Trump will attack her viciously. The Koch network will spend millions attacking her viciously. Sanders and his supporters will continue to attack her viciously. Things are not looking good to me at all.

like the Kochs, will sit this one out.

Sanders and his supporters will stop after the convention.

And Trump has no demographic except angry white guys.

Do not lose heart.

relative ages of the Supreme Court justices will lead to a significant shift in the Court. Their pro-corporate agenda is within reach now. If you think that they're not going to spend the $889 million that they have budgeted for this election, then I want some of what you're smoking...LOL

I do not believe for one moment that the Sanders supporters will stop attacking her after the convention. They hate her more than they hate Trump. This situation will not heal. They will show up at her campaign stops in August, September and October in their quest to deny her the presidency IMO.

but we shall see.

It's not obvious that the traditional GOP donor base will be eager to support Trump. Typically, they liked the GOP because it was more "business-friendly" with less taxes and regulation.

But like I said in the OP, Trump just threatened to default on the debt. If a president said something like that, markets around the world would go nuts. Treasuries are considered the single "risk-free asset" in the world, if that stops, the economic consequences are unknowable.

He's also threatening to violate free trade agreements the US is party to, and impose large punitive tariffs. The business community doesn't want that.

There are a lot of reasons to think the traditionally GOP business community will be with Hillary.

Each of your points, while valid, aren't as strong as you might imagine. Consider your point #4: The Democrats have traditionally owned these voting groups--we'll do better in each, but when you already get 93 percent of the AA vote, a few percentage points change isn't going to make that big of a difference. Same for the Hispanic and women's vote.

The downside, which you didn't address, is the mood of the independent voters. They will decide this election. Both candidates will start the GE with little support from independents. Our likely candidate has a long history of being disliked by that bloc. trump's negatives there are more recent and less visceral. That gives him an edge which I expect he will exploit.

This is going to be a tough battle, not a easy win.

I don't think it will be easy, and Trump terrifies me. This OP came out of a discussion I had with some friends last night where we said look, put away the emotions and try and think if it rationally.

The points you make are good, but if I were a disinterested betting man, my money would be on Hillary at this time.

Independents are not a monolith and come in all stripes from right-leaning conservative independents to moderates to left-leaning progressive independents.

Hillary will get her share of the latter two and Trump will get his share.

I'm betting the moderates to left-leaning progressive independents in the end won't vote to allow Trump to appoint the next 3 SCOTUS justices as that would assure a huge,rightward, generational shift of the whole country (gutting of the social safety net (Social Security gone, Medicare and Medicaid gone, pensions raided, the rest of unions gone), gutting of the rest of the civil rights acts of the 60s, deregulation of banking and environmental legislation (thinf Flint, MI everywhere) — in other words, we'd all get screwed with no possibility of change for generations.

And of course the Obama coalition will not be voting for Trump — sensible progressive whites who don't want Trump appointing the next 3 SCOTUS justices, Latino Americans, African Americans, women, gays, Asian Americans, Native Americans, and sensible, left-leaning and moderate independents — collectively these demographic segments are who mostly voted for and elected President Obama twice, and will also elect the Dem nominee to the presidency — most likely Clinton.

Notice pls that they are a very diverse group, not the angry whites and/or racist whites who support Trump, and we outnumber them.

Which scenario is most Trump-like:

1) slogging through a very expensive general election in which the world will be exposed to opposition research featuring a lifetime of his weird comments and strange behavior and personal failures and business failures...and which he will most likely lose and go back to work a loser having alienated 2/3 of the US, or.....

2) changing his style, persona, and content to appeal to the average American and becoming a different candidate, then WINNING the hardest job in the world at which he then has to perform as that different person for at least four years to avoid failure and ridicule and deliver on impossible campaign promises, or....

3) getting to the convention having 'won' the GOP primary and having 'destroyed' the 17 other candidates, then complain that he's been treated badly, spent a lot of his own personal money, and isn't supported by the establishment.....and then QUIT. Take his ball and go home. Go out on top, causing the maximum amount of confusion, media exposure, and new history text. Forever remembered for his stunt. Weeks of pundit heads exploding and party elites scrambling.

No doubt #3. This wouldn't be all that bad for the GOP either...they would get to draft a nominee that couldn't win the primary but could win the general election. They don't look like idiots for officially nominating a reality TV star. Trump wins, media wins, GOP wins. And again, Trump is in the driver's seat, calling the shots.