the Cruz amendment would make health care plans garbage. Think of every other product in Walmart that is what insurance would become.

not defending the cruz amendment. However, if people are naive enough to pay for essentially worthless coverage, whose fault is that. I used the word naive sparingly, I would have used a much harsher term, but the fact is many people don't appreciate the details until reality bites, and sometimes that is the only way they learn.

Also, based on the OP it isn't clear if the mandate is part of it. If the mandate is NOT part of it, then the premiums will go up even higher, and more people will be conned in to buying the worthless insurance option under the Cruz amendment, and some will dearly pay the price for that.

I agree with that part of your analysis. However, as the OP stated, if they increase the subsidies, which I assume means they move it back up to 400% above the poverty level, from the 300% they initially proposed, put back the expanded Medicaid, those two items might very well convince those so-called moderate republicans to vote for it.

Of course there are a lot of details missing from the OP.

1. What is the pre-existing condition criteria and costs for that are not mentioned?
2. Is there still a mandate?
3. What are the criteria for the subsides?
4. Is Birth Control covered, plus other coverage affecting the health of women?
5. What isn't clarified is exactly what differences are between this new republican provision and the ACA, and until that is outlined, it will be very difficult to do an analysis?

There are real questions that if they add back the expanded Medicaid, increase the subsidies, and leave the wealthy tax intact that those even more extreme republicans may have a problem with the changes outlined in the OP

More likely this is going to be a smoke and mirrors facade, and we cannot count on the media to expose that, but will need to do it ourselves, the Congressional Democrats.

as they count toward being insured (if they get sick and want to bump up to better policies later) leaving the old and sick to buy the better policies. That will lead to a death spiral on the good policies making premiums increase, leading to only sicker people buying, rinse and repeat.

When I was 23, I was uninsured and didn't have a care in the world. I didn't get insurance until my first employer required that I select a medical plan at literally no cost to me.

If a young person has a choice of a plan that cost $400 per month and one that cost $600 per month but offers full coverage with no expense caps on medical treatment costs, guess which plan the young person choses if the money comes out of his or her pocket?

Abortion, especially if the woman has a policy with subsidies? God help us if two cents goes toward ending a dangerous or tragic pregnancy.