Nick Clegg on course to lose seat at election, according to Lord Ashcroft poll
Source: The Guardian
Nick Clegg is predicted to lose his seat of Sheffield Hallam in the latest batch of polls commissioned by Lord Ashcroft setting out the state of the race for votes in eight key Liberal Democrat battleground seats.
The poll shows Clegg trailing Labour by two points, but on Wednesday the Lib Dem leader said he believed he would win in May partly because of his name recognition with the local electorate.
The data also shows that the Conservatives may not be campaigning hard in the seat, in a potential sign that the Tory high command would like to see Clegg returned. The Tory contact rate is the lowest of any of the eight seats surveyed by Ashcroft.
Read more: http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/01/nick-clegg-on-course-to-lose-seat-at-election-according-lord-ashcroft-poll
T_i_B
(14,749 posts)I say that as somebody who grew up in Sheffield Hallam, and lives & works nearby. It's a very affluent and traditionally small c conservative constituency where there is still a fair bit of hostility to Labour due largely to how they run the local council.
Clegg has a huge majority, and even after all he's done he should be able to hold onto the seat. Even if it does meanrunning as a surrogate Tory.
I should also mention that I've known the Labour candidate Oliver Coppard since childhood and if truth be told, I don't rate him either!
LeftishBrit
(41,212 posts)His antics and betrayals may, however, cause a lot of LibDem defeats elsewhere - unfortunately in many places by Tories.
T_i_B
(14,749 posts)...is local election results since Clegg jumped in bed with David Cameron back in 2010.
The Lib Dem vote at Council elections since 2010 has held up in Clegg's constituency, whereas most other places locally it's collapsed. I myself haven't seen a single Lib Dem leaflet since 2011. Before that they were a regular occurance.
Nye Bevan
(25,406 posts)brooklynite
(94,796 posts)T_i_B
(14,749 posts)Not entirely surprising, although it will reinforce the perception that Clegg is little more then a surrogate Tory.
I must also point out that John Harthman is hardly the most persuasive of Tories. I remember him addressing our sixth form in 1997 and it was pretty excruciating.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/15/former-tory-candidate-tells-sheffield-hallam-to-vote-clegg
In a letter sent out by the Lib Dems as part of their election literature, John Harthman who stood against the rival partys last MP in the constituency, Richard Allan in 2001 says that Clegg was incredibly brave to put the countrys interests before his own party interests when he went into coalition with the Conservative party at the last election.
Conservatives in Sheffield Hallam have a choice, the letter reads. We can stick to our narrow party interests and vote for a Tory candidate who wont win, or we can vote Nick Clegg to make sure that Ed Milibands Labour candidate doesnt sneak in through the back door.
Harthman argues that it is in the best interests of the people of Sheffield Hallam and the country as a whole that Clegg is returned as MP for the constituency, so Id urge you to give him your vote in May this year.
roamer65
(36,747 posts)A Con UKIP coalition gov't would be a very bad thing for the UK. Hopefully Cameron says no to them as a coalition partner.
T_i_B
(14,749 posts)....is that at very worst UKIP would only win about 7 seats, and even then most of them would be taken off the Conservatives. They are sure of at least 1 seat but beyond that?
The bad news is that UKIP are the party that most Tories would want to go into coalition with, and as you say that would be a total disaster.
Beyond that, the Tories might also want to go into Coalition with Northern Ireland's DUP.
And the Lib Dems have proved weak coalition partners, so another Tory/Lib Dem coalition would still be acceptable to many Tory voters.
muriel_volestrangler
(101,391 posts)In contrast to the general polls, they think the Lib Dems will end up with a slightly higher vote share than UKIP; and UKIP will only get around 10% of the vote, and just one seat (though their FAQ seems to show they're uneasy about that prediction: "How confident are you that UKIP will really do so poorly at converting votes into seats?" "Not as confident as the model says we are, for many of the reasons noted above" .
I looked at what they say about their model; it looks sophisticated, but doesn't seem to try to use local council election results to help with knowing local swings, which seems surprising.
T_i_B
(14,749 posts)I couldn't say that Clegg should retain his seat with as much confidence were it not for the local council results in Sheffield Hallam since 2010.
Mind you, by the same token the Lib Dems are not standing a single a single candidate in council elections just over the border in Derbyshire where I live. The decline of the Lib Dems round here outside of Sheffield Hallam has been quite pronounced.