Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member Latest Breaking News General Discussion The DU Lounge All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search

BainsBane

(53,137 posts)
Wed Nov 8, 2017, 06:45 PM Nov 2017

"Democrats won the white male vote until recently"

That is only true if by recently you mean 1964, before the Civil Rights and Voting Rights Acts.

The percentage of whites who voted Democrat:

1960 49%
1964 59%
1968 38%
1972 32%
1976 48%
1980 36%
1984 34%
1988 41%
1992 39%
1996 44%
2000 43%
2004 44%
2008 43%
2012 39%
2016 37%

Since more women tend to vote Dem and men Republican, that means the white male vote is even less than the percentages expressed above. (Gender breakdowns are available on the links below). Therefore claims that Democrats won the white male vote until recently are false. Clearly they have not. That is not to say white male voters are not important. They are as important as anyone else, but not more important. Democratic victories depend on strong turnout among non-whites and limiting the deficit among white voters.

So when we discuss the future of the party, let's start from a factual basis. Without that, any prognostications are useless.


Sources:

http://news.gallup.com/poll/9454/election-polls-vote-groups-19601964.aspx
http://news.gallup.com/poll/9457/election-polls-vote-groups-19681972.aspx
https://ropercenter.cornell.edu/polls/us-elections/how-groups-voted/how-groups-voted-1976/
https://ropercenter.cornell.edu/polls/us-elections/how-groups-voted/how-groups-voted-1980/
http://news.gallup.com/poll/9463/election-polls-vote-groups-19841988.aspx
https://ropercenter.cornell.edu/polls/us-elections/how-groups-voted/how-groups-voted-1992/
https://ropercenter.cornell.edu/polls/us-elections/how-groups-voted/how-groups-voted-1996/
http://news.gallup.com/poll/9469/election-polls-vote-groups-20002004.aspx
https://ropercenter.cornell.edu/polls/us-elections/how-groups-voted/how-groups-voted-2008/
https://ropercenter.cornell.edu/polls/us-elections/how-groups-voted/how-groups-voted-2012/
https://ropercenter.cornell.edu/polls/us-elections/how-groups-voted/groups-voted-2016/

58 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
"Democrats won the white male vote until recently" (Original Post) BainsBane Nov 2017 OP
White people. VermontKevin Nov 2017 #1
Message auto-removed Name removed Nov 2017 #23
Easy fix Glamrock Nov 2017 #32
We should all follow your example BainsBane Nov 2017 #54
It's not always easy Glamrock Nov 2017 #57
White women tend to vote Republican Kaleva Nov 2017 #2
Yes, they tend to BainsBane Nov 2017 #3
Post removed Post removed Nov 2017 #24
Guillespie won a majority of white women last night BainsBane Nov 2017 #33
I'd like to see that split crazycatlady Nov 2017 #42
You may well be able to find that data BainsBane Nov 2017 #55
White, married women. SharonClark Nov 2017 #9
Same thing with white , married men Kaleva Nov 2017 #45
48% of white women vote Democratic in Virginia...this helped expand Northam's margin of victory...he Demsrule86 Nov 2017 #19
Clinton brought more than a half million more people to vote for her than Northam. NCTraveler Nov 2017 #43
I was only talking about the demographic of white women...he did do better according to what I read Demsrule86 Nov 2017 #44
Again, a comparison without figures. NCTraveler Nov 2017 #46
I saw it on DU...I suppose I can find it somewhere. Demsrule86 Nov 2017 #47
That link seems to prove my point. NCTraveler Nov 2017 #50
We have to remember the non Democratic women voters are from the red states best known as Jim Beard Nov 2017 #48
Very good point...here in Ohio when I went out to GOTV some women who's husbands assured me they Demsrule86 Nov 2017 #49
Wow! Great information. Squinch Nov 2017 #4
I only wish BainsBane Nov 2017 #5
I think people think they are getting data when they listen to the media's spin on this, which Squinch Nov 2017 #6
Message auto-removed Name removed Nov 2017 #27
Can we please stop with the "we have to reach out" to them meme? mcar Nov 2017 #7
Yes, from the list, 1964 was the only year when we won a white male majority. brush Nov 2017 #8
Winning the demographic is not the goal Awsi Dooger Nov 2017 #11
What's wrong with yesterday's winning formula? No zero sum game/gain needed. brush Nov 2017 #16
I think the GOP's extremism is doing a very good job at turning potential rethug CTyankee Nov 2017 #37
I agree BainsBane Nov 2017 #38
"Our real base, women, primarily AA women and POC." YoungDemCA Nov 2017 #15
At one political training I went to crazycatlady Nov 2017 #18
I'd be interested in seeing data on married women by age group. herding cats Nov 2017 #25
I'd like to see it too crazycatlady Nov 2017 #26
In my area...women of all colors are the boots on the ground...I see the same faces every election.. Demsrule86 Nov 2017 #20
Impressive Research irisblue Nov 2017 #10
We should be well beyond this by now. SandyZ Nov 2017 #12
Beyond what? BainsBane Nov 2017 #22
Arguing for the Republican vote at the expense of the Democratic base. SandyZ Nov 2017 #29
That has been a central point of discussion since last Nov. BainsBane Nov 2017 #30
You do realize that these national numbers can be heavily skewed by certain states/regions, yes? YoungDemCA Nov 2017 #13
How so? Demsrule86 Nov 2017 #21
Kick dalton99a Nov 2017 #14
This is just the presidential vote - we had to be doing better than that before '94 downticket. Midwestern Democrat Nov 2017 #17
Then provide data demonstrating it BainsBane Nov 2017 #28
Ask and ye shall receive. Midwestern Democrat Nov 2017 #58
From 1996 to 2008 standingtall Nov 2017 #31
At a glance it seems the Voting Rights Act and Civil Rights movements were a factor. herding cats Nov 2017 #34
Who are you quoting? Who wrote or said "Democrats won the white vote until recently."? Garrett78 Nov 2017 #35
Apparently it isnt knowledge for everyone BainsBane Nov 2017 #36
But who were you quoting? Garrett78 Nov 2017 #40
1964 is recently? crazycatlady Nov 2017 #39
Yes, I know BainsBane Nov 2017 #41
Who is making that claim, though? Garrett78 Nov 2017 #51
I saw someone on this site say it yesterday BainsBane Nov 2017 #52
This is an example BainsBane Nov 2017 #56
Thank you for posting this Gothmog Nov 2017 #53

Response to VermontKevin (Reply #1)

Glamrock

(11,803 posts)
32. Easy fix
Thu Nov 9, 2017, 12:54 AM
Nov 2017

Don't respond. Don't get sucked in. I refuse to contribute to any thread that's anti Hill, anti Bernie, anti Dem. Unfortunately, people here are all too willing to take the bait mainly cause their feelings are hurt about their personal favorite candidate. Fuck that shit. I ain't falling for it.

Glamrock

(11,803 posts)
57. It's not always easy
Thu Nov 9, 2017, 11:50 PM
Nov 2017

But you know what? The people who hate Bernie are my political allies. Just as people like me who think the party could use some change are their political allies. No point in fighting with each other. Can you imagine us and the Brits in a two year pissing match about who should be Supreme Commander of the Allied Expeditionary Forces? Maybe that analogy is a bit overblown, but I don't think so. The fate of the country is at stake if you ask me...

Kaleva

(36,404 posts)
2. White women tend to vote Republican
Wed Nov 8, 2017, 06:56 PM
Nov 2017

I think one may have to go back to 1964 for the last time the Dem candidate for president won a majority of the white female vote.

BainsBane

(53,137 posts)
3. Yes, they tend to
Wed Nov 8, 2017, 07:02 PM
Nov 2017

but not as heavily as white men. The data I found didn't break down race by gender, only race or gender.

Response to BainsBane (Reply #3)

crazycatlady

(4,492 posts)
42. I'd like to see that split
Thu Nov 9, 2017, 01:05 PM
Nov 2017

Big split among white women voters is married vs unmarried. Married women tend to be more conservative (I've talked to a few that said that their husbands decide who they vote for)

I'd also like to see it split by age.

BainsBane

(53,137 posts)
55. You may well be able to find that data
Thu Nov 9, 2017, 03:24 PM
Nov 2017

But yes, I have often heard that single women tend to vote for Democrats. And older voters tend to favor Republicans; that was true in VA.

Demsrule86

(68,825 posts)
19. 48% of white women vote Democratic in Virginia...this helped expand Northam's margin of victory...he
Thu Nov 9, 2017, 12:05 AM
Nov 2017

did better than Hillary.

 

NCTraveler

(30,481 posts)
43. Clinton brought more than a half million more people to vote for her than Northam.
Thu Nov 9, 2017, 01:11 PM
Nov 2017

You can't use a comparison as you have in order to state one did better than the other. Northam was over 500,00 votes short of the mark Clinton hit.

Demsrule86

(68,825 posts)
44. I was only talking about the demographic of white women...he did do better according to what I read
Thu Nov 9, 2017, 01:20 PM
Nov 2017

....I love Hillary Clinton...not knocking her but hoping white women have reconsidered supporting the GOP Party and that can help us in coming elections.

 

NCTraveler

(30,481 posts)
46. Again, a comparison without figures.
Thu Nov 9, 2017, 01:30 PM
Nov 2017

With percentages available I’m still willing to state more showed up for Clinton. Statistics cannot be used like this in a meaningful way.

I agree with your overall point. I do not question your motives or honesty. I know that is often the go-to here even under minor disagreements(not you).

 

NCTraveler

(30,481 posts)
50. That link seems to prove my point.
Thu Nov 9, 2017, 01:49 PM
Nov 2017

Clinton got more women to the polls than Northam.

Clinton 1981473(.56)=1109625
Northam 1405177(.61)=857158

Any additional context would have to include additional information.

I was going with averages of m/f above as it hovered around 50 for both elections. If I would have taken that into account, which would be the accurate way to do it, Northams numbers would slightly go down and Clintons would slightly go up.

 

Jim Beard

(2,535 posts)
48. We have to remember the non Democratic women voters are from the red states best known as
Thu Nov 9, 2017, 01:39 PM
Nov 2017

Guns & God. Notice how the religious men are speaking for the meek, men battered women at Southerland Springs. They will stick with guns.

Demsrule86

(68,825 posts)
49. Very good point...here in Ohio when I went out to GOTV some women who's husbands assured me they
Thu Nov 9, 2017, 01:41 PM
Nov 2017

would vote GOP in 08 and 12...mouthed 'voting for Obama' at me...some of these men are very controlling.

BainsBane

(53,137 posts)
5. I only wish
Wed Nov 8, 2017, 07:37 PM
Nov 2017

more people cared about information and data. It seems that repeating narratives, even false ones, is too often a greater priority that analysis based on evidence.

Squinch

(51,090 posts)
6. I think people think they are getting data when they listen to the media's spin on this, which
Wed Nov 8, 2017, 08:00 PM
Nov 2017

has solidly been "Dems are losing white men." It was all we heard for a while.

Response to BainsBane (Reply #5)

mcar

(42,471 posts)
7. Can we please stop with the "we have to reach out" to them meme?
Wed Nov 8, 2017, 08:16 PM
Nov 2017

And focus on GOTV and our real base, women, primarily AA women and POC.

brush

(53,978 posts)
8. Yes, from the list, 1964 was the only year when we won a white male majority.
Wed Nov 8, 2017, 08:42 PM
Nov 2017

So all the posters pleading for us to cater to the white working class are living way in the past.

 

Awsi Dooger

(14,565 posts)
11. Winning the demographic is not the goal
Wed Nov 8, 2017, 10:07 PM
Nov 2017

Cutting losses is the goal. Otherwise the positive margins elsewhere mean little to nothing.

Yesterday we were propped by independents turning against Trump. That's all that happened. Not dependable going forward. Maybe 2018 but not beyond. Incumbents receive massive benefit of a doubt, especially if the economy is solid. We need to get that white share back up to 39 or 40%.

brush

(53,978 posts)
16. What's wrong with yesterday's winning formula? No zero sum game/gain needed.
Wed Nov 8, 2017, 10:42 PM
Nov 2017

7 out of 10 white males are conservative repugs. It's crazy to risk losing some of our base to pander to these hardcore repugs who haven't voted Democratic for decades.

Who do we sacrifice — African-American women, progressive whites, Latino-Americans, Asian-Americans, LGBTQs, Muslim-Americans, the handicapped, left-leaning independents?

Who? Because to pander to conservative whites we have to tamp down and move way right from our championing of issues important to our aforementioned base in order to attract repug voting whites.

So who is it gonna be? Oh, I get it now, the eternal bogeyman, the favorite target of Interstate Crosscheck vote suppressors and racist, killer, white cops everywhere — African-American men. Surely we can do without them, right? I mean they're used to being discriminated against anyway. Lose some of them and they'll hardly be noticed, huh?

Not smart.

What's smart is to keep up our determined get-out-the-vote effort and add a just as concerted effort to combat the vote suppression tactics of those very repugs you want to try to attract.

Again, last night's results point to a winning formula. People have seen trump and his incompetents in action and they don't like them. If our tactics ain't broke, don't fix 'em.

Plus there's no Comey lurking in the weeds to sabotage things at the last minute, unless you count the Our Revolution and Democracy for America ilk.

CTyankee

(63,926 posts)
37. I think the GOP's extremism is doing a very good job at turning potential rethug
Thu Nov 9, 2017, 11:31 AM
Nov 2017

voters into considering the "no labels" approach and becoming Independents. Then we Dems need to pull them into our party or at least into voting for their best interests (which is the Dem party's interests). The GOP is of great assistance in this regard ...

BainsBane

(53,137 posts)
38. I agree
Thu Nov 9, 2017, 11:40 AM
Nov 2017

Minimizing the losses does seem important from the figures above. It is interesting, however, that Dems did better with whites in some losing years than winning years. There is a conundrum, however, since many white men seem to interpret any message of inclusion and diversity as a threat to them.

Just as important if not more so is working to stop or limit voter disenfranchisement. That also means knocking it out of the DNC (eg. Nomiki Konst).

 

YoungDemCA

(5,714 posts)
15. "Our real base, women, primarily AA women and POC."
Wed Nov 8, 2017, 10:20 PM
Nov 2017

Sounds rather exclusionary. Also not a winning strategy.

PS: "POC" isn't a meaningful term.

crazycatlady

(4,492 posts)
18. At one political training I went to
Thu Nov 9, 2017, 12:04 AM
Nov 2017

THe trainer was talking about the Rising American Electorate (RAE) that Dems should target.

They are
Under 30
People of color
Unmarried women

(married women tend to vote more conservatively-- I've talked to several married women who said they vote how their husband wants them to)

herding cats

(19,569 posts)
25. I'd be interested in seeing data on married women by age group.
Thu Nov 9, 2017, 12:38 AM
Nov 2017

I'm not sure that younger married women lockstep with their husbands as reliably as older ones do. Of course that would need to be broken down by education level and income also if it were to be truly useful info.

crazycatlady

(4,492 posts)
26. I'd like to see it too
Thu Nov 9, 2017, 12:42 AM
Nov 2017

The married women I've talked to who said their husband decided the vote were all over 50. This is purely anecdotal and I have no data to back that up.

I'd also like to see it broken down by region, race, and religion.

(Of course religion is hard to determine since no state has it on their VR form--- my profile in VAN identifies me as Christian but I'm agnostic).

Demsrule86

(68,825 posts)
20. In my area...women of all colors are the boots on the ground...I see the same faces every election..
Thu Nov 9, 2017, 12:08 AM
Nov 2017

Almost never see guys...we had one guy in 16... he was really good...came from a different area but very experienced and he was it in terms of guys...the ladies knock on doors, brave the dogs...I had a guy threaten to sick a dog on me once when I was working Obama's 2008 campaign...I work my ass off every election, and I am so happy about yesterday. Auto union does a great deal though and they are mostly men.

BainsBane

(53,137 posts)
30. That has been a central point of discussion since last Nov.
Thu Nov 9, 2017, 12:48 AM
Nov 2017

And we see repetition of false points that Dems won white male voters until recently. I saw such a post today.

17. This is just the presidential vote - we had to be doing better than that before '94 downticket.
Wed Nov 8, 2017, 11:59 PM
Nov 2017

In a significantly less diverse nation, we had to be doing better than that with whites in the down ticket races to be able to rack up the majorities we were getting in the US House and Senate and at the state level.

BainsBane

(53,137 posts)
28. Then provide data demonstrating it
Thu Nov 9, 2017, 12:46 AM
Nov 2017

That you believe something doesn’t necessarily make it true. I wonder if you are assuming white men comprise a larger percentage of the electorate than they really do?

Democrats dominated white voters during Jim Crow. The South was a one-party region, all Democrat. Democratic presidents until LBJ, including FDR, enforced segregation. And that is the time we are told that the Democratic Party stood for people who really matter.

The fact is Democrats win without a majority of white voters. White men are important, just as all voters are. What some object to is that they aren’t considered the most important.

58. Ask and ye shall receive.
Fri Nov 10, 2017, 08:17 AM
Nov 2017

In 1972, the electorate was about 90% white. McGovern only won 37.5% of the vote in the presidential election but the Democrats won 52.1% of the vote in the US House elections. Assuming Democrats won 90% of the non-white vote (which is probably about right - McGovern got 87% of this demographic), Democratic House candidates had to have won about 48% of the white vote to get up to 52.1%.

In 1984, the electorate was about 86% white. Mondale only won 40.6% of the vote in the presidential election but the Democrats won 52.1% of the vote in the US House elections. Again assuming Democrats won 90% of the non-white vote (Mondale won 87% of this demographic), Democratic House candidates had to have won about 46% of the white vote to get up to 52.1%

In 1988, the electorate was about 85% white. Dukakis only won 45.6% of the vote in the presidential election but the Democrats won 53.3% of the vote in the US House elections. Again assuming Democrats won 90% of the non-white vote (and this is probably too generous - Dukakis only won 82% of this demographic), Democratic House candidates had to have won about 47% of the white vote to get up to 53.3%

No one is saying that Democrats will ever win the majority of the white vote or should even try - but given the way federal and state legislative seats are allocated and that the diversity in demographics is not evenly distributed across the country, the Democrats would certainly be in better shape getting 40% or better of the white vote than letting their share continue to slide into the 30s.

standingtall

(2,787 posts)
31. From 1996 to 2008
Thu Nov 9, 2017, 12:53 AM
Nov 2017

Democrats were in about the mid 40s with white males and the after electing an African American President in 08 comes a 4% drop in 2012.

herding cats

(19,569 posts)
34. At a glance it seems the Voting Rights Act and Civil Rights movements were a factor.
Thu Nov 9, 2017, 01:43 AM
Nov 2017

Then we had a post Nixon bump in '76 that quickly dissolved in 1980 with Reagan. Who had opposed both the Civil Rights Act and the Voting Rights Act.

Garrett78

(10,721 posts)
35. Who are you quoting? Who wrote or said "Democrats won the white vote until recently."?
Thu Nov 9, 2017, 02:54 AM
Nov 2017

I thought it was common knowledge by now that no Democratic presidential candidate has won the white vote since LBJ.

BainsBane

(53,137 posts)
52. I saw someone on this site say it yesterday
Thu Nov 9, 2017, 03:04 PM
Nov 2017

Then the fact is the entire discussion since the GE loss has been about catering to white men and Trump voters in particular.
People would not be insisting that the party deprioritize civil rights and reproductive rights in order to "win" if they did not believe white male voters were more important those groups that do break for Democrats. The entire political culture of the past year plus has revolved around a relentless focus on white male privilege and prosperity, with those earning far more than most Americans cast as oppressed and forgotten. "Working class" has come to be defined in ways that exclude the great majority of low- to middle-income workers and instead focus on the top 21% (a household income of $100k, which Trump won) and upward.

Now people are certainly within their rights to advance their own interests, as well they should. But they should do so from a position of reality rather than false narratives. Unfortunately, we live in a political culture in which evidence and fact are avoided at all costs if they interfere with convenient narratives.

Latest Discussions»General Discussion»"Democrats won the white ...