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brooklynite

(95,060 posts)
Mon Jun 15, 2015, 07:58 AM Jun 2015

Clinton Leads in Early States, But Sanders Popular in New Hampshire

Source: Morning Consult

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton leads the Democratic primary field by a wide margin in three early nominating states — though any Democrat who captures the party’s presidential title could be saddled with an albatross named Barack Obama.

New polls conducted by Morning Consult show Clinton leading her Democratic rivals by huge margins, more than 40 points, in Iowa and South Carolina, two states she lost when seeking the Democratic nomination in 2008.

Clinton takes 54 percent of the vote in Iowa, compared with just 12 percent for Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and 9 percent for Vice President Joe Biden. In South Carolina, Clinton leads Biden by a 56 percent to 15 percent margin, with Sanders trailing at 10 percent.

But in the state that provided Clinton her biggest boost in 2008, the margin is much closer: Among voters who say they will participate in New Hampshire’s Democratic primary, 44 percent choose Clinton, while 32 percent pick Sanders, who hails from neighboring Vermont.

Read more: http://morningconsult.com/2015/06/clinton-leads-in-early-states-but-sanders-popular-in-new-hampshire/



Morning Consult is new in the polling biz, so I have no sense of their track record. But, accepting these as indicative, it suggests that Hillary wins the Iowa Caucus, Bernie comes close (maybe wins) in New Hampshire, Hillary wins the SC Primary, and then we move to large and multiple states where retail politicking isn't possible. What does Bernie do them?
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Clinton Leads in Early States, But Sanders Popular in New Hampshire (Original Post) brooklynite Jun 2015 OP
Seniors favor GOP when HRC is Dem nominee (same pollster) Divernan Jun 2015 #1
Why do so many seniors believe ISIS is the most important issue facing the country? oberliner Jun 2015 #3
I personally have... onyourleft Jun 2015 #6
Reason to question this pollster and how they framed the questions? Divernan Jun 2015 #13
Question seems pretty straightforward oberliner Jun 2015 #14
"Islamic" could have been perceived as a code word for terrorist? Divernan Jun 2015 #17
Even so - is terrorism the top concern for American seniors? oberliner Jun 2015 #37
fox noise madokie Jun 2015 #35
You may be right about that oberliner Jun 2015 #38
Not really madokie Jun 2015 #39
But why? oberliner Jun 2015 #40
Whose motivation on what madokie Jun 2015 #41
Why does Fox News want seniors to be worried about ISIS? oberliner Jun 2015 #43
to keep them from worrying about the shit they should be madokie Jun 2015 #44
Gotcha oberliner Jun 2015 #45
I would have thought that S.S. and Medicare would be the main issues d_legendary1 Jun 2015 #24
If he wins NH, the dynamic will be VERY different thereafter. n/t Smarmie Doofus Jun 2015 #2
"saddled with an albatross named Barack Obama" En Garde Jun 2015 #4
Agreed. Never thought of Obama as an albatross. Laser102 Jun 2015 #5
Seniors main concern is ISIS? leftofcool Jun 2015 #7
Kind of strange since seniors can't fight in a war they want everybody else to fight bigdarryl Jun 2015 #22
Do you think the seniors reached their age without wars, some of the WW II, Korean, Vietnam, Desert Thinkingabout Jun 2015 #26
Many of them have fought in wars oberliner Jun 2015 #46
Michael Ramlet PADemD Jun 2015 #8
Thank you for your astute analysis! Elmer S. E. Dump Jun 2015 #9
So, you DON'T think Bernie wins New Hampshire? brooklynite Jun 2015 #11
I think he wins the nomination. Elmer S. E. Dump Jun 2015 #27
based on nothing you've specified... brooklynite Jun 2015 #28
Kind of early for that... Elmer S. E. Dump Jun 2015 #30
Your you're saying Bernie Sanders has the organizational and fundraising skill of Barack Obama? brooklynite Jun 2015 #32
You're one of these that loves to put words in other mouths. Elmer S. E. Dump Jun 2015 #33
Ok but where did he get the bulk of those financial resources? INdemo Jun 2015 #42
I don't really need to... brooklynite Jun 2015 #47
When does the primary voting start? Indepatriot Jun 2015 #10
Might be...might not brooklynite Jun 2015 #12
Long time between now and the primaries. Hillary was up pretty high this far out in 08 too. peacebird Jun 2015 #15
NH poll released over the weekend has Clinton 44%, Sanders 32% amongst registered voters. OnlinePoker Jun 2015 #16
...and has Clinton 54% Sanders 12% in Iowa... brooklynite Jun 2015 #18
Then maybe you should wait a bit longer - it may surprise you. Elmer S. E. Dump Jun 2015 #31
If Bernie can't win NH, he has no chance, IMO. Adrahil Jun 2015 #25
Great to see Biden still polling so well.. frylock Jun 2015 #19
Pollster is from a "center-right" background. calimary Jun 2015 #20
Lisa Graham Keegan - RWNJ Elmer S. E. Dump Jun 2015 #34
"Obama Albatross" set off my alarm system, too rocktivity Jun 2015 #21
The Weekly Standard touts them, so I don't think they're without bias. MADem Jun 2015 #23
"Wow. Bernie is doing better and will do better than I previously thought." NewSystemNeeded Jun 2015 #29
Being from the age of the 'twist' madokie Jun 2015 #36

Divernan

(15,480 posts)
1. Seniors favor GOP when HRC is Dem nominee (same pollster)
Mon Jun 15, 2015, 08:25 AM
Jun 2015

This is particularly significant since senior voters turn out in disproportionately HIGH numbers at the polls, compared to younger age demographic groups.
http://money.usnews.com/money/retirement/slideshows/states-with-the-best-older-voter-turnout
States with the Best Older Voter Turnout
By Emily Brandon
March 19, 2012 | 8:43 a.m. EDT
(iStockphoto)
Senior citizens are much more likely than younger people to show up on election day to cast ballots. Nationwide, 61 percent of people age 65 and older voted in the 2010 election, compared to 46 percent of all citizens

http://morningconsult.com/polls/bring-the-vote-home-poll-seniors-lean-toward-republicans-in-2016/


Bring the Vote Home Poll: Seniors Favor GOP When Hillary Clinton is the Democratic Nominee
Morning Consult Polling
| June 10, 2015

Morning Consult conducted a national survey on behalf of Bring the Vote Home of 3,904 registered voters 65 years old and over on April 27- May 5, 2015 and June 5-8, 2015. Results from the full survey have a margin of error of ±2%

Key Takeaways:
Seniors Favor GOP when Hillary Clinton is Democratic Nominee

When placed head to head, seniors chose Scott Walker (45%) over Hillary Clinton (36%), and Jeb Bush (44%) over Hillary Clinton (41%) for President.

Key Data:
A plurality of seniors (44%) would vote for a Republican candidate if the 2016 election in their Congressional district were held today, while 35 percent would vote for the Democratic candidate
More than one-third of female seniors (36%) and exactly one in four male seniors chose ISIS as the most important issue facing the country
Urban seniors are more likely to vote for a Democratic Congressional candidate (DEM: 50%, GOP: 33%), while Suburban (DEM: 31%, GOP: 46%) and Rural seniors (DEM: 28%, GOP: 52%) more likely to vote Republican
There’s bipartisan support in favor of Congress voting on any agreement that President Obama makes with Iran concerning its nuclear program (53% of Democrats, 67% of Independents, and 71% of Republicans say Congress should vote on it)



 

oberliner

(58,724 posts)
3. Why do so many seniors believe ISIS is the most important issue facing the country?
Mon Jun 15, 2015, 08:33 AM
Jun 2015

Those numbers really surprised me.

onyourleft

(726 posts)
6. I personally have...
Mon Jun 15, 2015, 08:51 AM
Jun 2015

...no idea. I'm a female senior and it is way, way down on my list of things with which to be concerned. Seriously, ISIS never crosses my mind unless there is an article to read.

Divernan

(15,480 posts)
13. Reason to question this pollster and how they framed the questions?
Mon Jun 15, 2015, 10:15 AM
Jun 2015

I agree - re ISIS being low on the list of concerns. My fellow, politically aware and involved senior friends and neighbors are much more concerned about pulling back from military involvement in foreign lands, and how their grandkids will be able to afford college, find decent jobs, pay back student loans, etc.

 

oberliner

(58,724 posts)
14. Question seems pretty straightforward
Mon Jun 15, 2015, 10:24 AM
Jun 2015

Which of the following do you see as the most important issue facing the country right now?

Immigration, Health Care. Federal Deficit, Islamic State, known as ISIS, Jobs and Unemployment, Climate Change, Other (Specify), Don’t Know / No Opinion

Here's the actual survey:

http://morningconsult.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/150601-MC_BTVH-National-Poll-TOPLINE1.pdf

Divernan

(15,480 posts)
17. "Islamic" could have been perceived as a code word for terrorist?
Mon Jun 15, 2015, 10:30 AM
Jun 2015

Even without knowing any facts about ISIS, that word alone may have influenced their choice.

 

oberliner

(58,724 posts)
37. Even so - is terrorism the top concern for American seniors?
Mon Jun 15, 2015, 03:58 PM
Jun 2015

I wouldn't think that it would be, but who knows?

madokie

(51,076 posts)
35. fox noise
Mon Jun 15, 2015, 03:31 PM
Jun 2015

go into the places that old people congregate in and check out the tvs and I think you will find your answer

 

oberliner

(58,724 posts)
38. You may be right about that
Mon Jun 15, 2015, 03:59 PM
Jun 2015

Impressive that they can convince seniors that ISIS ought to be their number one concern.

madokie

(51,076 posts)
39. Not really
Mon Jun 15, 2015, 04:03 PM
Jun 2015

old people are scared with all years now of the talk about ending SS, Medicare and all the cuts to all the different aid programs. Fox noise knows exactly what they're doing and are working off a planned course of action. F them.

 

oberliner

(58,724 posts)
43. Why does Fox News want seniors to be worried about ISIS?
Mon Jun 15, 2015, 04:21 PM
Jun 2015

I am trying to get a sense of what the larger agenda is.

madokie

(51,076 posts)
44. to keep them from worrying about the shit they should be
Mon Jun 15, 2015, 04:24 PM
Jun 2015

to pull wool over their eyes, you know
fox could be honest and tell the news as it really is so why don't they just do that? Huh. Because they have an agenda. pretty simple one at that.

d_legendary1

(2,586 posts)
24. I would have thought that S.S. and Medicare would be the main issues
Mon Jun 15, 2015, 12:40 PM
Jun 2015

affecting seniors. Are times that different or does the polling suck?

 

En Garde

(94 posts)
4. "saddled with an albatross named Barack Obama"
Mon Jun 15, 2015, 08:33 AM
Jun 2015

Who wrote the copy for this never-heard-of-before pollster? That kind of polling bias must please even Roger Ailes. There must be far more reputable polls that you can refer to when trying to point out Hillary's inevitability.

Thinkingabout

(30,058 posts)
26. Do you think the seniors reached their age without wars, some of the WW II, Korean, Vietnam, Desert
Mon Jun 15, 2015, 01:32 PM
Jun 2015

Storm, and others, yes we know about fighting wars.

PADemD

(4,482 posts)
8. Michael Ramlet
Mon Jun 15, 2015, 09:18 AM
Jun 2015

Michael is the founder and CEO of Morning Consult. Before founding the company, Michael spent several years consulting at firms including the Advisory Board Company and Purple Strategies.

http://morningconsult.com/author/michael/

brooklynite

(95,060 posts)
11. So, you DON'T think Bernie wins New Hampshire?
Mon Jun 15, 2015, 09:44 AM
Jun 2015

I admit that's a stretch, considering the NH poll has 11% for Biden who since he has "blood dripping from his hands" will probably have his votes go to Hillary. Otherwise, the IA and SC polls are consistent with national polling which has been consistent for the past year.

brooklynite

(95,060 posts)
32. Your you're saying Bernie Sanders has the organizational and fundraising skill of Barack Obama?
Mon Jun 15, 2015, 02:14 PM
Jun 2015

THAT is a stretch.

Barack Obama didn't win because he was an inspiring figure to people at rallies. He won because he equipped himself with a team that knew how to play hard-ball politics and target specific states to complete in, AND because he had the financial resources needed to do so. So far, Bernie Sanders is doing nothing like that.

 

Elmer S. E. Dump

(5,751 posts)
33. You're one of these that loves to put words in other mouths.
Mon Jun 15, 2015, 02:19 PM
Jun 2015

Not gonna do it.. wouldn't be prudent. Have a great day!!

INdemo

(6,994 posts)
42. Ok but where did he get the bulk of those financial resources?
Mon Jun 15, 2015, 04:19 PM
Jun 2015

The same place as Hillary.Through Wall St. Corporate funding.
Hillary would never ever state how much she has raised so far? (That will be easy enough to find out soon)
Bernie would.

Karl Rove's tactics was to hire a pollster to go out and find Bush friendly samples and make sure that Faux would have the info and even though they only polled 50 people that was legal because they weren't lying it was a poll.

So lets keep taking those daily polls of 40 or 50 voters and see how Hillary is doing.

brooklynite

(95,060 posts)
47. I don't really need to...
Mon Jun 15, 2015, 04:29 PM
Jun 2015

Take into account EVERY poll over the past year or so: left leaning polls like PPP; right leaning polls like Rasmussen, and they all have Hillary Clinton right at 60%:



You know, if you shop around, you might be able to pick up UNSKEWEDPOLLS.COM on the cheap.

 

Indepatriot

(1,253 posts)
10. When does the primary voting start?
Mon Jun 15, 2015, 09:42 AM
Jun 2015

If it's not this Thursday, I do believe it's possible the numbers may be a little different by the time the actual votes are cast.

brooklynite

(95,060 posts)
12. Might be...might not
Mon Jun 15, 2015, 09:45 AM
Jun 2015

Bernie Sanders has been been going up from zero, but Hillary Clinton has not been going down. As long as she stays at 57-60% that doesn't give Bernie a lot room to improve.

peacebird

(14,195 posts)
15. Long time between now and the primaries. Hillary was up pretty high this far out in 08 too.
Mon Jun 15, 2015, 10:28 AM
Jun 2015

I am impressed by the huge crowds turning out for Sanders, and I think it will turn into a very tight race in the end. She haas the big bucks, DNC, and M$M behind her, but Bernie has integrity, passion, and is drawing a devoted following that is taking off like wildfire!

brooklynite

(95,060 posts)
18. ...and has Clinton 54% Sanders 12% in Iowa...
Mon Jun 15, 2015, 10:46 AM
Jun 2015

...which was supposed to be the more liberal voting base.

 

Adrahil

(13,340 posts)
25. If Bernie can't win NH, he has no chance, IMO.
Mon Jun 15, 2015, 01:20 PM
Jun 2015

It's hard to say this far out, but I think he really caps well below 40%, but we'll see. I've been wrong before.

calimary

(81,611 posts)
20. Pollster is from a "center-right" background.
Mon Jun 15, 2015, 10:56 AM
Jun 2015

Michael Ramlet. His bio information is very brief, not really mentioning it so you have to dig deeper. He was involved with something called the "American Action Forum" - which seems to be yet another establishment/foundation/think tank from the cookie cutter industry on the CON side.

Their "experts" are here : http://americanactionforum.org/experts

I went to the first guy on the fairly lengthy list, someone named Sam Batkins, whose background includes the US Chamber of Commerce (CON), the Institute for Legal Reform (CON), and the National Taxpayers Union (CON). That's just the first guy.

The second guy, Carlos Bonilla (why was that name familiar to me - unlike any of the others on the list?) - he was an advisor to george w. dry-drunk.

The third guy, Robert Book, when you dig down past the blather you find he came from the Heritage Foundation.

I decided not to dig through the rest of 'em, at least right now, because I see a trend developing here. Yet ANOTHER wrong-winger outfit. Wonder if they'll specialize in doctoring the details like their friends at "Unskewed Polls" that earnestly tracked the "evidence" that if you REEEEEEALLLY spin the poll numbers and adjust for this and adjust for that, you find that romney is really gonna WIN!

One article I found under the Sam Batkins exploration was...
TESTIMONY March 19, 2015
The Affordable Care Act after Five Years: Wasted Money and Broken Promises

I didn't even have to continue reading after noticing how this article started. Tells me everything I need to know, really.

Therefore - I'd take ANYTHING from this so-called "Morning Consult" as pretty much CON-generated and massaged BUNK. Including the premise that the biggest thing worrying seniors is ISIS. My Ass. Besides, a focus on seniors tells you such a small part of the story anyway. They're not the ones who'll be indicators of who's ahead or who might eventually win. They're a dwindling demographic that almost always skews CONservative. I'd guess their votes may not be enough to outweigh the growing Millennium and Latino demographics.

 

Elmer S. E. Dump

(5,751 posts)
34. Lisa Graham Keegan - RWNJ
Mon Jun 15, 2015, 02:22 PM
Jun 2015

At the 2008 National Republican Convention in St. Paul, Minnesota she was a vice chairman of the Republican Party political platform committee, for which she wrote policy statements on education issues.

rocktivity

(44,588 posts)
21. "Obama Albatross" set off my alarm system, too
Mon Jun 15, 2015, 11:48 AM
Jun 2015

Last edited Mon Jun 15, 2015, 05:10 PM - Edit history (1)

If Obama is an albatross around the neck of the Dem candidates, what are they going to call Dubya -- a pteradactyl?


rocktivity

MADem

(135,425 posts)
23. The Weekly Standard touts them, so I don't think they're without bias.
Mon Jun 15, 2015, 12:17 PM
Jun 2015

They want to goad, bait and damage Clinton in the primaries, which is why they've pushed their NH results forward to show her as "in trouble" in a state that isn't First In the Nation when it comes to electoral votes.

 

NewSystemNeeded

(111 posts)
29. "Wow. Bernie is doing better and will do better than I previously thought."
Mon Jun 15, 2015, 01:55 PM
Jun 2015

Is a whole lot easier than all the aforementioned excuses.

No need to twist into pretzels, people.

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