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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsAnnan tinkering with a radical idea for reviving his moribund peace plan for Syria
Whats intriguing about Annans new approach is that it could give Russia and Iran, the two key supporters of Assads survival, some motivation to remove him from power, and also some leverage to protect their interests in a post-Assad Syria. This would also make the plan controversial, with Israel and Saudi Arabia asking why the United Nations would give the mullahs in Tehran a share of the diplomatic action.
To break the deadlock, Annan would create his contact group, composed of the permanent members of the U.N. Security Council (Britain, China, France, Russia and the United States), plus Saudi Arabia and perhaps Qatar to represent the Arab League, and Turkey and Iran. The idea is to bring together the countries with most influence on the situation.
This unwieldy group would then draft a transition plan and take it to Assad and the Syrian opposition. This road map would call for a presidential election to choose Assads successor, plus a parliamentary ballot and a new constitution with a timeline for achieving these milestones.
Assad would presumably depart for Russia, which is said to have offered him exile; the Syrian dictator is rumored to have transferred $6 billion in Syrian reserves to Moscow already. Under this scenario, Assad presumably could avoid international prosecution for war crimes. Iran is also said to have offered exile to Assad and his family.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/annans-new-road-map-for-peace-in-syria/2012/06/05/gJQAMuDiGV_story.html
Who knows if Annan really thinks this might work. It certainly sounds unwieldy and overly complicated.
David__77
(23,644 posts)This will not happen for so many reasons...
riderinthestorm
(23,272 posts)Selatius
(20,441 posts)Assad's military apparatus is far stronger in size and scope than anything that Col. Gaddafi was able to muster, and what tipped the game in favor of the rebels there was that the allies had managed to game Russia and China into allowing the Security Council to OK air strikes against the heavy tank units of Gaddafi's military.
riderinthestorm
(23,272 posts)for war crimes - why would he not fight this til the death? Besides, he has extremely powerful allies in Iran, China and Russia - he's not isolated by a long shot since they're willing to provide financial and armed support.
His speech before his Parliament framed this fight as a religious sectarian battle with western powers providing active support. Its a powerful and toxic message (and true to a certain extent) that Shia Muslims like Assad and Iran are under attack by Sunnis (and foreign colonial powers). Make no mistake Assad has a fair number of his own people who support him since they realize his removal will mean a Shia genocide and a regional bloodbath that will make this current civil war look like a tempest in a teapot. Iran's already threatened to bomb Israel if there's more "meddling" by western powers in trying to overthrow Assad. Incendiary stuff.
David__77
(23,644 posts)And the security council won't allow such a thing to pass. So Pillay's words are not especially meaningful.