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TomCADem

(17,390 posts)
Tue Jul 19, 2016, 12:35 AM Jul 2016

Poll: Trump gaining on Clinton nationally

Source: USA Today

CLEVELAND — As Republicans gather at their party’s convention this week, they can also celebrate a new poll that has their presumptive nominee gaining nationally.

A Monmouth University poll has Hillary Clinton just 3 points ahead of Donald Trump with registered voters nationally and 2 points ahead of those surveyed who are most likely to vote in November. Those numbers fall within the margin of error.

Forty-three percent of registered voters said they supported Clinton, and 40% said they backed Trump. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson had 5% and the Green Party’s Jill Stein had 2%, while 2% backed someone else entirely.

* * *
Trump can celebrate the bump. Last month, Clinton held a 6-point lead among registered voters and a 7-point lead with likely November voters.

Read more: http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/onpolitics/2016/07/18/monmouth-poll-trump-gaining-clinton-nationally/87250588/



The first day of the convention has victims of crimes committed by undocumented immigrants, condemnations of BLM protestors, and the a schedule that will also turn to Muslims. Basically the GOP loves America more than you do, they just hate everyone who is in it. It is Nixon's 1968 law and order campaign despite the fact that secession and in vogue in the GOP just a few months ago.
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Poll: Trump gaining on Clinton nationally (Original Post) TomCADem Jul 2016 OP
Dead cat bounce CanonRay Jul 2016 #1
FWIW Monmouth is one of the best pollsters in the country Angel Martin Jul 2016 #2
Damn we Hillary supporters should have voted for someone else! cosmicone Jul 2016 #3
I'm trying to obnoxiousdrunk Jul 2016 #4
Please.... rtracey Jul 2016 #10
Time-out! Misleading. Trump AND Clinton's numbers went up compared to last month. RAFisher Jul 2016 #5
Good catch! SunSeeker Jul 2016 #6
Nice explanation. Statistical Jul 2016 #15
Until After Both Conventions, No Poll is Worth a Damn Wolf Frankula Jul 2016 #7
Who knows what tomorrow brings, ha ha! sofa king Jul 2016 #8
And 3 other as well respected polls had her widening her lead. Talk to me in a month. nt broadcaster75201 Jul 2016 #9
Nate Silver, the only one I listen to in regards to poll #'s. sarcasmo Jul 2016 #11
This is what I find so confusing ... Delphinus Jul 2016 #12
has to do with the state polls and electoral college, versus national polls Fast Walker 52 Jul 2016 #13
NBC says it is tied Fast Walker 52 Jul 2016 #14
 

rtracey

(2,062 posts)
10. Please....
Tue Jul 19, 2016, 12:14 PM
Jul 2016

Come on.. Convention.... Plagiarism...... VP pick....... Christie sad.......... wait until after the Democratic convention......

RAFisher

(466 posts)
5. Time-out! Misleading. Trump AND Clinton's numbers went up compared to last month.
Tue Jul 19, 2016, 01:43 AM
Jul 2016

It compared the Monmouth poll with last month's. Just from looking at the surface I'd guess less support for Johnson and more GOP getting in line.

July
Clinton -45%
Trump - 43%
Johnson - 5%
Stein -1%

June
Clinton - 44%
Trump - 37%
Johnson - 9%
Stein - 4%

http://www.monmouth.edu/MonmouthPoll_US_071816/

Statistical

(19,264 posts)
15. Nice explanation.
Tue Jul 19, 2016, 03:43 PM
Jul 2016

It makes sense to. Come election day Johnson and Stein aren't getting 15% of the vote. They will be lucky to split 3%. The early polls always show improbable support for third party candidates.

Wolf Frankula

(3,605 posts)
7. Until After Both Conventions, No Poll is Worth a Damn
Tue Jul 19, 2016, 02:40 AM
Jul 2016

I used to work in polling and market research and I know. Polls and surveys are written for various reasons, to make news, to float or sink an idea, to plant an idea or product in the public consciousness. Seldom are they written to find the truth.

Wolf

sofa king

(10,857 posts)
8. Who knows what tomorrow brings, ha ha!
Tue Jul 19, 2016, 02:55 AM
Jul 2016

Few things can change minds faster than ridicule. That convention was a total disaster and they're lucky Michelle Obama stole the show, because the rest of it is a comedic monument to stupidity, too.

Delphinus

(11,848 posts)
12. This is what I find so confusing ...
Tue Jul 19, 2016, 02:18 PM
Jul 2016

Another post says Clinton has a 76% chance of winning - yet this story says differently. Huh?

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