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FarCenter

(19,429 posts)
Wed Jun 13, 2012, 05:20 PM Jun 2012

Towards a new Arab cultural revolution

By Alastair Crooke

The "Awakening" is taking a turn, very different to the excitement and promise with which it was hailed at the outset. Sired from an initial, broad popular impulse, it is becoming increasingly understood, and feared, as a nascent counter-revolutionary "cultural revolution" - a re-culturation of the region in the direction of a prescriptive canon that is emptying out those early high expectations, and which makes a mockery of the West's continuing characterization of it as somehow a project of reform and democracy.

Instead of yielding hope, its subsequent metamorphosis now gives rise to a mood of uncertainty and desperation - particularly among what are increasingly termed "'the minorities" - the non-Sunnis, in other words. This chill of apprehension takes its grip from certain Gulf States' fervor for the restitution of a Sunni regional primacy - even, perhaps, of hegemony - to be attained through fanning rising Sunni militancy [1] and Salafist acculturation.

At least seven Middle Eastern states are now beset by bitter, and increasingly violent, power struggles; states such as Lebanon, Egypt, Libya, Bahrain and Yemen are dismantling. Western states no longer trouble to conceal their aim of regime change in Syria, following Libya and the "non-regime-change" change in Yemen.

The region already exists in a state of low intensity war: Saudi Arabia and Qatar, bolstered by Turkey and the West, seem ready to stop at nothing to violently overthrow a fellow Arab head of state, President Bashar al-Assad - and to do whatever they can to hurt Iran.

Iranians increasingly interpret Saudi Arabia's mood as a hungering for war; and Gulf statements do often have that edge of hysteria and aggression: a recent editorial in the Saudi-owned al-Hayat stated: "The climate in the GCC [Gulf Cooperation Council] indicates that matters are heading towards a GCC-Iranian-Russian confrontation on Syrian soil, similar to what took place in Afghanistan during the Cold War. To be sure, the decision has been taken to overthrow the Syrian regime, seeing as it is vital to the regional influence and hegemony of the Islamic Republic of Iran." [2]


http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/NF13Ak03.html
6 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Scootaloo

(25,699 posts)
1. Well, of course Saudi Arabia is hungry for war
Wed Jun 13, 2012, 05:30 PM
Jun 2012

At no point in that country's history have their wars actually involved the Saudis fighting. Saudi involvement in the wars against Israel largely amounted to funding Jordanian military ventures. Saudi Arabia's involvement in the Iran-Iraq war was in moneying Saddam - and then having the US protect Saudi shipping. It was much the same in the Gulf War, when the Saudis declared war on Iraq - and then handed the entire thing over to the US to do the actual fighting for them.

The Saudi military is a joke; the entire air force is laughable because the only people allowed to be pilots are members of the royal family; the Saudis have more fighter jets than they do fighter pilots. And they keep buying more. The Saudi army is similarly tiny, and its main course of training is harassing women who aren't wearing state-approved socks.

Saudi Arabia wants war with Iran. More specifically they want the US to fight Iran. Incidentally so does Israel. Given that the US's two "allies" in the region are clamoring for "Let's you and him fight!" and the US presidency might be in danger of shifting to a guy who will be as easy to manipulate as modeling clay, it's not looking like a great time to be living in Iran.

 

riderinthestorm

(23,272 posts)
2. Wow! One of the MOST important articles on Syria out there right now. Must read!
Wed Jun 13, 2012, 05:56 PM
Jun 2012

I really hope anyone who really wants to be educated about what's going on in Syria will take the few moments to read this.

Here's another snip:

Salafism both of the Saudi, and the of radical, orientation are being fired-up in Yemen, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon [8], Egypt, north Africa, the Sahara, Nigeria, and the horn of Africa. No wonder Russia is concerned: Central Asia [9] is unlikely to prove immune either. Its leaders do recall, only too well, the impact on Russia's backyard, of that earlier "stirring" associated with Afghanistan.

They find it difficult to understand how Europeans can again "look aside" from what is occurring for the transient domestic "pleasures" of been seen to "take-down dictators", when this new radical stirring across the Middle East, Africa and tentatively Central Asia, is happening right on Europe's own doorstep - just across the Mediterranean.

snip

Syria has become the crucible of these external coercions; with events in Syria [12] being defined by this hugely potent deployed Gulf power for the purpose of building their "new Middle East"; rather than being defined by some over-simplistic narrative of reform versus repression, which sheers Syria away from its all-important context.

Many Syrians see the struggle now not so much as one of reform - though all Syrians want that - but now as a more primordial, elemental fight to preserve the notion of Syria itself, a deep-rooted self-identity amidst fears that touch on the most sensitive, inflamed nerves within the Islamic world. Not surprisingly for many, security now trumps reform.



A huge K&R.

pennylane100

(3,425 posts)
3. I started reading the article but was puzzled by a statement the author made about Syria.
Wed Jun 13, 2012, 06:49 PM
Jun 2012

"The region already exists in a state of low intensity war: Saudi Arabia and Qatar, bolstered by Turkey and the West, seem ready to stop at nothing to violently overthrow a fellow Arab head of state, President Bashar al-Assad - and to do whatever they can to hurt Iran."

I have two questions, Isn't Assad the person responsible for most of the violence in Syria and what is our country's role in his ouster. It would seem like a good ideal for him to leave office but I do not expect anyone better will take his place.

I plan on reading the whole article but any context would help.

 

riderinthestorm

(23,272 posts)
4. The area is flooded with outside actors working thru proxies. Its impossible to say who's bloodier
Wed Jun 13, 2012, 07:42 PM
Jun 2012

That's a huge part of the problem.

Its not clear at all that the region would be better served with Assad gone. A good deal of his own people really do support him. The (Shia) Iranian position is only hardening as this sectarian civil war between Shia and Sunni Islam grows - the overthrow or assassination of (Shia) Assad will only make them more ferocious. Iran has already threatened Israel is Assad is harmed or removed - that won't end well.

We are providing support and arms to the Saudi and Qatar elements (the Salafists/Sunnis) who are the "rebels". The Sunni/Salafist rebels (who are also an ill-defined group) appear to be trying to make this conflict look like an Arab Spring type of revolution. Its not. Far from it. Its a crucial nexus of religious sectarianism bordering Israel.

pennylane100

(3,425 posts)
5. Thanks for the info.
Wed Jun 13, 2012, 08:28 PM
Jun 2012

I did not realize that Assad was Shia in a Sunni country. I also noted after doing a little googling that Assad's father and Saddam Hussein were both members of the Ba'ath Party.

 

UnrepentantLiberal

(11,700 posts)
6. The article's author is hardly a neutral observer.
Thu Jun 14, 2012, 04:26 AM
Jun 2012
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alastair_Crooke

Alastair Crooke

Alastair Crooke (born 1950) is a British diplomat, the founder and director of the Conflicts Forum, an organisation that advocates for engagement between political Islam and the West. [1] Previously he was a ranking figure in both British intelligence (MI6) and European Union diplomacy. [2]

Crooke was a Middle East advisor to Javier Solana, High Representative for Common Foreign and Security Policy of the European Union (CFSP) from 1997 to 2003, facilitated a number of de-escalations of violence and military withdrawals in the Palestinian Territories with Islamist movements from 2000 to 2003 and was involved in the diplomatic efforts in the Siege of the Church of the Nativity in Bethlehem. [2][3] He was a member of the Mitchell Committee into the causes of the Second Intifada in 2000. [2][3] He held clandestine meetings with the Hamas leadership in June 2002. He is an active advocate of engagement with Hamas to whom he referred as "Resistants or Resistance Fighters".

Crooke studied at the University of St Andrews (1968–1972), from which he obtained an MA in Politics and Economics. His book Resistance: The Essence of the Islamist Revolution, provides background on what he calls the "Islamist Revolution" in the Middle East, helping to offer strategic insights into the origins and logic of Islamist groups which have adopted military resistance as a tactic, including Hamas and Hizbollah. Tracing the essence of the Islamist Revolution from its origins in Egypt, through Najaf, Lebanon, Iran and the Iranian Revolution up to the present day, unlocking some of the thorniest issues surrounding stability in the current Middle East landscape.
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