Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member Latest Breaking News General Discussion The DU Lounge All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search

RandySF

(59,907 posts)
Sun Jun 28, 2015, 10:51 PM Jun 2015

12 Devastating Consequences if Greece Returns to the Drachma

1. Rapid devaluation of the drachma against other currencies (the rate might surpass 1,000 ???/1€). An attempt to tie the drachma to the euro and lock the conversion rate is doomed to fail (as it failed in the case of Argentina), because of the huge capital flight and depletion of foreign exchange reserves.

2. The devaluation will lead to skyrocketing inflation at levels equal and greater than 40 percent, further limiting thereby the purchasing power of citizens.

3. Capital flight and a sharp increase in non-performing loans will be the coup de grace for the weak country's financial system, which would collapse, "drying" the real economy.

4. In such an eventuality the wage and pension freeze payment will be inevitable for a while until the partial restoration of liquidity. The consequences from social unrest that will likely follow are unpredictable.

5. Gross domestic product will likely shrink to about 2/3 of the current level.

6. The public debt of Greece, totaling 322 billion euros, will increase automatically depending on the amount of the depreciation of the drachma, multiplying our borrowings.

7. Even if, after bankruptcy, a partial debt restructuring follows, it will not be painless. It will be accompanied by a new rescue package (only from the IMF now) and very burdensome fiscal adjustment measures.

8. There will be an equal increase of private debt through the skyrocketing of lending and depositing rates in an effort to control inflation. Higher interest rates will also make it difficult for businesses to raise capital.

9. Suffocation of import business due to a weakened market, the devaluation of the drachma and the obvious lack of credit.

10. Failure of imports will bring shortage of essential items on the market since, as we know, Greece is not self-sufficient in raw materials and meets its needs (eg. wheat, milk, meat) by imports from foreign countries.

11. Invasion of predatory foreign investors, who will acquire companies, property, and public property at derisory prices. It will lead to a sellout of the country, now claimed by the proponents of the drachma.

12. Diplomatic and economic isolation of Greece, who, being in a very difficult situation, will not be able to follow geopolitical developments in the region, as well as any challenges by its neighbors.



http://www.huffingtonpost.com/dimitriosgiokas/12-consequences-if-greece-returns-to-the-drachma_b_7682982.html

43 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
12 Devastating Consequences if Greece Returns to the Drachma (Original Post) RandySF Jun 2015 OP
Says who? MannyGoldstein Jun 2015 #1
Dimitrios Giokas RandySF Jun 2015 #3
Almost as qualified as Larry Summers MannyGoldstein Jun 2015 #17
Bankers, probably Warpy Jun 2015 #4
I imagine no one will do business with Athens. RandySF Jun 2015 #6
Not for a while, certainly Warpy Jun 2015 #37
they are damned if they do, and damned if they don't virtualobserver Jun 2015 #2
+1 daleanime Jun 2015 #20
That's if Greece decides to continue to abide by the rules of global KingCharlemagne Jun 2015 #5
If they don't pay their debts, who will finance their operations? RandySF Jun 2015 #7
The top 1% of Greece should see its wealth expropriated by the proletariat to KingCharlemagne Jun 2015 #10
The top 1% of Greece have long since moved their wealth to non-Greek banks. stevenleser Jun 2015 #14
Two questions -- Nuclear Unicorn Jun 2015 #34
Not answer to those, IDK. But if you can, answer me this: freshwest Jun 2015 #39
clearly, the US military needs to get involved. KG Jun 2015 #8
Maybe we'll do the same wonders to the cradle of democracy that KingCharlemagne Jun 2015 #12
If the foundation is crooked, you have to burn the azmom Jun 2015 #9
THey're damned if they do, damned if they don't Cal Carpenter Jun 2015 #11
A democratic socialist revolution might offer them a way out of the mousetrap. Revolution KingCharlemagne Jun 2015 #13
The Revolution either "worked" for them, or they died. Great compromise. tritsofme Jun 2015 #15
Well, truth to tell, they all died eventually, your snark notwithstanding - nt KingCharlemagne Jun 2015 #18
So true, makes little difference if you die in a purge, at a Gulag, or at home with your loving family tritsofme Jun 2015 #32
So, Communism? shenmue Jun 2015 #16
Sigh. - nt KingCharlemagne Jun 2015 #19
NEP. Igel Jun 2015 #21
That must explain why some 67% of Russians polled about 10 years ago evinced a desire KingCharlemagne Jun 2015 #24
A few weeks ago, George W Bush was polled as more popular than a Barack Obama. Calista241 Jun 2015 #43
You don't understand, those were all bourgeois, everyone else was all smiles all the time! tritsofme Jun 2015 #26
Where are those smiling North Koreans when we need them? NuclearDem Jun 2015 #31
Here you go! FrodosPet Jun 2015 #38
You must be kidding mythology Jun 2015 #22
I love the way you anti-Soviets trot out your propaganda with nary a source, nor KingCharlemagne Jun 2015 #25
Oh, you're serious? NuclearDem Jun 2015 #23
You're so precious. - nt KingCharlemagne Jun 2015 #27
Hey, if you want to believe the delusional nonsense about the 1917 and 1947 revolutions.. NuclearDem Jun 2015 #30
This is pretty special. tritsofme Jun 2015 #28
Yikes! riderinthestorm Jun 2015 #29
You're trolling, right? Recursion Jun 2015 #42
You mean you can't sloganize your way into prosperity? Weird. Nuclear Unicorn Jun 2015 #33
There are consequences either way. They should go the way of the people and let the bankers jwirr Jun 2015 #35
the eurozone must quarantine this democratic contagion... killbotfactory Jun 2015 #36
Ok, now the author needs to re-do their analysis with the capital controls that are already in place jeff47 Jun 2015 #40
Better to end in terror than to have terror without end. dawg Jun 2015 #41

Warpy

(111,481 posts)
4. Bankers, probably
Sun Jun 28, 2015, 10:59 PM
Jun 2015

It's hard to imagine anything much worse than they've already been through. While imported products will be unaffordable, domestic products will be favored, and that means a much more favorable position for labor to be in.

If they do say "fuck it" and leave, defaulting on their debt and thumbing their noses at the IMF, Germany, and the other banksters, they will be very interesting to watch. Portugal, Italy, Spain, and Ireland will certainly be watching and learning.

Warpy

(111,481 posts)
37. Not for a while, certainly
Mon Jun 29, 2015, 12:43 AM
Jun 2015

First people to start will be importing things like fish and olive oil after their agriculture rebounds.

 

virtualobserver

(8,760 posts)
2. they are damned if they do, and damned if they don't
Sun Jun 28, 2015, 10:53 PM
Jun 2015

in every game the final score is Bankers 1, People 0

 

KingCharlemagne

(7,908 posts)
5. That's if Greece decides to continue to abide by the rules of global
Sun Jun 28, 2015, 11:03 PM
Jun 2015

capitalism. However, a genuine democratic socialist revolution inside Greece (under a common front of Syriza and KKE) could allow Greece to renounce all ECB and IMF debt (basically telling German and French creditors to take a hike), to provide for the common welfare of its citizenry along socialist principles (from each according to his ability, to each according to his need) and to organize self defnse units to protect Greece against the scenario outlined in #11, as practiced by the imperialist powers.

 

KingCharlemagne

(7,908 posts)
10. The top 1% of Greece should see its wealth expropriated by the proletariat to
Sun Jun 28, 2015, 11:18 PM
Jun 2015

'finance their operations.' Marxism 101.

 

stevenleser

(32,886 posts)
14. The top 1% of Greece have long since moved their wealth to non-Greek banks.
Sun Jun 28, 2015, 11:22 PM
Jun 2015

As citizens of the EU, they can simply relocate. Greece will not be able to touch their money.

Next plan to produce finance where there is none?

Nuclear Unicorn

(19,497 posts)
34. Two questions --
Mon Jun 29, 2015, 12:21 AM
Jun 2015

1. How much money would that bring in (assuming it hasn't already fled)?

2. Then what happens?

Greece isn't self sustaining and the government has done nothing to make it so. I doubt the amount of money they could steal would cover their debts let alone allow them to meet future expenses. Even if the government gave each citizen a per capita share of the stolen funds outside suppliers aren't going to deal with a nation that just up and steals whatever it thinks it needs. Argentina also learned that stealing other people's property means those other nations will reciprocate.

freshwest

(53,661 posts)
39. Not answer to those, IDK. But if you can, answer me this:
Mon Jun 29, 2015, 03:55 AM
Jun 2015

Why isn't Greece self-sustaining?

It's not like they haven't been there in some form or another much longer than the USA has.

They are an ancient country in some respects. How did they get along without all of this debt and being in the EU?

I would think it would be good for Greece itself and for the EU if they can't get along.

 

KingCharlemagne

(7,908 posts)
12. Maybe we'll do the same wonders to the cradle of democracy that
Reply to KG (Reply #8)
Sun Jun 28, 2015, 11:20 PM
Jun 2015

we did to the cradle of civilization, eh?

Cal Carpenter

(4,959 posts)
11. THey're damned if they do, damned if they don't
Sun Jun 28, 2015, 11:18 PM
Jun 2015

Some measure of economic sovereignty can't be worse than what is happening now. Fucking austerity. This is straight up economic imperialism and there is no easy, immediate solution.

 

KingCharlemagne

(7,908 posts)
13. A democratic socialist revolution might offer them a way out of the mousetrap. Revolution
Sun Jun 28, 2015, 11:22 PM
Jun 2015

worked for the common Russians (non-bourgeois) in 1917 and the mass of Chinese (non-landlord) in 1947.

tritsofme

(17,449 posts)
32. So true, makes little difference if you die in a purge, at a Gulag, or at home with your loving family
Mon Jun 29, 2015, 12:06 AM
Jun 2015

Though for some reason I might prefer the latter.

Igel

(35,393 posts)
21. NEP.
Sun Jun 28, 2015, 11:48 PM
Jun 2015

Once they'd confiscated everything and run through it they had a trashed economy and a real problem. They locked it down by stopping currency transfers. And they had a NEP to try to restore some economic functioning.

Kolyma, a prison camp that Lenin said he despised and promptly shut down, was reopened. It gave some place for his political prisoners to go--at a huge death rate--but more importantly it provided gems and precious metals that Lenin could sell. That happened quickly after stability was re-established, and it was a huge secret at the time. Because it was, essentially, a "campaign promise." This is just the history of Kolyma and the reasons given in the archives, and comes from histories of that particular camp, the one that Shalamov was at.

Lenin stabilized things under the NEP. Stalin launched large industrialization schemes, but at a horrible price: Men were put into barracks and worked for room and board. And the death rate at his construction sites were large. And even then, Stalin's push didn't match the rate of industrialization under the tsar before WWI.

All the problems were in spite of owning all the assets and telling people where they'd work and what they'd do once the NEP was over. In spite of free labor from college students during the summer. And "subbotniki", "volunteer" Saturdays that the urban proletariat were obliged to "donate" for things like harvesting potatoes or wheat.

Another economic analysis post 1991 pointed out a bit of a disturbing fact, however. The USSR's economy improved, held steady, and finally became stagnant and declined over the period from the late 1920s to the 1980s; there was a major hiccup because of WWII. But besides WWII-related things, the state of the economy was directly related to the number of prisoners in the work camps.

In other words, the USSR was, to a large extent, dependent on slave labor. It was true for some of the engineering and scientific progress they made--many of the political prisoners were "intellectuals" with degrees. It was true for a lot of the low-skill goods. This analysis was completely separate from the history of the Kolyma camp.

In the mid 1990s they opened the archives. By 2001 Putin was seeing to it that the archives were being closed again. It was far too humiliating, all those contemporaneous records.

 

KingCharlemagne

(7,908 posts)
24. That must explain why some 67% of Russians polled about 10 years ago evinced a desire
Sun Jun 28, 2015, 11:55 PM
Jun 2015

to return to the system of the USSR.

Calista241

(5,586 posts)
43. A few weeks ago, George W Bush was polled as more popular than a Barack Obama.
Mon Jun 29, 2015, 11:11 AM
Jun 2015

A nostalgia for the past is not proof that shit didn't suck back then. People tend to remember the positives, and forget all the bad shit.

 

mythology

(9,527 posts)
22. You must be kidding
Sun Jun 28, 2015, 11:53 PM
Jun 2015

The policies of China after the 1940s led directly to the Great Famine which killed somewhere between 20 and 45 million people. And you think that was a success? How many people dying would it take to qualify as a failure?

The Russian Revolutions in 1917 led to famines and a sharp downfall in industrial production, and it led to the rise to power of Joseph Stalin who killed somewhere between 35 and 50 million people, not counting wartime deaths.

Truly a wonderful set of examples for Greece to follow.

 

KingCharlemagne

(7,908 posts)
25. I love the way you anti-Soviets trot out your propaganda with nary a source, nor
Sun Jun 28, 2015, 11:57 PM
Jun 2015

even a glance in that direction.

 

NuclearDem

(16,184 posts)
30. Hey, if you want to believe the delusional nonsense about the 1917 and 1947 revolutions..
Mon Jun 29, 2015, 12:03 AM
Jun 2015

...go right on ahead.

Those countless millions of bodies in China, Siberia, and Ukraine? Western capitalist propaganda.

 

riderinthestorm

(23,272 posts)
29. Yikes!
Mon Jun 29, 2015, 12:00 AM
Jun 2015


You're actually serious here. Wow!

The many millions who died would take some umbrage at your suggestion...

I can't wait to read this thread in the morning. Heading to bed now.


Recursion

(56,582 posts)
42. You're trolling, right?
Mon Jun 29, 2015, 11:04 AM
Jun 2015

20 million or so dead between those two catastrophic revolutions and the famines, mass killings, and mass forced migrations after them...

jwirr

(39,215 posts)
35. There are consequences either way. They should go the way of the people and let the bankers
Mon Jun 29, 2015, 12:28 AM
Jun 2015

slide.

jeff47

(26,549 posts)
40. Ok, now the author needs to re-do their analysis with the capital controls that are already in place
Mon Jun 29, 2015, 10:49 AM
Jun 2015

It's stunning just how bad most "economic" articles are.

dawg

(10,626 posts)
41. Better to end in terror than to have terror without end.
Mon Jun 29, 2015, 10:53 AM
Jun 2015

Following the dictates of the troika, and trying to remain in the Euro, has already led to a depression that exceeds both the depth and duration of the Great Depression experienced by the U.S. in the thirties.

Something has to give. Further attempts at austerity will only make things worse.

Latest Discussions»General Discussion»12 Devastating Consequenc...