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VA results thread (Original Post) Takket Nov 2017 OP
/ Matthew28 Nov 2017 #1
Were doomed! Its all over! Omg!!! AAIIIIEEEEEEE!!!!!! Roland99 Nov 2017 #2
/ Matthew28 Nov 2017 #3
Time for Harry Caray NOT Harakiri Stallion Nov 2017 #4
Exit polls show Gillespie winning non-college-educated whites 74 percent to 24 percent. In 2016, Tru riversedge Nov 2017 #5
that's his base. the infamous immovable 30% Takket Nov 2017 #6
yup! riversedge Nov 2017 #9
My strongest bias is with non-college educated whites. Lucky Luciano Nov 2017 #10
I'd say Northam has got this by about 6% sunonmars Nov 2017 #7
nytimes: Northam leads by 1.2 percentage points over Ed Gillespie with 3 percent of precincts fully riversedge Nov 2017 #8
NYT Live Estimate: Northam by 2.6% Stallion Nov 2017 #15
Its early, but Id rather be Northam than Gillespie. Hes holding his own in rural precincts relati riversedge Nov 2017 #11
Bellweather county sunonmars Nov 2017 #12
Reminder of the top Bellwether counties:............... Whoever is ahead here is favored to win riversedge Nov 2017 #17
This is just one location, but suggesting a slight D shift from last year.......................Ches riversedge Nov 2017 #22
if you are Gillespie...... Takket Nov 2017 #13
Im watching CNN right now, and its comparing the 2017 Virginia gubernatorial results to those from riversedge Nov 2017 #14
NYTIMES projecting +4 Northam MyNameIsKhan Nov 2017 #16
Now 4.3 Stallion Nov 2017 #19
5.7 now itsrobert Nov 2017 #21
I think he will win by 7-8 points maybe even 10... MyNameIsKhan Nov 2017 #25
MSNBC Just now... Invidious Nov 2017 #18
57% reporting in Chesterfield, Gillespie up 50-49. Was 48-46 Trump sunonmars Nov 2017 #20
Northam's running even in a county where R's should be ahead octoberlib Nov 2017 #23
Loudon - Northam up 18 sunonmars Nov 2017 #24
I'm feeling really good about this now Awsi Dooger Nov 2017 #26
Holy crap sunonmars Nov 2017 #27
Whoo Hooo! Amimnoch Nov 2017 #46
/ Matthew28 Nov 2017 #28
gillespie still only up about 6k Takket Nov 2017 #29
Breaking : First time a Dem has won mayor's race in Manchester, NH since 2003. sunonmars Nov 2017 #30
:-) riversedge Nov 2017 #33
NECK AND NECK - Northam in the lead! ehrnst Nov 2017 #31
7:38 PM Gillespie Doesnt Appear To Be Getting The Turnout Surge That Trump Did................. riversedge Nov 2017 #32
Northam is up with almost no Fairfax in. That just doesn't happen with VA Dems. sunonmars Nov 2017 #34
Northam now up.... Takket Nov 2017 #35
Wow, look at this. sunonmars Nov 2017 #36
Ralph Northam leads by 0.3 percentage points over Ed Gillespie with 26 percent of precincts fully r riversedge Nov 2017 #37
Neck and neck: Arlington, VA still not all in- had very heavy turnout. ehrnst Nov 2017 #38
Looking at the 14 counties/cities in Virginia with at least 70 percent of the vote counted, Northam riversedge Nov 2017 #39
nice! Takket Nov 2017 #41
With 99% in, Northam is leading 60-40 in Loudoun County. McAuliffe won it by 4% in 2013 sunonmars Nov 2017 #40
VA Dems have their first pickup of the night. Congrats to David Reid in HD32! sunonmars Nov 2017 #42
Excellent! Those state delegate races are important, too. book_worm Nov 2017 #44
Go, Northam! GallopingGhost Nov 2017 #43
There's still quite a bit of time to go, but... bearsfootball516 Nov 2017 #45
ON CNN right now bearsfootball516 Nov 2017 #47
A democratic socialist just beat the House GOP whip in Virginia Fait Accompli Nov 2017 #48
NJ Already called for the Dems!!!!!!!!! Takket Nov 2017 #49
Wow. Im surveying the down-ballot wreckage for the GOP in House of Delegates races. Its not pretty riversedge Nov 2017 #50
make no mistake........ Takket Nov 2017 #53
msnbc projecting that Northam will win riversedge Nov 2017 #51
DLCC just called a few of the races! Amimnoch Nov 2017 #52
Race called by CNN!!!!! Takket Nov 2017 #54
Who would have thought. VA one of the most progressive states Thrill Nov 2017 #55
Wow... Invidious Nov 2017 #56

Matthew28

(1,798 posts)
1. /
Tue Nov 7, 2017, 08:18 PM
Nov 2017

Edward Gillespie Republican 1,613 52.9%
Ralph Northam Democrat 1,404 46.0
Clifford Hyra Libertarian 32 1.0

<1% reporting (2 of 2,566 precincts)

Matthew28

(1,798 posts)
3. /
Tue Nov 7, 2017, 08:19 PM
Nov 2017

Governor
Candidate Party Votes Pct.
Ralph Northam Democrat 6,751 50.4%
Edward Gillespie Republican 6,489 48.4
Clifford Hyra Libertarian 167 1.2

<1% reporting (9 of 2,566 precincts)

riversedge

(70,445 posts)
5. Exit polls show Gillespie winning non-college-educated whites 74 percent to 24 percent. In 2016, Tru
Tue Nov 7, 2017, 08:23 PM
Nov 2017


http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2017-election-live-coverage-results/?lpup=24240715#livepress-update-24240715


Seth Masket 7:16 PM

Exit polls show Gillespie winning non-college-educated whites 74 percent to 24 percent. In 2016, Trump won non-college-educated whites in Virginia 71 percent to 24 percent. This is pretty stable.

Lucky Luciano

(11,267 posts)
10. My strongest bias is with non-college educated whites.
Tue Nov 7, 2017, 08:29 PM
Nov 2017

They are the ones I assume I have the least in common with and will not like, but I still give everyone a chance.

riversedge

(70,445 posts)
8. nytimes: Northam leads by 1.2 percentage points over Ed Gillespie with 3 percent of precincts fully
Tue Nov 7, 2017, 08:26 PM
Nov 2017
https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/virginia-governor-election-gillespie-northam


Updated 7:25:08 PM ET
Live Election Results and Estimates: Virginia Governor Race

By MATTHEW BLOCH, NATE COHN, JOSH KATZ, JASMINE LEE and KEVIN QUEALY

Ralph Northam leads by 1.2 percentage points over Ed Gillespie with 3 percent of precincts fully reporting. Jump to estimate of final result ?
Candidate Party Votes Pct.
Ralph Northam Democrat 23,657 50.1%
Ed Gillespie Republican 23,075 48.8

riversedge

(70,445 posts)
11. Its early, but Id rather be Northam than Gillespie. Hes holding his own in rural precincts relati
Tue Nov 7, 2017, 08:29 PM
Nov 2017

http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2017-election-live-coverage-results/?lpup=24240715#livepress-update-24240715

David Wasserman 7:27 PM

It’s early, but I’d rather be Northam than Gillespie. He’s holding his own in rural precincts relative to our benchmarks, and he’s getting higher turnout and support in the few Democratic strongholds that have reported. For example, in Williamsburg’s Matoaka precinct, Northam beat Gillespie 1,769 to 633. Four years ago, McAuliffe beat Cuccinelli there 1,399 to 668.
Harry Enten
Harry Enten 7:19 PM

It’s very early, but I’m looking at three counties where Trump did well and have some very early results. If we use the 2016 presidential election as a baseline, Northam is doing well enough in those three counties to win statewide. But let’s wait for more results

riversedge

(70,445 posts)
17. Reminder of the top Bellwether counties:............... Whoever is ahead here is favored to win
Tue Nov 7, 2017, 08:34 PM
Nov 2017


Decision Desk HQ Retweeted
G Elliott Morris
📈🙂? @gelliottmorris 21m21 minutes ago
Replying to @gelliottmorris

Reminder of the top Bellwether counties:

Montgomery
Caroline
Hopewell
Covington
Staunton

Whoever is ahead here is favored to win





riversedge

(70,445 posts)
22. This is just one location, but suggesting a slight D shift from last year.......................Ches
Tue Nov 7, 2017, 08:38 PM
Nov 2017


http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2017-election-live-coverage-results/?lpup=24240715#livepress-update-24240715

Seth Masket 7:36 PM

The votes in Chesterfield County, Virginia, appear to be just about complete. Gillespie is ahead by 1 point there. Trump beat Clinton by 2 points there last year. This is just one location, but suggesting a slight D shift from last year.





Takket

(21,702 posts)
13. if you are Gillespie......
Tue Nov 7, 2017, 08:31 PM
Nov 2017

and goodness help you if you are.... you want a decent lead before the urban areas start rolling in. first 5% he's only about about 6k, not enough

riversedge

(70,445 posts)
14. Im watching CNN right now, and its comparing the 2017 Virginia gubernatorial results to those from
Tue Nov 7, 2017, 08:32 PM
Nov 2017


http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2017-election-live-coverage-results/?lpup=24240715#livepress-update-24240715
Harry Enten 7:29 PM

I’m watching CNN right now, and it’s comparing the 2017 Virginia gubernatorial results to those from 2013. I think that may be a mistake. I’m looking at the returns, and it seems to me that the 2016 presidential election returns may be a better guide. If that is, in fact, correct, then Northam is in pretty good shape. He seems to be doing what he needs to do if 2016 is the correct guide. If it isn’t, then all bets are off.

sunonmars

(8,656 posts)
24. Loudon - Northam up 18
Tue Nov 7, 2017, 08:39 PM
Nov 2017

Nearly half the precincts are reporting in Loudon County. Although Gillespie didn’t need to win it in order to win statewide, he needed to be competitive. He’s down 18 points.

 

Awsi Dooger

(14,565 posts)
26. I'm feeling really good about this now
Tue Nov 7, 2017, 08:39 PM
Nov 2017

I expected Gillespie's margin to be roughly double where it is right now, closer to 10% instead of 5%, where most of the updates have it.

When I've really had to sweat Virginia outcomes like Webb a decade or so ago and then Warner in 2014, the deficit was in that 10-12% range early.

Northam may win this by more than I expected, which was 2-3 points.

Let's get the lieutenant governor and statehouse races also.

sunonmars

(8,656 posts)
27. Holy crap
Tue Nov 7, 2017, 08:40 PM
Nov 2017

35% in VA's HD-13, and Dem Danica Roem leads GOP Del. Bob Marshall 58-35. Would be huge win if she beats him.

 

Amimnoch

(4,558 posts)
46. Whoo Hooo!
Tue Nov 7, 2017, 09:06 PM
Nov 2017

SOOOO hoping she wins! Wanting to see that win just as much as the governors races.



Go Danica!

Matthew28

(1,798 posts)
28. /
Tue Nov 7, 2017, 08:41 PM
Nov 2017

Ralph Northam leads by 4 percentage points over Ed Gillespie with 21 percent of precincts fully reporting. Jump to estimate of final result ?
Candidate Party Votes Pct.
Ralph Northam Democrat 253,843 51.4%
Ed Gillespie Republican 235,098 47.6
Clifford Hyra Libertarian 5,229 1.1

Takket

(21,702 posts)
29. gillespie still only up about 6k
Tue Nov 7, 2017, 08:43 PM
Nov 2017

and this is still all your small rural areas where he should be cleaning up. all of Northam's big counties are yet to be counted

riversedge

(70,445 posts)
32. 7:38 PM Gillespie Doesnt Appear To Be Getting The Turnout Surge That Trump Did.................
Tue Nov 7, 2017, 08:46 PM
Nov 2017




http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2017-election-live-coverage-results/?lpup=24240715#livepress-update-24240715
David Wasserman 7:38 PM Gillespie Doesn’t Appear To Be Getting The Turnout Surge That Trump Did

A smattering of precincts deep in the heart of Trump Country tell the same story: Gillespie is getting close to Trump levels of support, but he’s not getting the turnout surge we’re seeing in parts of the state for Northam. An example is Buchanan County’s Bull precinct, where Gillespie won 178 to 37. Trump won that precinct 434 to 83 last November, and Cuccinelli won there 197 to 55 in 2013. That’s the level of support Gillespie needs, but probably not the turnout level he needs to win statewide.

sunonmars

(8,656 posts)
36. Wow, look at this.
Tue Nov 7, 2017, 08:49 PM
Nov 2017

Looking at the 14 counties/cities in Virginia with at least 70 percent of the vote counted, Northam is running an average of 7.6 points ahead of where Clinton performed last year.

riversedge

(70,445 posts)
37. Ralph Northam leads by 0.3 percentage points over Ed Gillespie with 26 percent of precincts fully r
Tue Nov 7, 2017, 08:49 PM
Nov 2017




https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/virginia-governor-election-gillespie-northam
Updated 7:48:18 PM ET
Live Election Results and Estimates: Virginia Governor Race

By MATTHEW BLOCH, NATE COHN, JOSH KATZ, JASMINE LEE and KEVIN QUEALY

Ralph Northam leads by 0.3 percentage points over Ed Gillespie with 26 percent of precincts fully reporting. Jump to estimate of final result ?
Candidate Party Votes Pct.
Ralph Northam Democrat 311,331 49.6%
Ed Gillespie Republican 309,232 49.2
 

ehrnst

(32,640 posts)
38. Neck and neck: Arlington, VA still not all in- had very heavy turnout.
Tue Nov 7, 2017, 08:51 PM
Nov 2017

77% Northam with 9 of 55 precints reporting.

riversedge

(70,445 posts)
39. Looking at the 14 counties/cities in Virginia with at least 70 percent of the vote counted, Northam
Tue Nov 7, 2017, 08:51 PM
Nov 2017




http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2017-election-live-coverage-results/?lpup=24240715#livepress-update-24240715



Seth Masket 7:48 PM

Looking at the 14 counties/cities in Virginia with at least 70 percent of the vote counted, Northam is running an average of 7.6 points ahead of where Clinton performed last year.
Harry Enten
Harry Enten 7:44 PM

While the lieutenant governor and attorney general races are closer than the gubernatorial race in Virginia, it seems to me that Democrats are more likely than not to sweep all statewide offices.

bearsfootball516

(6,377 posts)
45. There's still quite a bit of time to go, but...
Tue Nov 7, 2017, 09:05 PM
Nov 2017

Guys, I think Northam is going to do this, and possibly very comfortably.

riversedge

(70,445 posts)
50. Wow. Im surveying the down-ballot wreckage for the GOP in House of Delegates races. Its not pretty
Tue Nov 7, 2017, 09:09 PM
Nov 2017


http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2017-election-live-coverage-results/?lpup=24240715#livepress-update-24240715

David Wasserman 8:06 PM

Wow. I’m surveying the down-ballot wreckage for the GOP in House of Delegates races. It’s not pretty for Republicans. Already, Democrat Wendy Gooditis (D) has defeated Del. Randy Minchew (R) in outer Loudoun County, which was one of our Democratic “reach” districts.

Takket

(21,702 posts)
53. make no mistake........
Tue Nov 7, 2017, 09:14 PM
Nov 2017

this a referendum on drumpf, as well as STOLEN elections....... the PEOPLE are angry........ the GOP has GOT to impeach him if they don't want their entire party to collapse

 

Amimnoch

(4,558 posts)
52. DLCC just called a few of the races!
Tue Nov 7, 2017, 09:13 PM
Nov 2017

Received via email:



Results are starting to pour in, and we already have our first major victories to report tonight: Democrats Danica Roem and David Reid have just FLIPPED two Virginia state House seats from red to blue!

It’s still VERY early in the count, and we’ll have more updates to come from Virginia, New Jersey, Washington state, and more than 30 legislative special elections around the country.

To guarantee delivery of election results updates like this one, please add “staff@dlcc.org” to your address book or safe senders list:

Copy our email address staff@dlcc.org, go to your address book, click on “create new contact,” and then paste our email address in there and hit “save”.

Thank you for your support, and we’ll keep you updated on more election returns as they come in.

– The DLCC Team














Takket

(21,702 posts)
54. Race called by CNN!!!!!
Tue Nov 7, 2017, 09:17 PM
Nov 2017

Northam wins!!!!!!!!!! Tweet about THAT you fascist fuckwad!!!!!!!!!!!! America CAN'T STAND YOU!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Invidious

(205 posts)
56. Wow...
Tue Nov 7, 2017, 09:28 PM
Nov 2017

It looks like Northam is going to take Virginia Beach city....That LIKE NEVER happens for a Dem candidate. Amazing!

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