General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region Forums12 Devastating Consequences if Greece Returns to the Drachma
1. Rapid devaluation of the drachma against other currencies (the rate might surpass 1,000 ???/1). An attempt to tie the drachma to the euro and lock the conversion rate is doomed to fail (as it failed in the case of Argentina), because of the huge capital flight and depletion of foreign exchange reserves.
2. The devaluation will lead to skyrocketing inflation at levels equal and greater than 40 percent, further limiting thereby the purchasing power of citizens.
3. Capital flight and a sharp increase in non-performing loans will be the coup de grace for the weak country's financial system, which would collapse, "drying" the real economy.
4. In such an eventuality the wage and pension freeze payment will be inevitable for a while until the partial restoration of liquidity. The consequences from social unrest that will likely follow are unpredictable.
5. Gross domestic product will likely shrink to about 2/3 of the current level.
6. The public debt of Greece, totaling 322 billion euros, will increase automatically depending on the amount of the depreciation of the drachma, multiplying our borrowings.
7. Even if, after bankruptcy, a partial debt restructuring follows, it will not be painless. It will be accompanied by a new rescue package (only from the IMF now) and very burdensome fiscal adjustment measures.
8. There will be an equal increase of private debt through the skyrocketing of lending and depositing rates in an effort to control inflation. Higher interest rates will also make it difficult for businesses to raise capital.
9. Suffocation of import business due to a weakened market, the devaluation of the drachma and the obvious lack of credit.
10. Failure of imports will bring shortage of essential items on the market since, as we know, Greece is not self-sufficient in raw materials and meets its needs (eg. wheat, milk, meat) by imports from foreign countries.
11. Invasion of predatory foreign investors, who will acquire companies, property, and public property at derisory prices. It will lead to a sellout of the country, now claimed by the proponents of the drachma.
12. Diplomatic and economic isolation of Greece, who, being in a very difficult situation, will not be able to follow geopolitical developments in the region, as well as any challenges by its neighbors.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/dimitriosgiokas/12-consequences-if-greece-returns-to-the-drachma_b_7682982.html
MannyGoldstein
(34,589 posts)And who is paying that person's salary?
RandySF
(59,907 posts)Professor of Economics at the National and Kapodistrian University of Athens.
http://en.econ.uoa.gr/staff/teaching-and-research-staff/alphabetic-order/giokas-dimitrios.html
MannyGoldstein
(34,589 posts)Still don't know what his income sources are.
Warpy
(111,481 posts)It's hard to imagine anything much worse than they've already been through. While imported products will be unaffordable, domestic products will be favored, and that means a much more favorable position for labor to be in.
If they do say "fuck it" and leave, defaulting on their debt and thumbing their noses at the IMF, Germany, and the other banksters, they will be very interesting to watch. Portugal, Italy, Spain, and Ireland will certainly be watching and learning.
RandySF
(59,907 posts)Warpy
(111,481 posts)First people to start will be importing things like fish and olive oil after their agriculture rebounds.
virtualobserver
(8,760 posts)in every game the final score is Bankers 1, People 0
daleanime
(17,796 posts)KingCharlemagne
(7,908 posts)capitalism. However, a genuine democratic socialist revolution inside Greece (under a common front of Syriza and KKE) could allow Greece to renounce all ECB and IMF debt (basically telling German and French creditors to take a hike), to provide for the common welfare of its citizenry along socialist principles (from each according to his ability, to each according to his need) and to organize self defnse units to protect Greece against the scenario outlined in #11, as practiced by the imperialist powers.
RandySF
(59,907 posts)KingCharlemagne
(7,908 posts)'finance their operations.' Marxism 101.
stevenleser
(32,886 posts)As citizens of the EU, they can simply relocate. Greece will not be able to touch their money.
Next plan to produce finance where there is none?
Nuclear Unicorn
(19,497 posts)1. How much money would that bring in (assuming it hasn't already fled)?
2. Then what happens?
Greece isn't self sustaining and the government has done nothing to make it so. I doubt the amount of money they could steal would cover their debts let alone allow them to meet future expenses. Even if the government gave each citizen a per capita share of the stolen funds outside suppliers aren't going to deal with a nation that just up and steals whatever it thinks it needs. Argentina also learned that stealing other people's property means those other nations will reciprocate.
freshwest
(53,661 posts)Why isn't Greece self-sustaining?
It's not like they haven't been there in some form or another much longer than the USA has.
They are an ancient country in some respects. How did they get along without all of this debt and being in the EU?
I would think it would be good for Greece itself and for the EU if they can't get along.
KG
(28,753 posts)KingCharlemagne
(7,908 posts)we did to the cradle of civilization, eh?
azmom
(5,208 posts)Fucking thing and start over.
Cal Carpenter
(4,959 posts)Some measure of economic sovereignty can't be worse than what is happening now. Fucking austerity. This is straight up economic imperialism and there is no easy, immediate solution.
KingCharlemagne
(7,908 posts)worked for the common Russians (non-bourgeois) in 1917 and the mass of Chinese (non-landlord) in 1947.
tritsofme
(17,449 posts)Someone's lost in La-la land.
KingCharlemagne
(7,908 posts)tritsofme
(17,449 posts)Though for some reason I might prefer the latter.
shenmue
(38,506 posts)Are you kidding?
KingCharlemagne
(7,908 posts)Igel
(35,393 posts)Once they'd confiscated everything and run through it they had a trashed economy and a real problem. They locked it down by stopping currency transfers. And they had a NEP to try to restore some economic functioning.
Kolyma, a prison camp that Lenin said he despised and promptly shut down, was reopened. It gave some place for his political prisoners to go--at a huge death rate--but more importantly it provided gems and precious metals that Lenin could sell. That happened quickly after stability was re-established, and it was a huge secret at the time. Because it was, essentially, a "campaign promise." This is just the history of Kolyma and the reasons given in the archives, and comes from histories of that particular camp, the one that Shalamov was at.
Lenin stabilized things under the NEP. Stalin launched large industrialization schemes, but at a horrible price: Men were put into barracks and worked for room and board. And the death rate at his construction sites were large. And even then, Stalin's push didn't match the rate of industrialization under the tsar before WWI.
All the problems were in spite of owning all the assets and telling people where they'd work and what they'd do once the NEP was over. In spite of free labor from college students during the summer. And "subbotniki", "volunteer" Saturdays that the urban proletariat were obliged to "donate" for things like harvesting potatoes or wheat.
Another economic analysis post 1991 pointed out a bit of a disturbing fact, however. The USSR's economy improved, held steady, and finally became stagnant and declined over the period from the late 1920s to the 1980s; there was a major hiccup because of WWII. But besides WWII-related things, the state of the economy was directly related to the number of prisoners in the work camps.
In other words, the USSR was, to a large extent, dependent on slave labor. It was true for some of the engineering and scientific progress they made--many of the political prisoners were "intellectuals" with degrees. It was true for a lot of the low-skill goods. This analysis was completely separate from the history of the Kolyma camp.
In the mid 1990s they opened the archives. By 2001 Putin was seeing to it that the archives were being closed again. It was far too humiliating, all those contemporaneous records.
KingCharlemagne
(7,908 posts)to return to the system of the USSR.
Calista241
(5,586 posts)A nostalgia for the past is not proof that shit didn't suck back then. People tend to remember the positives, and forget all the bad shit.
tritsofme
(17,449 posts)NuclearDem
(16,184 posts)FrodosPet
(5,169 posts)mythology
(9,527 posts)The policies of China after the 1940s led directly to the Great Famine which killed somewhere between 20 and 45 million people. And you think that was a success? How many people dying would it take to qualify as a failure?
The Russian Revolutions in 1917 led to famines and a sharp downfall in industrial production, and it led to the rise to power of Joseph Stalin who killed somewhere between 35 and 50 million people, not counting wartime deaths.
Truly a wonderful set of examples for Greece to follow.
KingCharlemagne
(7,908 posts)even a glance in that direction.
NuclearDem
(16,184 posts)Oh my.
KingCharlemagne
(7,908 posts)NuclearDem
(16,184 posts)...go right on ahead.
Those countless millions of bodies in China, Siberia, and Ukraine? Western capitalist propaganda.
tritsofme
(17,449 posts)riderinthestorm
(23,272 posts)You're actually serious here. Wow!
The many millions who died would take some umbrage at your suggestion...
I can't wait to read this thread in the morning. Heading to bed now.
Recursion
(56,582 posts)20 million or so dead between those two catastrophic revolutions and the famines, mass killings, and mass forced migrations after them...
Nuclear Unicorn
(19,497 posts)jwirr
(39,215 posts)slide.
killbotfactory
(13,566 posts)jeff47
(26,549 posts)It's stunning just how bad most "economic" articles are.
dawg
(10,626 posts)Following the dictates of the troika, and trying to remain in the Euro, has already led to a depression that exceeds both the depth and duration of the Great Depression experienced by the U.S. in the thirties.
Something has to give. Further attempts at austerity will only make things worse.