General Discussion

Va Lefty

(6,252 posts) Wed Nov 8, 2017, 10:45 AM Nov 2017

Grading the pollsters (Virginia)

http://bluevirginia.us/2017/11/so-how-did-the-pollsters-predictors-do-last-night-ranking-from-a-to-f

A-
"Quinnipiac’s final poll had Northam up 9 points, which is exactly what he won by. Now, they could get “dinged” for their previously +17 outlier poll, but I’d say they redeemed themselves with the final poll."

5 replies

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Grading the pollsters (Virginia) (Original Post) Va Lefty Nov 2017 OP

This message was self-deleted by its author drray23 Nov 2017 #1

I think the previous poll was an outlier.... ollie10 Nov 2017 #2

Quinnipiac also got NJ Gov race exactly right. octoberlib Nov 2017 #3

They could've been right but the trend was toward gillespie Tiggeroshii Nov 2017 #4

I know that's what the pundits were saying Va Lefty Nov 2017 #5

Response to Va Lefty (Original post)

drray23 This message was self-deleted by its author.

ollie10

(2,091 posts)

2. I think the previous poll was an outlier....

Reply to Va Lefty (Original post)

Wed Nov 8, 2017, 10:58 AM

Nov 2017

....but it is possible that Northam was higher at that time, and his support went down to 9% on election day.

octoberlib

(14,971 posts)

3. Quinnipiac also got NJ Gov race exactly right.

Reply to Va Lefty (Original post)

Wed Nov 8, 2017, 10:59 AM

Nov 2017

Tiggeroshii

(11,088 posts)

4. They could've been right but the trend was toward gillespie

Reply to Va Lefty (Original post)

Wed Nov 8, 2017, 11:04 AM

Nov 2017

As other polls indicated. If the elections were last week Northam probably would've won by 17 since he over performed polls by 6-7% and many were putting him ahead by close to 10%

Va Lefty

(6,252 posts)

5. I know that's what the pundits were saying

Reply to Tiggeroshii (Reply #4)

Wed Nov 8, 2017, 11:20 AM

Nov 2017

but exit polls showed Northam winning 62-36 among voters who decided in the past week. My guess, and that's all it is, is Gillespie running ads bragging about his A+ grade from the NRA did not play well in the aftermath of Texas shooting. NRA voters were already on board and Independent voters were repulsed by it.

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