Clinton Leads in Early States, But Sanders Popular in New Hampshire
Source: Morning Consult
Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton leads the Democratic primary field by a wide margin in three early nominating states though any Democrat who captures the partys presidential title could be saddled with an albatross named Barack Obama.
New polls conducted by Morning Consult show Clinton leading her Democratic rivals by huge margins, more than 40 points, in Iowa and South Carolina, two states she lost when seeking the Democratic nomination in 2008.
Clinton takes 54 percent of the vote in Iowa, compared with just 12 percent for Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and 9 percent for Vice President Joe Biden. In South Carolina, Clinton leads Biden by a 56 percent to 15 percent margin, with Sanders trailing at 10 percent.
But in the state that provided Clinton her biggest boost in 2008, the margin is much closer: Among voters who say they will participate in New Hampshires Democratic primary, 44 percent choose Clinton, while 32 percent pick Sanders, who hails from neighboring Vermont.
Read more: http://morningconsult.com/2015/06/clinton-leads-in-early-states-but-sanders-popular-in-new-hampshire/
Morning Consult is new in the polling biz, so I have no sense of their track record. But, accepting these as indicative, it suggests that Hillary wins the Iowa Caucus, Bernie comes close (maybe wins) in New Hampshire, Hillary wins the SC Primary, and then we move to large and multiple states where retail politicking isn't possible. What does Bernie do them?
Divernan
(15,480 posts)This is particularly significant since senior voters turn out in disproportionately HIGH numbers at the polls, compared to younger age demographic groups.
http://money.usnews.com/money/retirement/slideshows/states-with-the-best-older-voter-turnout
States with the Best Older Voter Turnout
By Emily Brandon
March 19, 2012 | 8:43 a.m. EDT
(iStockphoto)
Senior citizens are much more likely than younger people to show up on election day to cast ballots. Nationwide, 61 percent of people age 65 and older voted in the 2010 election, compared to 46 percent of all citizens
http://morningconsult.com/polls/bring-the-vote-home-poll-seniors-lean-toward-republicans-in-2016/
Bring the Vote Home Poll: Seniors Favor GOP When Hillary Clinton is the Democratic Nominee
Morning Consult Polling | June 10, 2015
Morning Consult conducted a national survey on behalf of Bring the Vote Home of 3,904 registered voters 65 years old and over on April 27- May 5, 2015 and June 5-8, 2015. Results from the full survey have a margin of error of ±2%
Key Takeaways:
Seniors Favor GOP when Hillary Clinton is Democratic Nominee
When placed head to head, seniors chose Scott Walker (45%) over Hillary Clinton (36%), and Jeb Bush (44%) over Hillary Clinton (41%) for President.
Key Data:
A plurality of seniors (44%) would vote for a Republican candidate if the 2016 election in their Congressional district were held today, while 35 percent would vote for the Democratic candidate
More than one-third of female seniors (36%) and exactly one in four male seniors chose ISIS as the most important issue facing the country
Urban seniors are more likely to vote for a Democratic Congressional candidate (DEM: 50%, GOP: 33%), while Suburban (DEM: 31%, GOP: 46%) and Rural seniors (DEM: 28%, GOP: 52%) more likely to vote Republican
Theres bipartisan support in favor of Congress voting on any agreement that President Obama makes with Iran concerning its nuclear program (53% of Democrats, 67% of Independents, and 71% of Republicans say Congress should vote on it)
oberliner
(58,724 posts)Those numbers really surprised me.
onyourleft
(726 posts)...no idea. I'm a female senior and it is way, way down on my list of things with which to be concerned. Seriously, ISIS never crosses my mind unless there is an article to read.
Divernan
(15,480 posts)I agree - re ISIS being low on the list of concerns. My fellow, politically aware and involved senior friends and neighbors are much more concerned about pulling back from military involvement in foreign lands, and how their grandkids will be able to afford college, find decent jobs, pay back student loans, etc.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)Which of the following do you see as the most important issue facing the country right now?
Immigration, Health Care. Federal Deficit, Islamic State, known as ISIS, Jobs and Unemployment, Climate Change, Other (Specify), Dont Know / No Opinion
Here's the actual survey:
http://morningconsult.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/150601-MC_BTVH-National-Poll-TOPLINE1.pdf
Divernan
(15,480 posts)Even without knowing any facts about ISIS, that word alone may have influenced their choice.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)I wouldn't think that it would be, but who knows?
madokie
(51,076 posts)go into the places that old people congregate in and check out the tvs and I think you will find your answer
oberliner
(58,724 posts)Impressive that they can convince seniors that ISIS ought to be their number one concern.
madokie
(51,076 posts)old people are scared with all years now of the talk about ending SS, Medicare and all the cuts to all the different aid programs. Fox noise knows exactly what they're doing and are working off a planned course of action. F them.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)What is their motivation in doing so?
madokie
(51,076 posts)I made it pretty clear, best I can figure out, what I am saying
oberliner
(58,724 posts)I am trying to get a sense of what the larger agenda is.
madokie
(51,076 posts)to pull wool over their eyes, you know
fox could be honest and tell the news as it really is so why don't they just do that? Huh. Because they have an agenda. pretty simple one at that.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)That makes sense. Thanks for clarifying.
d_legendary1
(2,586 posts)affecting seniors. Are times that different or does the polling suck?
Smarmie Doofus
(14,498 posts)En Garde
(94 posts)Who wrote the copy for this never-heard-of-before pollster? That kind of polling bias must please even Roger Ailes. There must be far more reputable polls that you can refer to when trying to point out Hillary's inevitability.
Laser102
(816 posts)Hillary will not run from his record. No need to.
leftofcool
(19,460 posts)I don't think so and I don't think these people are reputable.
bigdarryl
(13,190 posts)Thinkingabout
(30,058 posts)Storm, and others, yes we know about fighting wars.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)Whereas most folks younger than them have not.
PADemD
(4,482 posts)Michael is the founder and CEO of Morning Consult. Before founding the company, Michael spent several years consulting at firms including the Advisory Board Company and Purple Strategies.
http://morningconsult.com/author/michael/
Elmer S. E. Dump
(5,751 posts)brooklynite
(95,060 posts)I admit that's a stretch, considering the NH poll has 11% for Biden who since he has "blood dripping from his hands" will probably have his votes go to Hillary. Otherwise, the IA and SC polls are consistent with national polling which has been consistent for the past year.
Elmer S. E. Dump
(5,751 posts)brooklynite
(95,060 posts)Dean 2004
Kucinich 2008
Elmer S. E. Dump
(5,751 posts)Obama 2008, 2012.
brooklynite
(95,060 posts)THAT is a stretch.
Barack Obama didn't win because he was an inspiring figure to people at rallies. He won because he equipped himself with a team that knew how to play hard-ball politics and target specific states to complete in, AND because he had the financial resources needed to do so. So far, Bernie Sanders is doing nothing like that.
Elmer S. E. Dump
(5,751 posts)Not gonna do it.. wouldn't be prudent. Have a great day!!
INdemo
(6,994 posts)The same place as Hillary.Through Wall St. Corporate funding.
Hillary would never ever state how much she has raised so far? (That will be easy enough to find out soon)
Bernie would.
Karl Rove's tactics was to hire a pollster to go out and find Bush friendly samples and make sure that Faux would have the info and even though they only polled 50 people that was legal because they weren't lying it was a poll.
So lets keep taking those daily polls of 40 or 50 voters and see how Hillary is doing.
brooklynite
(95,060 posts)Take into account EVERY poll over the past year or so: left leaning polls like PPP; right leaning polls like Rasmussen, and they all have Hillary Clinton right at 60%:
You know, if you shop around, you might be able to pick up UNSKEWEDPOLLS.COM on the cheap.
Indepatriot
(1,253 posts)If it's not this Thursday, I do believe it's possible the numbers may be a little different by the time the actual votes are cast.
brooklynite
(95,060 posts)Bernie Sanders has been been going up from zero, but Hillary Clinton has not been going down. As long as she stays at 57-60% that doesn't give Bernie a lot room to improve.
peacebird
(14,195 posts)I am impressed by the huge crowds turning out for Sanders, and I think it will turn into a very tight race in the end. She haas the big bucks, DNC, and M$M behind her, but Bernie has integrity, passion, and is drawing a devoted following that is taking off like wildfire!
OnlinePoker
(5,730 posts)brooklynite
(95,060 posts)...which was supposed to be the more liberal voting base.
Elmer S. E. Dump
(5,751 posts)Adrahil
(13,340 posts)It's hard to say this far out, but I think he really caps well below 40%, but we'll see. I've been wrong before.
frylock
(34,825 posts)he's run a stellar campaign thus far.
calimary
(81,611 posts)Michael Ramlet. His bio information is very brief, not really mentioning it so you have to dig deeper. He was involved with something called the "American Action Forum" - which seems to be yet another establishment/foundation/think tank from the cookie cutter industry on the CON side.
Their "experts" are here : http://americanactionforum.org/experts
I went to the first guy on the fairly lengthy list, someone named Sam Batkins, whose background includes the US Chamber of Commerce (CON), the Institute for Legal Reform (CON), and the National Taxpayers Union (CON). That's just the first guy.
The second guy, Carlos Bonilla (why was that name familiar to me - unlike any of the others on the list?) - he was an advisor to george w. dry-drunk.
The third guy, Robert Book, when you dig down past the blather you find he came from the Heritage Foundation.
I decided not to dig through the rest of 'em, at least right now, because I see a trend developing here. Yet ANOTHER wrong-winger outfit. Wonder if they'll specialize in doctoring the details like their friends at "Unskewed Polls" that earnestly tracked the "evidence" that if you REEEEEEALLLY spin the poll numbers and adjust for this and adjust for that, you find that romney is really gonna WIN!
One article I found under the Sam Batkins exploration was...
TESTIMONY March 19, 2015
The Affordable Care Act after Five Years: Wasted Money and Broken Promises
I didn't even have to continue reading after noticing how this article started. Tells me everything I need to know, really.
Therefore - I'd take ANYTHING from this so-called "Morning Consult" as pretty much CON-generated and massaged BUNK. Including the premise that the biggest thing worrying seniors is ISIS. My Ass. Besides, a focus on seniors tells you such a small part of the story anyway. They're not the ones who'll be indicators of who's ahead or who might eventually win. They're a dwindling demographic that almost always skews CONservative. I'd guess their votes may not be enough to outweigh the growing Millennium and Latino demographics.
Elmer S. E. Dump
(5,751 posts)At the 2008 National Republican Convention in St. Paul, Minnesota she was a vice chairman of the Republican Party political platform committee, for which she wrote policy statements on education issues.
rocktivity
(44,588 posts)Last edited Mon Jun 15, 2015, 05:10 PM - Edit history (1)
If Obama is an albatross around the neck of the Dem candidates, what are they going to call Dubya -- a pteradactyl?
rocktivity
MADem
(135,425 posts)They want to goad, bait and damage Clinton in the primaries, which is why they've pushed their NH results forward to show her as "in trouble" in a state that isn't First In the Nation when it comes to electoral votes.
NewSystemNeeded
(111 posts)Is a whole lot easier than all the aforementioned excuses.
No need to twist into pretzels, people.
madokie
(51,076 posts)I'm rather enjoying all this twisting to be honest.