General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsStudy shows, "No racial bias in police shootings".
Here is a link to the .pdf that goes straight to the papers itself. It was conducted by Roland G. Fryer, Jr, he is an American economist and the Henry Lee Professor of Economics at Harvard University. He also maintains offices at the National Bureau of Economic Research and W. E. B. Du Bois Institute.
Here are some interesting quotes from the study.
The results obtained using these data are informative and, in some cases, startling. Using
data on NYCs Stop and Frisk program, we demonstrate that on non-lethal uses of force putting
hands on civilians (which includes slapping or grabbing) or pushing individuals into a wall or onto
the ground, there are large racial differences. In the raw data, blacks and Hispanics are more
than fifty percent more likely to have an interaction with police which involves any use of force.
Interestingly, as the intensity of force increases (e.g. handcuffing civilians without arrest, drawing
or pointing a weapon, or using pepper spray or a baton), the probability that any civilian
is subjected to such treatment is small, but the racial difference remains surprisingly constant.
For instance, 0.26 percent of interactions between police and civilians involve an officer drawing a
weapon; 0.02 percent involve using a baton. These are rare events. Yet, the results indicate that
they are significantly more rare for whites than blacks. In the raw data, blacks are 21.3 percent
more likely to be involved in an interaction with police in which at least a weapon is drawn than
whites and the difference is statistically significant. Adding our full set of controls reduces the
racial difference to 19.4 percent. Across all non-lethal uses of force, the odds-ratio of the black
coefficient ranges from 1.163 (0.036) to 1.249 (0.129).
In stark contrast to non-lethal uses of force, we find no racial differences in officer-involved
shootings on either the extensive or intensive margins. Using data from Houston, Texas where
we have both officer-involved shootings and a randomly chosen set of potential interactions with
police where lethal force may have been justified we find, in the raw data, that blacks are 23.8
percent less likely to be shot at by police relative to whites. Hispanics are 8.5 percent less likely.
Both coefficients are statistically insignificant. Adding controls for civilian demographics, officer
demographics, encounter characteristics, type of weapon civilian was carrying, and year fixed effects,
the black (resp. Hispanic) coefficient is 0.924 (0.417) (resp. 1.256 (0.595)). These coefficients are
remarkably robust across alternative empirical specifications and subsets of the data. Partitioning
the data in myriad ways, we find no evidence of racial discrimination in officer-involved shootings.
Investigating the intensive margin the timing of shootings or how many bullets were discharged
in the endeavor there are no detectable racial differences.5
Taken together, we argue that the results are most consistent with, but in no way proof of, tastebased
discrimination among police officers who face convex costs of excessive use of force. Yet, the
data does more to provide a more compelling case that there is no discrimination in officer-involved
shootings than it does to illuminate the reasons behind racial differences in non-lethal uses of force.
Link to study in .pdf form
More at the link. This study just came out, and I imagine will be coming under quite a bit of scrutiny in the coming days.
HipChick
(25,485 posts)Separation
(1,975 posts)Had you, you would have read that there is empirical data shown that Latinos and Blacks are at a higher risk of being hit, slapped, batonned, pepper sprayed. But again dont let the facts get in your way!
HipChick
(25,485 posts)Much better reference than some white-washed study..
jack_krass
(1,009 posts)uponit7771
(90,378 posts)... have.
Bringing up the culture of the person coming to the conclusion is a false credibilty by proxy
clarice
(5,504 posts)anigbrowl
(13,889 posts)I thought the fact that he holds a chair at the W. E.DuBois institute would be a tipoff but I guess not. He said himself in the paper that he was quite surprised at the result, and likewise I am sure he is fully aware of the deficiencies in reporting deaths in custody etc. that might skew this result.
You are wrong to dismiss the study without any substantive rebuttal.
Liberal_Stalwart71
(20,450 posts)Last edited Wed Jul 13, 2016, 02:12 PM - Edit history (1)
accepted as conclusive. But I see how many in White America are running away with this report--anything to prove that we black people deserve to be shot and killed and that racism and racial bias are merely a figments of our imagination.
Fuck outta here!
brush
(53,978 posts)It's all about agenda.
Wonder who paid for it?
TipTok
(2,474 posts)... is not data.
Results didn't align with your expectations so it must be 'white washed'?
clarice
(5,504 posts)brush
(53,978 posts)merrily
(45,251 posts)But, is the defense to doing bad things to people of color is that they also do bad things to white people?
Well, I know I'm sold!
Separation
(1,975 posts)merrily
(45,251 posts)because he is a person of color.
puffy socks
(1,473 posts)merrily
(45,251 posts)puffy socks
(1,473 posts)does?
What's the point?
Why is it necessary that blacks be shot more than white?
I don't see how that matters they shouldn't be shooting white people, black people, Chinese people, Native Americans, Jewish people, gay people without just cause.
Why is it so important that blacks be their largest group of victims?
merrily
(45,251 posts)Why you do you suppose the OP posted a huge picture of Mr. Fryer in reply to my post, as though his photo alone disproved my post?
It's quite interesting to me that you find nothing wrong with the posting of the photo as a reply to me. But you're all over my comment on posting a photo as a rebuttal with imagination and accusation:
puffy socks
(1,473 posts)and its painfully obvious in the context of the conversation.
The picture was posted because peopple either directly say "8. Black people experience...
Much better reference than some white-washed study.. "
or they infer ulterior motives.
Answer the question
Why is it so important thst blacks are seen as having been more victimized than whites by police?
merrily
(45,251 posts)You've falsely accused me of one thing after another based on nothing but what you imagine, and are now accusing me of having lied about my what my own post means. We're done.
puffy socks
(1,473 posts)Say what you wish , its obvious to me
Still refuse to answer the question, i noticed.
Why?
gollygee
(22,336 posts)He's limited by the information available to him. He has data from Houston and New York, but that data isn't likely to be representative of other areas in the US, particularly smaller cities and less diverse cities. Also, the study looks into whether killings are racially biased *after someone is pulled over* but doesn't look into whether there is bias in why people are pulled over in the first place. A lot of the issue people have is that black people get pulled over more often and for less serious reasons. If black people are pulled over more often, that makes a big difference in how often they'll get killed.
He acknowledges these limitations: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/13/upshot/roland-fryer-answers-reader-questions-about-his-police-force-study.html?_r=0
JustinL
(722 posts)anigbrowl
(13,889 posts)Let us know when you have an objection to his substantive points as opposed to empty rhetoric.
I am also surprised by the outcome of this study but his methodology seems excellent and he points to numerous other problems. An honest scholar doe snot hide from an unexpected result, but puts trust in the investigative method. If you think it's deficient, say where.
scscholar
(2,902 posts)and they're forcing this poor organization to lie.
uponit7771
(90,378 posts)giftedgirl77
(4,713 posts)Nice try tho.
Separation
(1,975 posts)Its a quote from the study. Which I might add is not my study. I thought it would be an interesting discussion.
giftedgirl77
(4,713 posts)Thus proving a racial bias. Whether said bias is a conscious act or not remains to be seen.
The Wielding Truth
(11,415 posts)Also a line from the study.
anigbrowl
(13,889 posts)You need to read it more carefully if you drew that conclusion.
giftedgirl77
(4,713 posts)Yet, the results indicate that
they are significantly more rare for whites than blacks. In the raw data, blacks are 21.3 percent
more likely to be involved in an interaction with police in which at least a weapon is drawn than
whites and the difference is statistically significant.
Weird.
anigbrowl
(13,889 posts)It says that police are more likely to draw a gun on a black suspect. But drawing a gun on someone is not the same as shooting them (although it is needlessly intimidating and indicative of bias). The third paragraph goes on to distinguish between the bias that the author did find and the surprising lack of bias in actual shootings. The conclusion is that while a police officer is more likely to draw a gun on a black suspect, s/he is not more likely to pull a trigger on one race than another; or put another way, while a police officer is more likely to draw a gun on a black suspect, s/he is also more likely to put it away unfired.
I'm not trying to have a go at you but you are just not reading it carefully enough. It simply does not say what you claimed it did.
Masked Dissident
(84 posts)If police are more likely to draw a gun on a black suspect, that still can suggest bias.
anigbrowl
(13,889 posts)I don't know who you think you're arguing with because I made that very point myself.
puffy socks
(1,473 posts)that black people are shot the most?
If his study shows otherwise it shows otherwise regardless of what you want to believe....so the question is, why do you want to believe that?
Liberal_Stalwart71
(20,450 posts)when it does!
uponit7771
(90,378 posts)... things not right about this study based off the data and the anomalous areas studied
giftedgirl77
(4,713 posts)to throw out after a couple more POC are executed by cops to try & show they aren't really being executed at a higher rate. However, when a white person can draw a weapon on cops after firing on others & still live while a black man can't even reach for his ID without having several rounds into him.... Actions speak louder.
uponit7771
(90,378 posts)... blaring defects and small sample size.
giftedgirl77
(4,713 posts)it would be obvious.
Liberal_Stalwart71
(20,450 posts)just as thrilled with this study and creaming their pants over it, even though the researcher himself admits that the research may be flawed and inconclusive.
giftedgirl77
(4,713 posts)dangerous bc they'll look us in the face & say they're on our side but turn around & fuck us. At least we know republicans hate us. Look up thread where they pull out the old "but the researcher is black" bullshit. So is Ben Carson & Herman Cain, doesn't mean I trust a damn thing they say.
Liberal_Stalwart71
(20,450 posts)Logical
(22,457 posts)Recursion
(56,582 posts)It says non-lethal force is disproportionately used against non-whites but lethal force is not. (Not saying that the study is accurate, but that is what the study and headline both say.)
Vattel
(9,289 posts)but it's nice to see something serious posted about this timely issue.
brush
(53,978 posts)Last edited Wed Jul 13, 2016, 04:04 PM - Edit history (2)
Seems these kind of reports crop up after the latest police murders of black people.
And we all know multiple results can be reached from small sample research studies.
A shrew manipulator can make a study say whatever who paid for it wants.
Imo, it's not credible that guns are drawn by police more on black people but fired at them less.
How about we ask the black guy in Minnesota about that?
Oh wait, we can't. He's dead.
The cop drew his gun an pumped four bullets into him as he reached for his ID and carry permit.
Glassunion
(10,201 posts)When when exactly could a report like this pop up and not be after the latest police murders of black people?
brush
(53,978 posts)Liberal_Stalwart71
(20,450 posts)Vattel
(9,289 posts)And you can't reject the conclusions of a study just because some studies are not to be trusted.
brush
(53,978 posts)video of him dying in the car after having 4 bullets pumped into his body by a scared-of-his-own-shadow, overreacting, trigger-happy cop, it's very clear what happened in Minnesota.
Vattel
(9,289 posts)The Michael Brown case looked like murder at first, but once all the evidence was in, it didn't look that way anymore.
brush
(53,978 posts)and believing.
The Michael Brown case was murder. Do you actually believe that Brown turned and kept charging into live bullets like the murdering cop said, inferring that Brown was a super human demon. Yet Brown had a bullet in the top of his head. How could that happen if he was charging?
Maybe someone stood over him and pumped a bullet into his dying body as he lay on the ground.
Think, man.
And why was a woman, known to be lying, allowed to testify, in favor of the killer cop, before the grand jury?
Why? Because the DA did what is typical of too many in the criminal justice system protected a killer cop.
They'll try the same thing in Minnesota but it's less likely to work because of the live stream video.
Vattel
(9,289 posts)That is my source, not any news media, right wing or otherwise. That report thoroughly assessed the evidence and found that it supported the conclusion that the officer acted in self defense and did not act unlawfully.
brush
(53,978 posts)Brown was unarmed, or is that not important to cop apologists?
And the lying woman whose testimony was allowed by the crooked DA?
It was murder.
Vattel
(9,289 posts)You are talking about the proceedings of the grand jury, and I agree that they were extremely messed up. That prosecutor should be disbarred for allowing someone's testimony to be heard even though he knew it was false.
Brown's being disarmed doesn't men that he was murdered. Again, you should read the DOJ report. It assesses the physical evidence including the entry points of the wounds as well as the witness testimony. I am not saying that the report is perfect or that it is immune to any criticism. But it is very professional and your conclusions are not nearly as well-informed.
brush
(53,978 posts)Brown wasn't disarmed as you say. He was unarmed.
You can keep on believing that someone, unarmed, would walk into repeated live fire if you want, like he was some superhuman demon as implied by the cop.
The sensible ones of us will not fall for that no matter how many times that lie is told.
It was murder, just like so many other murders committed against unarmed black men by racist cops.
BTW, you're playing the cop apologist role to a T.
Vattel
(9,289 posts)My conclusions are those of the DOJ report. So you must think that the authors od the DOJ report are just "cop apologists" and not "sensible" like you? I think that view is laughable.
brush
(53,978 posts)black men, that you think the one in Ferguson was somehow different.
Keep going with that. Seems to make you feel better.
Vattel
(9,289 posts)brush
(53,978 posts)other than the crooked DA of course.
Vattel
(9,289 posts)brush
(53,978 posts)Vattel
(9,289 posts)brush
(53,978 posts)Vattel
(9,289 posts)Maybe you should send them your thoughts.
brush
(53,978 posts)That's the huge elephant in the room that you keep trying to ignore, why the cop is not in jail.
Vattel
(9,289 posts)But I am not basing my conclusions about the killing of Brown on the failure of the grand jury to indict. I am basing my conclusions on the DOJ report. Get it?
And that DOJ report carefully assesses all of the witness testimony and the physical evidence and on that basis arrives at the conclusion that the total evidence favors the conclusion that Brown was not murdered. You claim he was, but unlike the DOJ investigators, you obviously haven't carefully assessed the evidence.
blm
(113,141 posts)side.
Lurks Often
(5,455 posts)will ignore any troublesome facts that don't fit into their emotion based perception of how they think things should be.
puffy socks
(1,473 posts)Liberal_Stalwart71
(20,450 posts)puffy socks
(1,473 posts)But thats not what the stidy says and if ot did Id accept the results unless there's a real reason to refute them and thats not what people in this thread are doing
They just simply dont like the results and ate dismissing them
"...still a man here's what he wants to hear and disregards the rest..." paul simon
Liberal_Stalwart71
(20,450 posts)And like the author, the particular finding that there is no inherent racial bias when it comes to cops shooting blacks doesn't make sense if blacks are more likely to be harassed, stopped, physically abused and have guns drawn on them. Guns drawn but no shooting? It doesn't make sense. That's what people seem to take issue with.
puffy socks
(1,473 posts)Last edited Wed Jul 13, 2016, 02:50 PM - Edit history (1)
"blacks are more likely to be harassed, stopped, physically abused and have guns drawn on them. Guns drawn but no shooting?"
it was a knee jerk .
No way response.
and maybe there are other factors you and the researcher haven't thought of yet.
Liberal_Stalwart71
(20,450 posts)and carry out the appropriate research methods until we get better explanations. I think the admission that the findings may be inconclusive is enough to suggest that the media outlets running with the results are being irresponsible. And those here who are championing the study because it makes them feel better about race relations are not contributing constructively to serious dialogue.
brush
(53,978 posts)more often. Try asking the two blacks guys from Baton Rouge and Minnesota about that?
Or the one from New York last week also. Yes, one happened in New York too but it went under reported because of all the other shooting last week.
pinboy3niner
(53,339 posts)There have been several threads here on the study, and at least one on an early debunking.
nemo137
(3,297 posts)Not that you're doing this, Separation. But people are seizing on this as either "hah, who's wrong now, libtard!" or "this must be wrong and the researcher is a disgrace!" not "given this specific set of data, here's what I found."
The point about use of force against blacks and Hispanics is getting underplayed, for once thing. I read someone's first look at it that also got into the weeds of exactly what data was being used in this paper, but some of it went over my head.
Separation
(1,975 posts)I even pointed out that there is data showing Latinos and Blacks are at a higher risk of non lethal force, i.e being slapped, maced, cuffed wtc. I never once said one and done case closed.
nemo137
(3,297 posts)It's the first sentence after the title, I said you weren't doing that. The rest of the reply is about how I'd seen other people on the internet (mostly twitter) reacting to it. I'm sorry if that second part was less than clear.
Warpy
(111,480 posts)It's also a brilliant example of lying with statistics. While blacks are 23.8% less likely than whites to be shot by the cops, they're also about 10% of the population, something that should figure in here, making the per capita likelihood far, far higher than for whites.
I haven't read the rest of it. I don't particularly want to. The whole system is racially biased and justified by Nixon's War on Drugs, something that has gotten us worse criminals, worse violence, worse policing, and MORE DRUGS.
We can fold up this study and stick it between the pages of "The Bell Curve," one place it would feel at home.
Separation
(1,975 posts)Warpy
(111,480 posts)Separation
(1,975 posts)by me posting a study on this forum I was hoping that some would read the study instead of just yelling "white wash, racist, bullshit" before reading the study.
The man (a black man) who did the study points out that he was surprised by its findings. He didnt downplay the racial inconsistencies of the non lethal force used on minorities, matter of fact he said it needed to be addressed.
What you and I agree on is this war on Crime/Drugs perpetuated by Nixon and being fueled even further by for profit systems is in my opinion a Crime against humanity (which have been supported sadly by Democrats in power). I saw a crime against humanity because there are children that are brought up in this system never knowing their father or mother, and statistically more apt to be killed, drug overdose, or put into the for profit system.
Igel
(35,393 posts)Individual blacks have a 23.8% less chance of being shot by police than do individual whites, in Houston. (That prepositional phrase is key; I suspect that isn't true elsewhere, if only because that needs to be true to make the article's averages work out.)
Note that's population size and proportion independent.
Houston also isn't 10% black. It's a bit under 49% white, around 25% black, and with maybe 8% Asian and most of the rest racially mixed. Latinos are about 40% of the population, but that's ethnic and not racial. Most of them are classed as "white."
anigbrowl
(13,889 posts)Fryer has an excellent reputation as an economist and this is a well-written paper. You say yourself you haven't read it and don't want to, and that is basically a position of willful ignorance on your part. Your statistical argument would be laughable if it weren't so depressing. I suspect Dr Fryer understands the problem of discrimination vastly better than you ever will, but unlike you he did not allow his expectations to bias his observations.
psychmommy
(1,739 posts)Whites 63% of the pop
blacks 12% of the pop
hispanic 16% of the pop
So if u add blacks and hispanics up they don't even equal half of the population-so when they start throwing %s around and you look at the differences in population-that in itself is proof of the racism.
We don't know what controls were used. We don't know so very much about this research and that frustrates me when people take stats out of context. But there is no way that all other things being equal that we can compare stats by race if we don't consider the huge differences in size of population. Although my stats are old, we don't know the age of the numbers these gentleman worked with.
Separation
(1,975 posts)They are there at the link if you wish to read them.
psychmommy
(1,739 posts)Nye Bevan
(25,406 posts)Can we conclude that given that men are 50% of the pop but 94% of police shooting victims that there is massive sexism in police shootings?
psychmommy
(1,739 posts)jack_krass
(1,009 posts)psychmommy
(1,739 posts)anigbrowl
(13,889 posts)We do know what controls were used. They are discussed in detail in the paper, to which you have a link in the OP. It took me only 2 minutes to verify the integrity of the datasets he's using, which have also been used in other well-received research. It is dishonest of you to pretend that he didn't show his work. Why would you do that?
psychmommy
(1,739 posts)I understand where the data comes from. That is not explaining what the controls are. i went back through and still am not sure what controls were used. Data is just raw numbers.
Gormy Cuss
(30,884 posts)For example:
Our results have several important caveats. First, all but one dataset was provided by a select group of police departments. It is possible that these departments only supplied the data because they are either enlightened or were not concerned about what the analysis would reveal. In essence, this is equivalent to analyzing labor market discrimination on a set of firms willing to supply a researcher with their Human Resources data! There may be important selection in who was willing to share their data. The Police-Public contact survey partially sidesteps this issue by including a nationally representative sample of civilians, but it does not contain data on officer-involved shootings.
Relatedly, even police departments willing to supply data may contain police officers who present contextual factors at that time of an incident in a biased manner - making it difficult to interpret regression coefficients in the standard way. It is exceedingly difficult to know how prevalent this type of misreporting bias is (Schneider 1977). Accounting for contextual variables recorded by police officers who may have an incentive to distort the truth is problematic. Yet, whether or not we include controls does not alter the basic qualitative conclusions. And, to the extent that there are racial differences in underreporting of non-lethal use of force (and police are more likely to not report force used on blacks), our estimates may be a lower bound. Not reporting officer-involved shootings seems unlikely.
Third, given the inability to randomly assign race, one can never be confident in the direct regression approach when interpreting racial disparities.
Nowhere does he conclude that his study is definitive proof. He looked for differences, didn't find them. The limitations of the inputs as shown above may have had an enormous impact. Further study with more comprehensive data inputs is needed before anyone can state whether there are differences.
yawnmaster
(2,812 posts)psychmommy
(1,739 posts)is stopped 10% of the time and people that represent 12% of the population are stopped 20% of the time. Then they are being stopped at double the rate of the majority. these numbers are not true and only a simplistic way to explain my point. That my friend is racism.
yawnmaster
(2,812 posts)statistics.
LanternWaste
(37,748 posts)After, and only after a thorough peer-review, it, as with all research, will be considered on its methodology and merits. Until then, it's a hypothesis.
Separation
(1,975 posts)uponit7771
(90,378 posts)... arrest and shootings (the arrest could be bias), 3. the conclusion that blacks have weapons drawn on us at a higher rate (a higher rate of drawing weapons wouldn't indicate a lower rate of shootings)
John Poet
(2,510 posts)I hope I will do my best not to do anything that could cause him to shoot. (I hope peeing in my pants isn't a provocation...)
That could possibly account for the 'less shooting' against blacks, as supposed by the data set in this particular study-- (since more of them had guns pointed at them, perhaps those were more careful in their interaction with the police?--just a big "maybe" .
But, the initial impression of "more guns drawn on, but less shot" does seem like contradictory data.
This study is of course, only one set of supposed data. I would like to see more studies of this type in different geographical areas and nationwide, before one could come to any conclusions, same as one might do when judging the accuracy of polling.
However, the facts of individual cases of cops shooting African-Americans are horrific. I can't unsee the video of the cop shooting an unarmed fleeing man in the back umpteen times... no matter what any study tries to tell me, there's a problem here.
uponit7771
(90,378 posts)... to see any more people shot at all.
But damn, I'm sure most blacks don't have cells phones are the only ones who are willing to whip them out when they see some sKrange shit going down.
I still think the bigger issue isn't cops that fuck up totally or just make mistakes, they're human too...
I think the bigger issue is the accountability isn't there... for instance, 2 of the body cams falling off at the same time during the BRLA shooting... OK.. 1 falling off ... maybe... 2 falling off... WHAT?!
That should no doubt raise some questions along with the other actions including confiscating the store owners video tape (which the BRPD still wont release) and letting everyone see that the cops followed the rules.
Yeah, I'd like to see a bigger study on this too
loyalsister
(13,390 posts)that claimed that redlining is a myh.
anigbrowl
(13,889 posts)Thanks for that brilliant insight.
loyalsister
(13,390 posts)The point is that like anyone else, it's possible for scholars to occassionally have biases that influence their analyses.
anigbrowl
(13,889 posts)And since there's a link to the paper in the OP where you can evaluate the author's claims directly, I think it's uncool to just dismiss his opinion rather than point to the specific shortcomings in his study. Maybe I should just stay out of threads where academic subjects are being discussed but it really pisses me off that people on DU make all these reflexive objections without apparently even reading the thing they're criticizing.
loyalsister
(13,390 posts)I'd give the citation, but I don't remember the professor's name. Sometimes experts are wrong or biased. Embracing skepticism is one of the most healthy aspects of academic research.
anigbrowl
(13,889 posts)I think we're on the same page generally but since you had direct access to the study I think you should have challenged it on its own merits instead of just saying 'sometimes experts are wrong.' That's fine if someone is making some hand-wavey claim that 'experts say xyz...' but when you have the actual paper and the detailed methodology available to you for study it's fallacious.
Sorry but I've heard 'experts are often wrong so there' argument so many times from global warming 'skeptics' and most recently in regard to the Brexit thing that I'm sick of it. It's an argument usually advanced by people who have the intellectual capability to analyse the argument but choose not to do so and resort to cheap shots instead.
Mass
(27,315 posts)The results are really different when you talk about the whole population, probably because they only arrest white people who are dangerous.
uponit7771
(90,378 posts)La Lioness Priyanka
(53,866 posts)The office involved shooting data is just bad, for several reasons, many of which they list.
I find the non-lethal force data far more compelling because they are at least several different way they try to triangulate and incident. And here because they are not just using police created reports, they do find sig racial disparities.
It's a working paper, not a peer reviewed one. I wonder when this emerges in peer reviewed form, how different this paper will look.
anigbrowl
(13,889 posts)He's using the best available data sets and he's up front about the limitations thereof. I think most the criticisms of this paper are massively unfair and ignorant. You'd think from the tenor of the commentary here that he was claiming there's no problem, which is far from being the case.
paleotn
(18,015 posts)Sample bias.
anigbrowl
(13,889 posts)You want to critique something, you need to do better than throwing a few buzzwords around. What is this sample bias you claim exists? Did you make the same claim about other studies that use the same dataset? I ask because I happen to be familiar with the datasets the author relied on as I've seen them cited in other papers and studied them myself. As datasets go they're pretty damn good. If it was good enough for the Gelman study why isn't it good enough to use here?
So if you claim there's sample bias, spell out your claim, otherwise I call bullshit.
Response to anigbrowl (Reply #42)
Post removed
anigbrowl
(13,889 posts)And equally obvious that you didn't either. Think for yourself next time instead of working so hard to find ways to insult people.
uponit7771
(90,378 posts)Ilsa
(61,721 posts)Smaller city PD stats. Sophistication of training, available funds, etc, can be different, affecting outcomes.
pinboy3niner
(53,339 posts)is bunk
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10028002019
anigbrowl
(13,889 posts)written by someone who didn't even read Fryer's paper. I know this because the Vox writer says 'oh look, why didn't he try using some of the existing data like [data sources]' when those very data sources are in his paper. The Vox writer basically wrote a refutation of the New York Times article without ever consulting the economics paper on which it was reporting.
So if you had only read the NYT article, then yes the Vox article adds some information that was missing from there. But if (like a sensible person) you looked at the actual study itself, you'd notice immediately that the author already included that information.
The Vox article goes on to claim:
But they didn't. Actually, the information is front and center in the study, further evidence that the Vox writer is arguing with the NYT's coverage of the study and hasn't read the study itself. Incredibly dishonest of both writer and publisher, but it's all about the clicks because most people don't bother to do fact-checking
uponit7771
(90,378 posts)... I've not read any portion of this in the documents.
It just assumes that blacks being arrested or stopped are being done so with no bias.
Also, the other blaring issues is the weapons draw... it would be logical to think the more times a weapon is draw the more times it would be used.
anigbrowl
(13,889 posts)"It just assumes that blacks being arrested or stopped are being done so with no bias."
Complete nonsense. This just tells me you didn't bother to read the study since it says the exact opposite of what you're claiming here - that there is statistically significant bias in the rates at which blacks are stopped by police. Fail.
"Also, the other blaring issues is the weapons draw... it would be logical to think the more times a weapon is draw the more times it would be used."
No it wouldn't. I can think of numerous reasons why that could be the case, ranging from systemic bias in the data to police simply being more willing to threaten black people and black people being practical enough to be aware of this and give in as soon as they realize they're dealing with a uniformed bully.
uponit7771
(90,378 posts)anigbrowl
(13,889 posts)uponit7771
(90,378 posts)... don't see a study on the arrest in the documentation.
anigbrowl
(13,889 posts)You wrote it, own your words. It's not my job to make your argument more convenient for you by ignoring stuff you wrote without thinking. Also, if you 'don't see a study on the arrest in the documentation' then you can't have read the paper terribly closely. In fact, I'm guessing you haven't read it at all, since it discusses the evidence for racial bias in police interactions (including arrests) in considerable detail. The publicly available datasets, which have been used in other well-respected studies, are cited in footnote 4.
uponit7771
(90,378 posts)... and no, there's NO CONCLUSION on the arrest being biased at all in the study... NONE.
It seems like this guy who did this study is an asshole, raising the questions that blacks could have lower IQs than whites.
He's an asshole, I'm done with the NYT for a second... this is a bunk ass'd study
True Earthling
(832 posts)That's the only way the study would be flawed.
There was no assumptions made on the racial bias either way in the raw data.
gollygee
(22,336 posts)If you read, it says that there wasn't a lot of data available to them, and they used what was available. Houston and New York - two very large diverse cities. Those cities are not representative of all of the US. That isn't due to cherry picking. Those were the only two cities that had the data collected as they needed it.
Also, the fact that they are collecting this data could mean that they realize it's a problem and are working on it, which also would make them less representative.
Liberal_Stalwart71
(20,450 posts)should not be championing this flawed research as if it is gospel. That's not what I see. I see a bunch of happy liberal and conservative white people touting these findings and going, "see, racial bias doesn't exist when it comes to cops shooting blacks". There's too many happy with these results as if they are conclusive and representative. They are not--and even the researcher admits this!
1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)group of police departments. It is possible that these departments only supplied the data because
they are either enlightened or were not concerned about what the analysis would reveal. In essence,
this is equivalent to analyzing labor market discrimination on a set of rms willing to supply a
researcher with their Human Resources data! There may be important selection in who was willing
to share their data. The Police-Public contact survey partially sidesteps this issue by including
a nationally representative sample of civilians, but it does not contain data on ocer-involved
shootings.
In other words, the conclusion is drawn from self-selecting, reporting agencies. The authors acknowledge, then ignore, the possibility that the agencies that self-reported did so because they were confident the data did not show a problem. If one considers, and accepts, that possibility, one must consider the corollary proposition: the agencies that withheld the data, did so because they were confident it would show a problem; making any conclusion impossible.
This is troubling, when considering the reports other findings; specifically, that there is evidence of discrimination in all levels of non-lethal force use, even "gun draws" (without discharge). The authors make no attempt to explain this anomaly.
anigbrowl
(13,889 posts)The author (singular, although he gives credit to everyone who assisted with his research) frankly notes the limitations of his data and its impact on his conclusions. If anything, this is a good argument for why we should be switching ot mandatory reporting of all officer-involved shootings rather than the voluntary system that is being put into place at present and which goes live next year.
I don't think it's fair to call this out as a problem with the study when he is very up front about it. His data sources are good (nobody questioned them when those same datasets revealed the large systemic bias in stop-and-frisk contacts a few years ago) and he's honest about the limitations of it. What more do you want? It's unscientific to abandon an investigation just because it turns up a different conclusion from the one you expected.
1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)accepting his conclusion that because he acknowledges that his data set may be flawed. The flaw is what makes his conclusion suspect.
No, what is unscientific is drawing conclusions from admittedly flawed data sets; particularly, when the results diverge dramatically from what is expected, without explaining the divergence. The responsible scientific response is to NOT draw a conclusion; but rather, state what you found and clearly explain that you cannot draw a conclusion because you cannot explain the divergence.
anigbrowl
(13,889 posts)By 'drawing a conclusion' I don't mean 'presenting your findings as the truth.' He's very frank about the deficiencies and what he can and cannot explain, and he's limited himself to saying that the available data do not show the bias he anticipated finding. Just because you can't explain something doesn't mean you shouldn't talk about it? indeed the very uncertainty thrown up here might be sufficient motivation for lawmakers to invest more money in studying the subject more carefully.
Yeah, it's bad that many in the media will run articles saying 'study shows the problem doesn't exist' when the study makes no such claim. But that's the media's fault, not the researcher's. And the media does that with everything - the vast majority of articles on science or law in the daily press are so inaccurate as to be useless at best and misleading at worst.
I'm not having a go at you, but it really chaps my ass that someone does a bunch of hard work on researching something and then people dismiss it on ridiculous grounds, like one poster above suggesting it must be the work of a KKK sympathizer. DU should not be a place where anti-intellectualism is celebrated.
1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)Except, he IS making that exact claim; both, in the abstract:
shootings we find no racial differences in either the raw data or when contextual
factors are taken into account.
and the conclusion:
shootings { we are unable to detect any racial dierences in either the raw data or when accounting
for controls.
Earlier you wrote:
And, I should have responded: "True ... But it is equally unscientific to report out (publish) findings that you suspect may be flawed (whether one discloses the basis of the doubt, or not). That is not anti-intellectualism celebrated, it is what responsible researchers do.
anigbrowl
(13,889 posts)He's claiming what he found in the available data, not that the problem doesn't exist.
I do disagree with you that it's wrong to report findings when you know your dataset might have shortcomings as long as you are honest about it. If you don't then nobody is likely to invest money in producing a better dataset. It's obvious that he's thought long and hard about the issue and looked for a wide variety of explanatory factors. Just because the outcome is surprising doesn't mean it's wrong; maybe there's an explanation that we haven't thought of yet, maybe the data we have at present is inadequate or has systemic bias in its compilation, maybe police are in fact a bit more careful with pulling the trigger than the way they are strereotyped (and I've had comments hidden for anti-police bias so I'm reluctant to include that possibility...but it's be dishonest if I didn't).
In other branches of science you try to clean your data up as much as possible but having done that you go ahead and publish your surprising result. That's happening in the physics world right now, where scientists are trying to verify or refute the apparent detection of a new subatomic particle that is not predicted by the Standard Model of physics and thus has the potential to upset the whole applecart. The scientists who first noticed it checked and rechecked their result and finally published a paper along the lines of 'this is probably an equipment failure but we haven't managed to find one, and if it is true then it would be a big deal.' Then scientists at a different facility published a paper along the lines of 'yeah we found that too using totally different equipment so that's interesting.' And now they're working on doing experiments at the Large Hadron Collider that should give a definitive answer.
If the original scientists hadn't published their inexplicable result then the matter would go un-investigated because it was so far outside what people expected. Same thing here.
1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)Liberal_Stalwart71
(20,450 posts)Last edited Wed Jul 13, 2016, 02:24 PM - Edit history (1)
statistical shortcomings with his own research, then why run with the results? The results should be accept with caution. They are not to be conclusive or generalizable.
Again, people are creaming their pants over these results---anything to prove that black people don't face racial bias, racism or discrimination. We deserve to be harassed, stopped, assaulted, even killed. That's why people are going out of their way to defend this flawed "scientific" study. It makes their white guilt less burdensome.
1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)Again ... Could you imagine the professional ridicule an investigator would, rightfully, receive if she/he concluded there was no discrimination in residential mortgages, where his data set was drawn from self-reporting lenders with robust anti-discrimination controls?
In this case, he declares no discrimination in use of deadly force, , while acknowledging his data set is self-reporting agencies.
Better he just not report out.
Liberal_Stalwart71
(20,450 posts)as conclusive. While I think he covered himself by pointing out the logical inconsistencies and the shortcomings of his methodological approach, the fact that these questionable findings are being touted across media as indisputable facts is disturbing. It goes to further prove that statistics can be exploited for political opportunity. Not suggesting that this is what the researcher did, but I am suggesting that the NYTimes and the other media outlets who are creaming their pants over this opportunity to denounce racial bias claims are being disingenuous, possibly even irresponsible with the research.
uponit7771
(90,378 posts)... just assumes the arrest are not biased at all. From the arrest encounters they assume there's of course going to be more chances of shootings... very lose construction of logic.
2. 3 of the 4 states studied are the more racially diverse in the union, its not a national study with less diverse areas...
I don't know why this was posted by the NYT with these glaring defects
anigbrowl
(13,889 posts)Not only does the study acknowledge the existence of bias, some of that discussion was copied into the text of OP so there is no excuse for you having missed it. Stop misleading people.
True Earthling
(832 posts)There's no way to determine that from raw statistics.
That's why you look at the entirety of the data to see if there is a statistical difference between black, white and Hispanic encounters.
The data tells you if there is bias.
gollygee
(22,336 posts)I'll copy one of the problems the article finds with this study below, but read the whole thing.
http://www.vox.com/2016/7/11/12149468/racism-police-shootings-data
It focused on what happens when police encounters occur, not how often they happen. Racial differences in how often police-civilian interactions occur reflect greater structural problems in society.
In other words, Fryer and company found that there werent big racial disparities in how often black and white suspects whod already been stopped by police were killed. But they deliberately avoided the question of whether black citizens are more likely to be stopped to begin with (they are) and whether theyre more likely to be stopped without cause (yup).
Avoiding those issues makes sense for the question Fryer was trying to answer. He wanted to know what happens between the moment a police officer stops someone and the moment he pulls the trigger and how those sequences of events vary by race.
But when people talk about racial disparities in police use of force, theyre usually not asking, Is a black American stopped by police treated the same as a white American in the same circumstances? Theyre making a broader critique of the greater structural problems in society in general and the criminal justice system in particular. Theyre saying that black Americans are more likely to get stopped by police, which makes them more likely to get killed.
anigbrowl
(13,889 posts)The Vox writer argued with what he read in the NYT but he very obviously never read the original study. It actually uses the same data he cites in an attempt to refute it.
gollygee
(22,336 posts)Response to gollygee (Reply #84)
Post removed
matt819
(10,749 posts)More knowledgeable people than I gave commented elsewhere that there are flaws with the study and I believe viewed that it has not yet been peer reviewed.
My own sense is that there is not enough data to draw the conclusion that these findings can be more broadly applied to the US overall. They may apply to Houston and the other areas covered by the data.
The study's author acknowledges these flaws and has admitted that he was surprised by the results. And that's fine. I think it points to the larger problem that there is no central repository for police shootings that would allow for a more comprehensive analysis.
i would be interested to see how the study changes upon peer review.
Gabi Hayes
(28,795 posts)mr_liberal
(1,017 posts)Its kind of amazing it was allowed to be posted here but not there.
anigbrowl
(13,889 posts)There might be more, I just went with the top 5 results which were all from Reddit. If you're going to make claims like that you should back them up with some evidence. Sometimes I feel like I'm the only person on DU who bothers to fact-check anything before posting.
https://www.reddit.com/r/news/comments/4sgb03/a_recent_study_by_roland_g_fryer_jr_the_youngest/
https://www.reddit.com/r/news/comments/4sasct/surprising_new_evidence_shows_bias_in_police_use/
https://www.reddit.com/r/Conservative/comments/4sepbf/harvard_study_finds_no_racial_bias_in_police/
https://www.reddit.com/r/The_Donald/comments/4sgtqr/morning_joe_gets_woke_police_bias_study_shows/
https://www.reddit.com/r/Economics/comments/4sb0g0/surprising_harvard_study_finds_lack_of_racial/
These are the results as Google served them up, I am not responsible for the fact that two of them go to conservative-supporting pages there.
mr_liberal
(1,017 posts)Although Im not positive they were removed, it looks like they were.
Thats what I meant. I know it was allowed on subs like /The_Donald, but I dont think it was on main subs like r/news. r/news is notorious for the censorship of things that arent politically correct. I tried to post it there and it just didnt show up. I could see it on my user page, but it didnt show up for others to vote on. It was not something that was already posted either, it was a new article.
anigbrowl
(13,889 posts)That bit about 'analysis/opinion' is boilerplate on r/news, it's on every /r/news page. Look: https://www.reddit.com/r/news/
mr_liberal
(1,017 posts)Those articles were submitted to r/news and then tagged with that by mods. Im sure they were pulled then because analysis/opinion articles arent allowed on r/news. I looked at all the articles on r/news in the past day or so and those articles arent there. There are no articles with that tag. Whats interesting too is if you search for articles with "study" in the headline there are a lot that show up for that sub.
anigbrowl
(13,889 posts)Liberal_Stalwart71
(20,450 posts)SalviaBlue
(2,918 posts)Dan
(3,590 posts)One has to look at the data.
In the old days when 'someone' was killed - it was possible that the police might have said that the victim killed himself - even tho' he/she might have been shot twice in the back of the head, and hung from a tree. So, this would be a suicide.... So forget the information given, look at the data and then perform some type of statistical validation on the data provided by the various law enforcement agencies...
My thoughts...
ContinentalOp
(5,356 posts)20 unarmed black people have been shot and killed by the police so far this year. 23 unarmed white people were shot and killed by police, and 4 of those were women and children murdered by their cop husbands/fathers. So removing those murders, there have been an almost equal number of unarmed black and white people shot and killed by police this year, despite the fact that there are over five times as many white people in the US.
http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2015/jun/01/the-counted-police-killings-us-database
Night Watchman
(743 posts)yuiyoshida
(41,874 posts)laserhaas
(7,805 posts)Of the highest stinking order
On the Road
(20,783 posts)the party of evidence and reason for quite awhile. That appears to be changing.
ismnotwasm
(42,030 posts)But no more likely to shoot them?
Huh.
Liberal_Stalwart71
(20,450 posts)Doesn't make logical sense you to.
Doesn't make logical sense to me.
Doesn't even make logical sense to the researcher himself who admits this.
ismnotwasm
(42,030 posts)But it doesn't pass the smell test at all.
marle35
(172 posts)Cops have more encounters black men who aren't a great threat. They are drawing their guns and are meeting less resistance from the black people they target? They only draw guns on white people who are truly dangerous and so actually need to fire at them?
Not sure if that makes sense, but there may be reasons that are invisible in the data.
Glassunion
(10,201 posts)So many caveats in the report to make such a stretch at their conclusion.
Why cherry-pick data (cities, encounter types, etc...) like that?
If you simply take national numbers of police homicides, it paints quite a different picture.
The Washington Post has been keeping track of every police shooting homicide for the past couple of years, and demographically speaking, it is more probable that a black man is likely to be shot and killed by the police than white men.
990 - Total People Shot Dead by the Police in 2015.
948 - Were male (95.75% of all shooting deaths)
468 - Were white men (47.27% of all shooting deaths)
248 - Were black men (25.05% of all shooting deaths)
98 - Total were unarmed (9.89% of all shooting deaths)
32 - Were unarmed white men (32.65% of all Unarmed shooting deaths)
38 - Were unarmed black men (38.77% of all Unarmed shooting deaths)
36.87% - Percent of the population in the US that is White and Male
6.03% - Percent of the population in the US that is Black and Male
So, as you can see, black men are disproportionately represented in police homicides. As only 6% of the total population, suffers 25% of police homicides.
Basically, if all things were equal, Black Males should have only been represented by about 59 shooting deaths, and 6 Unarmed shooting deaths, if based on their relative total populations in the US.
That said, the data from WaPo does not directly indicate or imply bias. It does however indicate probability.
Liberal_Stalwart71
(20,450 posts)Skittles
(153,321 posts)"if all things were equal", women would be OVER HALF THE SHOOTINGS - please tell me what accounts for THAT
Glassunion
(10,201 posts)No one should be represented in the data tat WaPo has collected. However, Males account for the vast majority of police homicides, and if you consider rates, Hispanics and Black men are far overrepresented.
blm
(113,141 posts)that prove their submitted narrative is actually an INCORRECT summary.