Seems a bit safer for the entire world's future health, including for the fish in the sea.

Right now, Germany is the world leader with 25 GW of solar online, and it took them the better part of 3 decades to get there. Any fast-track program to replace the reactors with solar and wind will still take a decade or more to build out. You also have to expand transmission lines to carry the power of, say, mountainside or offshore wind turbines to the grid. The costs will be staggering, especially for a country already reeling under restrained economic growth due to power cuts and a $100-million/DAY tab for imported coal and natural gas to run formerly mothballed powerplants to keep the lights on.

That's not an argument against doing it. It MUST be done, costs be damned, or the country will not survive long-term. However, it won't be easy, it won't be cheap, and it sure as hell won't be fast. Sooner or later (probably sooner if Japan has a hot summer), they will have to restart at least some of their reactors, public sentiment be damned.

What you wrote is an attempt to justify nuclear (which you strongly support) and it has nothing to do with the actual problem.

First, Noda is claiming they need to restart 2 reactors, not 48GW worth.

Second, it didn't take Germany 30 years to install their renewable base - they started in earnest only 14 years ago concentrating on wind, and most of the capacity has been installed in the last 5.

As for solar, of the 25GW in place, they installed 7.5GW in 2011 alone, and are on track to add another 8GW this year.

They want to restart the nuclear plants to set a precedent allowing them to restart most if not all of their fleet of reactors. Their 'nuclear village' simply doesn't want to take the financial loss, no matter the risk to the rest of the country. It has dick-all to do with actual necessity, maintaining the quality of life or national security.

Yes, Noda says they need to restart 2 reactors. I never argued that they will restart all of them:

"Sooner or later (probably sooner if Japan has a hot summer), they will have to restart at least some of their reactors"

Secondly, Germany has been working on their renewable energy base for the past 3 decades: https://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&q=cache:KooCWxI3iFIJ:www.wind-works.org/FeedLaws/Germany/Three%2520decades%2520of%2520renewable%2520electricity%2520policy%2520in%2520Germany.doc+&hl=en&gl=us&pid=bl&srcid=ADGEESjLs8sLIWBo21NU961kE2mA_R52UqjIaCnk3DgrQjHb-_Pflvk8HHzqU76VOhMsO2GI6M8lciy3mKV1-faWORaSrUxSHC0v97i14gttLRo4MdLQszAIeOhIPv9Ef1rlP5xQtMwY&sig=AHIEtbTH46DTTFBoY4mwL_ox74WQmt9nLg

You are right that they only started in earnest on installation in the past 14 years; the first 15 were devoted primarily to R&D, which luckily Japan won't have to worry much about. That's why I stated that it will likely take them much less time to build out a large renewables base:

"Any fast-track program to replace the reactors with solar and wind will still take a decade or more to build out."

At a rate of 7GW per year, it will take Japan 7 years to replace their nuclear nameplate capacity. That would be a tremendous accomplishment, but if Japan gets an abnormally hot summer or abnormally cold winter in the next few years, they won't be able to just wait for the renewables build-out to be completed. Also, they will need to deal with the issue of running transmission capacity through the country. This is something that's already slowing Germany's push to build out their renewables base further.

And that's not even taking capacity factors into account, which I know drives you nuts when mentioned

The PM has made a very specific assertion in the OP and your post has nothing to do with the problem he claims to be addressing. The hurdle is less than 2GW, an amount that could be installed with wind, solar and geothermal in one year or less if they are truly serious about the power supply.



But they aren't really interested in all possible paths to preventing power shortages - they are interested in using the threat of blackouts as a means of coercing the public into accepting the restart of the reactors.

Support our nuclear industry. We have the ability to destroy the world.

but which WAS posted in TIME:

The government issued new safety guidelines in April to address residents’ worries. In response, Kansai Electric Power Co. submitted its safety plans for two reactors at the plant, saying the full upgrades will take up to three years.

Some of the most crucial measures to secure cooling functions and prevent meltdowns as in Fukushima were installed, but more than one-third of the necessary upgrades on the list are still incomplete.

Filtered vents that could substantially reduce radiation leaks in case of an accident threatening an explosion,
a radiation-free crisis management building and fences to block debris washed up by a tsunami won’t be ready until 2015.

This means the plant, as well as plant workers and residents, won’t be fully protected from radiation leaks in case of a Fukushima-class crisis.

http://world.time.com/2012/06/08/japan-pm-nuke-reactors-must-be-restarted/?iid=gs-article-latest

live on an island with volcanoes.

It seems like a remarkable story, getting along without all those reactors. It would be interesting to get a complete account.

Except here, all of Honshu got blasted and has been made to feel bad for getting in the way.