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Estimating the Potential Impact of Failure of the Fukushima Daiichi Unit 4 Spent Fuel Pool
From http://www.washingtonsblog.com:
Dr. Paul Gailey sent me the following email:
Because so many claims were flying around with regard to Fukushima’s spent fuel pool number 4, we performed a technical analysis of the situation to gain some perspective on the parameters of the crisis. If you are interested, there is a link to our Special Report on Fukushima at www.holophi.ch/blog/ , along with some overview perspectives in our April newsletter also at that web address.
Our analysis is done in a way that is difficult to dispute because we based everything on published scientific reports and measurements and performed the analysis in a straightforward way. While the many anecdotal radiation measurements and reports by members of the public may very well be accurate and important, we felt there was a need for a scientifically defensible analysis that did not depend on public measurements, which are difficult to substantiate and can be easily criticized.
Dr. Gailey holds advanced degrees in physics and engineering. An associate professor of Physics and Astronomy, Ohio University (with joint appointments in Departments of Biology and Mathematics), Dr. Gailey is also a member of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences Committee on Global Science and Technology, the Director of Electric and Magnetic Fields Health Effects at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, and a researcher in health effects, instrumentation, computational models, and economic impact of electric and magnetic field effects for the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. He is a biophysicist (the type of scientist – along with medical doctors and a few others – who can be most expert in the effect of radiation on health).
Gailey’s new report notes that the risk of a fire in fuel pool number 4 is real, and that the risks of contamination are so severe that an international effort is required.
The report follows (original pdf version here).
Estimating the Potential Impact of Failure of the Fukushima Daiichi Unit 4 Spent Fuel Pool
A Local Problem for Japan or a Global Mega Crisis?
Paul C. Gailey, Ph.D. , President& CEO, Holophi CHAG
www.holophi.ch
Abstract
Extreme opinions are being voiced about the risk of global catastrophe resulting from a possible collapse of the Fukushima Daiichi unit 4 spent fuel pool. These claims are appearing mostly among the public through internet media and other non-official channels. Officials sources remain largely mute on the subject or downplay the risks. This report provides an approximate bounding of the risks using available data. The results of this analysis suggest that a nominal release of 10% of the SFP 4 inventory of cesium and strontium would represent 3-10 times the March 2011 release amounts, substantially increasing risk levels in Japan and impacting marine life. Release of 100% of the SFP 4 inventory, or 30-100 times the March 2011 release amounts, could result in significant global impact.
http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2012/06/estimating-the-potential-impact-of-failure-of-the-fukushima-daiichi-unit-4-spent-fuel-pool.html
Because so many claims were flying around with regard to Fukushima’s spent fuel pool number 4, we performed a technical analysis of the situation to gain some perspective on the parameters of the crisis. If you are interested, there is a link to our Special Report on Fukushima at www.holophi.ch/blog/ , along with some overview perspectives in our April newsletter also at that web address.
Our analysis is done in a way that is difficult to dispute because we based everything on published scientific reports and measurements and performed the analysis in a straightforward way. While the many anecdotal radiation measurements and reports by members of the public may very well be accurate and important, we felt there was a need for a scientifically defensible analysis that did not depend on public measurements, which are difficult to substantiate and can be easily criticized.
Dr. Gailey holds advanced degrees in physics and engineering. An associate professor of Physics and Astronomy, Ohio University (with joint appointments in Departments of Biology and Mathematics), Dr. Gailey is also a member of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences Committee on Global Science and Technology, the Director of Electric and Magnetic Fields Health Effects at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, and a researcher in health effects, instrumentation, computational models, and economic impact of electric and magnetic field effects for the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. He is a biophysicist (the type of scientist – along with medical doctors and a few others – who can be most expert in the effect of radiation on health).
Gailey’s new report notes that the risk of a fire in fuel pool number 4 is real, and that the risks of contamination are so severe that an international effort is required.
The report follows (original pdf version here).
Estimating the Potential Impact of Failure of the Fukushima Daiichi Unit 4 Spent Fuel Pool
A Local Problem for Japan or a Global Mega Crisis?
Paul C. Gailey, Ph.D. , President& CEO, Holophi CHAG
www.holophi.ch
Abstract
Extreme opinions are being voiced about the risk of global catastrophe resulting from a possible collapse of the Fukushima Daiichi unit 4 spent fuel pool. These claims are appearing mostly among the public through internet media and other non-official channels. Officials sources remain largely mute on the subject or downplay the risks. This report provides an approximate bounding of the risks using available data. The results of this analysis suggest that a nominal release of 10% of the SFP 4 inventory of cesium and strontium would represent 3-10 times the March 2011 release amounts, substantially increasing risk levels in Japan and impacting marine life. Release of 100% of the SFP 4 inventory, or 30-100 times the March 2011 release amounts, could result in significant global impact.
http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2012/06/estimating-the-potential-impact-of-failure-of-the-fukushima-daiichi-unit-4-spent-fuel-pool.html
10 replies
= new reply since forum marked as read
= new reply since forum marked as read
THE COMMON BREATH OF HUMANITY:
Take a deep breath, that deep breath you just took contains thousands and thousands of nitrogen atoms, a single breath weights a lil more than 3/4 of a gram, 600 breaths = i pound. air is 78% nitrogen 21% oxygen an small traces of carbon dioxide an & gas's. It's estimated around 24 thousand million million, million nitrogen atoms in a single breath, also theirs 10 million million more nitrogen atoms as there are people and more than 100 billion times more nitrogen atoms as stars in our galaxy. When you exhale those 24 thousand million million, million nitrogen atoms they mingle with other nitrogen & oxygen atoms in the atmosphere and in the course of time they becomes mixed together by the winds an such. Every person on this earth will be using some of those nitrogen atoms that you just exhaled. You share you breath with all the people of the earth, for the fact that there are 3 times as many nitrogen atoms in one breath as there are breaths in the whole atmosphere, so that also means every breath you take in right now, right this moment contains probably 3 atoms shared by every man, woman an child on this planet, also that means that 3 atoms out of 24 thousand million million million atoms, 3 of those atoms where breath in by man, woman and child not only in this period, but every other period in history, it means the breath your breathing in now has been shared by every person who ever lived on this planet, the air your breathing in now 3 atoms probably where breath in by your great, great grandparents, or maybe even Ramsey the third king of Egypt, or any other human being you care to name, that s the sharing of humanities breath. does this helps. justgena
http://wiki.answers.com/Q/Where_does_the_oxygen_go_when_you_breath
Of course it doesn't help, since justgena makes spelling errors which proves she is insane, but it's a nice piece of writing. There is no jet stream. Everything is under control. Go back to sleep. Okay, just going along with you, did you leave out your sarcasm simile?
Here's one for us both:
BTW, we just might be screwed.
And there is no place to hide.
Take a deep breath, that deep breath you just took contains thousands and thousands of nitrogen atoms, a single breath weights a lil more than 3/4 of a gram, 600 breaths = i pound. air is 78% nitrogen 21% oxygen an small traces of carbon dioxide an & gas's. It's estimated around 24 thousand million million, million nitrogen atoms in a single breath, also theirs 10 million million more nitrogen atoms as there are people and more than 100 billion times more nitrogen atoms as stars in our galaxy. When you exhale those 24 thousand million million, million nitrogen atoms they mingle with other nitrogen & oxygen atoms in the atmosphere and in the course of time they becomes mixed together by the winds an such. Every person on this earth will be using some of those nitrogen atoms that you just exhaled. You share you breath with all the people of the earth, for the fact that there are 3 times as many nitrogen atoms in one breath as there are breaths in the whole atmosphere, so that also means every breath you take in right now, right this moment contains probably 3 atoms shared by every man, woman an child on this planet, also that means that 3 atoms out of 24 thousand million million million atoms, 3 of those atoms where breath in by man, woman and child not only in this period, but every other period in history, it means the breath your breathing in now has been shared by every person who ever lived on this planet, the air your breathing in now 3 atoms probably where breath in by your great, great grandparents, or maybe even Ramsey the third king of Egypt, or any other human being you care to name, that s the sharing of humanities breath. does this helps. justgena
http://wiki.answers.com/Q/Where_does_the_oxygen_go_when_you_breath
Of course it doesn't help, since justgena makes spelling errors which proves she is insane, but it's a nice piece of writing. There is no jet stream. Everything is under control. Go back to sleep. Okay, just going along with you, did you leave out your sarcasm simile?
Here's one for us both:
BTW, we just might be screwed.
And there is no place to hide.
