, attacks from the side, sniping, and character assassination by certain members here - as if they were on her campaign staff.

 

stevenleser

(32,886 posts)
7. LOL, yes, just terrible that she is at 50%, more than double her closest competitor
Thu Jun 25, 2015, 12:10 PM
Jun 2015

Much better to be at 24% looking up at the frontrunner.

aspirant

(3,533 posts)
25. When running at a track meet
Thu Jun 25, 2015, 02:29 PM
Jun 2015

it's not always wise to be the rabbit and trip and fall on the last lap from exhaustion finishing last.

 

stevenleser

(32,886 posts)
28. You're comparing apples and oranges. He was closer in the national poll than the graph you show. nt
Thu Jun 25, 2015, 02:35 PM
Jun 2015
 

Bradical79

(4,490 posts)
21. That's good.
Thu Jun 25, 2015, 01:19 PM
Jun 2015

I don't want anyone to ever think they have the nomination wrapped up until the actual votes start coming in. It seems like a bad sign for the party if no other candidates can close the gap. Low unfavorably ratings also sound like a good sign for voter enthusiasm to me.

ChairmanAgnostic

(28,017 posts)
31. true, all.
Thu Jun 25, 2015, 02:47 PM
Jun 2015

Although I think we could do much better than Hillary, she still is far better than any of the Klown Kar Kandidates.

heh, come to think of it, I heard both CNN AND Msnbc refer to them as a Klown Kar.

 

Vattel

(9,289 posts)
5. Awesome news. I guess I shouldn't be surprised.
Thu Jun 25, 2015, 11:55 AM
Jun 2015

Bernie is by far the best candidate. Only unfamiliarity with him and the truth stands between him and victory.

 

clarice

(5,504 posts)
11. While he IS a good man, and would make a good candidate........
Thu Jun 25, 2015, 12:26 PM
Jun 2015

The repugs would LOVE to run against him. IMHO

 

Vattel

(9,289 posts)
15. I too worry about his electability.
Thu Jun 25, 2015, 12:37 PM
Jun 2015

I sincerely doubt that he can win any red states. But I also suspect that he can win in the blue states (especially if the Republican candidate is further right). Can he win any purple states? I really have no idea.

 

cascadiance

(19,537 posts)
30. There are many Republicans that hate the TPA/TPP as much as us "liberals"...
Thu Jun 25, 2015, 02:44 PM
Jun 2015

It is a populist issue that Bernie supports that Clinton hasn't been actively supporting, and many other Republicans haven't either. There are quite a few other populist issues that Bernie supports that one can't allow the corporatist media to continue to label as 'far left' when they appeal to a majority of Americans and therefore can't be just conveniently pigeonholed as "far left". I personally talked to a Republican the other night who tried to rationalize his rejection of these bills by reaching back to his studying of the John Birch Society and their rejection of other efforts to get rid of our national sovereignty as well. I pushed aside the John Birch Society as something I wasn't going to look at, but I did have a good discussion with him where we shared a lot of views on rejecting what many as Democrats and Republicans reject when it has that weakness and moves away from what our constitutional founders wanted in this country. I wouldn't be surprised if he might vote for Bernie at some point too.

I think people will be surprised how many thinking Republicans and independents will be building up Bernie's base in addition to "left wing" Democrats.

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,719 posts)
9. Are you referring to these unfavorable numbers ?
Thu Jun 25, 2015, 12:23 PM
Jun 2015
Among likely Democratic voters, she's viewed favorably by 88 percent in Iowa and 86 percent in New Hampshire. That's up two points since May in Iowa and unchanged in New Hampshire, and comparable to the popularity of her husband, former President Bill Clinton.

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2015-06-25/bernie-sanders-gains-on-hillary-clinton-in-bloomberg-early-state-polling



hootinholler

(26,449 posts)
18. Actually no
Thu Jun 25, 2015, 01:05 PM
Jun 2015

I wish Bloomberg would publish the questions and cross tabs.

With nearly identical support in Iowa and New Hampshire, the polls suggest Sanders' rise isn’t just because he enjoys New England neighbor-state status. In both states, he gets higher marks than Clinton on authenticity and willingness to take on Wall Street and financial elites.

Along the campaign trail, Sanders appears to be changing some minds: His unfavorable rating in Iowa is just 4 percent, down 8 percentage points since May. At the same time, 57 percent now view him positively, up 10 points from the last poll.
-ibid

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,719 posts)
20. And she gets a higher mark on foreign policy by 84-3! and 72-12% on beating the Rethuglicans,
Thu Jun 25, 2015, 01:09 PM
Jun 2015

And she gets a higher mark on foreign policy by 84-3! and 72-12% on beating the Rethuglicans, the latter of which is all I really give a hoot about.

 

Comrade Grumpy

(13,184 posts)
22. Good thing for Hilary Americans are pretty clueless about foreign policy.
Thu Jun 25, 2015, 01:27 PM
Jun 2015

I think she gets points by virtue of having been Secretary of State, as opposed to any accomplishments she actually had as Secretary of State. What were those again?

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,719 posts)
23. She repaired relationships with our allies that was fractured during the Bush years...
Thu Jun 25, 2015, 01:53 PM
Jun 2015

She repaired relationships with our allies that was fractured during the Bush years...She began the rapprochement with Iran that is going to result in an agreement to forestall their nuclear weapons program. She made human rights, women's rights and GLBTQ rights a major part of her agenda.


Now that we got that out of the way let's now talk about the six out of every seven Iowa and New Hampshire Democrats who indicated they believe Senator Sanders is a weak general election candidate and the six out of seven Iowa Democrats and the four out of five New Hampshire Democrats who indicate Hillary Clinton will be better at getting things done

winter is coming

(11,785 posts)
33. Unfavorables down and favorables up is the real story in this poll.
Thu Jun 25, 2015, 02:54 PM
Jun 2015

And yes, one of my pet peeves about most polls is they don't give you enough information about exactly what was asked.

 

Bernie 2016

(90 posts)
19. I view that as continued good news.
Thu Jun 25, 2015, 01:06 PM
Jun 2015

Bernie continues to rise on each polls... and I think the summer will show that people will start learning about Bernie and discovering the contrast with him and Ms. Clinton.

 

morningfog

(18,115 posts)
26. Bernie cut in half the space between him and Hillary. Great work.
Thu Jun 25, 2015, 02:34 PM
Jun 2015

Within 10 in NH and within 24 in Iowa. No wonder Hillary surrogates were already dismissing Iowa and NH as possible losses. These gains will continue.

Tarheel_Dem

(31,258 posts)
34. But when the primaries leave the homogenous enclaves of New England and come to America....
Thu Jun 25, 2015, 02:55 PM
Jun 2015

we'll see the Clinton firewall take effect. I wouldn't count on NH. Just a reality check. Remember this?


MANCHESTER, N.H. — Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton won New Hampshire's Democratic primary Tuesday night, pulling out a stunning victory over Sen. Barack Obama in a contest that she had been forecast to lose.

With 96 percent of the New Hampshire vote tabulated before counters shut down for the night, Clinton had 39 percent, Obama 36 percent and former Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina 17 percent. New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson trailed with 5 percent and Rep. Dennis Kucinich had 1 percent.



http://www.nbcnews.com/id/22551718/ns/politics-decision_08/t/stunner-nh-clinton-defeats-obama/#.VYxMLU1FDcs
 

morningfog

(18,115 posts)
42. I'm not counting on anything. We have a long way to go, and Bernie
Thu Jun 25, 2015, 03:18 PM
Jun 2015

has a tough road ahead to upset the money-name juggernaut that is Hillary Clinton.

I also didn't realize that Iowa was a New England enclave, I'll have to go back to the map.

neverforget

(9,437 posts)
32. Her support is a mile wide and an inch deep.
Thu Jun 25, 2015, 02:49 PM
Jun 2015

Every Democrat knows who Hillary Clinton is and what she has done. Bernie Sanders, the Senator from Vermont, not so much. Once people hear him, they like him.

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,719 posts)
38. You are making two statements that are mutually exclusive.
Thu Jun 25, 2015, 03:05 PM
Jun 2015

"Her support is a mile wide and an inch deep."


"Every Democrat knows who Hillary Clinton is and what she has done."



The logical inference is they know what she's done and like her enough to vote for her.

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,719 posts)
43. Yes, and the people in IA and NH largely, largely... largely hold favorable opinions of her
Thu Jun 25, 2015, 03:18 PM
Jun 2015


Yes, and the people in IA and NH largely, largely... largely hold favorable opinions of her:


Among likely Democratic voters, she's viewed favorably by 88 percent in Iowa and 86 percent in New Hampshire. That's up two points since May in Iowa and unchanged in New Hampshire, and comparable to the popularity of her husband, former President Bill Clinton.

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2015-06-25/bernie-sanders-gains-on-hillary-clinton-in-bloomberg-early-state-polling




So why should that change as they learn more about other candidates?

neverforget

(9,437 posts)
48. Being First Lady for 8 years, Senator for 9 and Secretary of State for 4 years.
Thu Jun 25, 2015, 07:11 PM
Jun 2015

There's only 1 First Lady and Secretary of State at a time so it's pretty difficult to get as much publicity being a Congressman and then Senator compared to FLOTUS and SOS.

samsingh

(17,607 posts)
51. seriously - 50% to 24% - that's a landslide for Hillary
Thu Jun 25, 2015, 07:19 PM
Jun 2015

but i quess if Bernie keeps growing his support as he has been doing he'll be at 300% in a few months. oh wait.

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