Alabama Senate: One Hot Mess Moves to Toss Up

Cook Political Report:

It’s been five days since a Washington Post report detailed the stories of four women who allege that Republican nominee Roy Moore engaged in inappropriate sexual conduct with them when they were between the ages of 14 and 18 years old and Moore was in his 30s. Five days haven’t brought much clarity to what impact these charges will have on the special election scheduled on December 12. If anything, divisions between Moore and many of his supporters in Alabama and Republicans in Congress have only grown deeper.

It’s hard to know whether Moore can or will win the special election. What we do know is that there is so much uncertainty surrounding the vote that moving the race to the Toss Up is the best way to describe where this race is today.

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So, yes, this race is a hot mess that is likely to get messier between now and December 12. And, the circumstances of a special election and the allegations against Moore combine to create as much uncertainty as we’ve seen in a Senate race since 2000 when Democratic Gov. Mel Carnahan was on the ballot despite his death in a plane crash three weeks before the election. The contest moves to Toss Up, as it is the only appropriate way of describing this uncertainty. Stay tuned.