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busterbrown

(8,515 posts)
Tue Jul 26, 2016, 12:32 AM Jul 2016

Yea, I get the Convention Bounce thing but..

This is different. The Lunatic should never have gotten a bounce, he’s a danger to to the USA and a danger to the world.. The fact that he got a bump and now to make matters worse Nate Silver has pissed fear all over the polls, I’ve got to be honest...

This election looks as though it will be very tight and therefore if every Dem. doesn’t do his or her part in working as hard as they can to rid ourselves of this peril, then we deserve what we probably will get,.

Remember how Brexit turned out... All the remorse and regrets..., well I hope Britain learned their lesson.
But there is a big difference.... Brexit has lead to an uncertain future for the people Great Britain, mostly financial... However if Trump wins the election it could and probably will bring peril into the world as we never could have imagined..

16 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
Yea, I get the Convention Bounce thing but.. (Original Post) busterbrown Jul 2016 OP
Someone posted over a half dozen Charles Bukowski Jul 2016 #1
Charles... I’ve been working all day.. busterbrown Jul 2016 #3
Unfortunately Charles is mistaken. woolldog Jul 2016 #6
Sigh... Charles Bukowski Jul 2016 #9
welp.. I’m sticking with ya charles, busterbrown Jul 2016 #10
No. woolldog Jul 2016 #12
I stand corrected Charles Bukowski Jul 2016 #15
Where is the link to this "half dozen"? former9thward Jul 2016 #7
RealClearPolitics shows 4 polls today. Trump leads in 3 RAFisher Jul 2016 #11
I don't think he got a bounce, there's a thread on this and most of the polls show HRC ahead... uponit7771 Jul 2016 #2
Nate silver reported a bounce.. So did CNN.. busterbrown Jul 2016 #4
538 hasn't aggregated the polls that came out today... I'll wait to Wednesday uponit7771 Jul 2016 #8
not enough people watched the GOP convention pstokely Jul 2016 #5
You know he is a threat, I know it and almost everyone on this board knows it OhioBlue Jul 2016 #13
bounce vadermike Jul 2016 #14
I remember when convention bouces were something in double digits... HereSince1628 Jul 2016 #16
 

Charles Bukowski

(1,132 posts)
1. Someone posted over a half dozen
Tue Jul 26, 2016, 12:36 AM
Jul 2016

newly released polls and Trump still trailed in the majority of them.

That's pitiful.

Considering Day One of the DNC >>>> Day One of the RNC, Mrs. Clinton's bounce should be higher.

busterbrown

(8,515 posts)
3. Charles... I’ve been working all day..
Tue Jul 26, 2016, 12:47 AM
Jul 2016

Friends and Brother hard as nails ant-trump have been keeping me up on the day’s events..
I’ve been depressed all day regarding these polls showing a Trump bounce..

Thanks for the bit of good news... took my temp down 3 degrees.

 

woolldog

(8,791 posts)
6. Unfortunately Charles is mistaken.
Tue Jul 26, 2016, 12:50 AM
Jul 2016

Notice how he didn't link anything in support of his statement.

busterbrown

(8,515 posts)
10. welp.. I’m sticking with ya charles,
Tue Jul 26, 2016, 01:27 AM
Jul 2016

if we win i”m sending ya a bottle... Seriously..

Im usually a pretty optimistic guy.. But I got down this am, went to work, im home tired and glad for your posts.

 

Charles Bukowski

(1,132 posts)
15. I stand corrected
Tue Jul 26, 2016, 03:19 AM
Jul 2016

Still, his RCP bounce thus far is less than 3 points. It will most likely top out at 5 (roughly what Romney got) and then will quickly be erased by Hillary's bounce.

Concern level: 3/10

RAFisher

(466 posts)
11. RealClearPolitics shows 4 polls today. Trump leads in 3
Tue Jul 26, 2016, 01:32 AM
Jul 2016

CBS - Trump +1%
CNN - Trump +3%
YouGov - Clinton +5%
LA Times/USC - Trump +4%

The other polls you cite are pre-convention and I don't know how useful that is.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html#polls

uponit7771

(90,378 posts)
2. I don't think he got a bounce, there's a thread on this and most of the polls show HRC ahead...
Tue Jul 26, 2016, 12:43 AM
Jul 2016

... nationally and one poll showing ahead in OHIO with spread vote (not head to head)

I'll wait but I don't see a bump seeing all the polling that has come in so far

OhioBlue

(5,126 posts)
13. You know he is a threat, I know it and almost everyone on this board knows it
Tue Jul 26, 2016, 01:42 AM
Jul 2016

But not everyone knows it. I've been shocked at some of my friends that are supporting Trump. This election IMO - is going to be completely unpredictable. I do think Trump is a master at branding and manipulation. I don't doubt that he had a hand in the timing of the leaked DNC emails. This could be a very close election and an October surprise could change everything. It could also be a landslide for Clinton. We don't know, so you are correct, all we can control is the things we can control which means working to turn out voters for Clinton/Kaine and downticket Dems.

vadermike

(1,417 posts)
14. bounce
Tue Jul 26, 2016, 01:57 AM
Jul 2016

He unfortunately got one... what do you guys think Hillary will get out of this convention.. i think 6 or more points would be pretty good!

HereSince1628

(36,063 posts)
16. I remember when convention bouces were something in double digits...
Tue Jul 26, 2016, 07:15 AM
Jul 2016

I know the FEAR TRUMP meme is running all over this website, but .2% lead in the running avg of national polls at RCP half a week after his nominating convention doesn't look terribly imperiling.

The gap in the running average which was only around 3 percent has closed, but it wasn't much of a gap to begin with.

A lot of that is about popular support to his opposition to TransPacific Trade Pact. Opposition to TTP has widely shared popularity in both party bases and among independents.

The increased marketing the democratic convention will give to HRC's popular issues is very likely to raise her numbers and they may move a lot, because the emphasis on FEAR TRUMP has left many Dems unable to innumerate where HRC is coming from.

The convention, as it always does, will educate and convince many Americans that the nominee's proposed presidential mission is something they support.

The polls are very likely to move around quite a bit between now and Nov. if for no reason other than his often racially baited America-first know-nothingism regularly offends even members of the party that has nominated him.

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