Just a reminder: The polls you see now are neither cause for celebration nor despair.
These are still early polls. Lots of people are still not even paying attention.
D voters vs R voters is a three to five point spread. Margins of error are typically three to four points either way. That means 50-50 poll could just as easily be a 47-53 spread or even 46-54.
LOTS and LOTS of shit will flow down the sewer before this is over. Polls will reflect which way the water in the bowl is swirling at the time they're taken.
True enough, even early polls can show "leans" or "trends", but they are merely indicators, not safe bets.
National polls, given the electoral college, are really not all that useful in presidential electoral race-calling. You really need to be looking at state by state polls. We all, no doubt, recall Idiot Son's two "victories".
The biggest indicators, I think, are enthusiasm and the size of the vote. The bigger the turnout, the better for our side.
Race and ethnicity also matter a LOT. A surge pf white people will put Drumpf over the top. Enthusiastic non-white and ethnic voting (not simply disgust with Drumpf) will put us over the top.
If you don't want to live under the orange Vulgarian, get the vote out.
And here's something else to keep in mind: the party that goes into an election divided almost always loses. Right now the Rs are that party. But the Ds could join them.
Let's be careful out there.
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