I wouldn't be surprised if it is being done through North Korea.

What seems to be "off limits" for certain sanctions has been the energy sector (oil/LNG) because Europe is still getting that from Russia and obviously China and India have been as well).

The ships which are delivering the oil are being sanctioned too.
This may be affecting China as well.

Russia is hurting.

If you get a chance to watch some of the Joe Bloggs videos here on DU
he spells it all out in detail.

plus Russia has slowly gotten rid of their discounts and recently agreed to cuts to maintain the OPEC+ cuts while the U.S. is doing record-breaking production. That has pretty much sent India to the U.S. to buy oil.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143174614
https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143203120
https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143209411
https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143219965


We have been trying to refill the reserves - https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143211227 although the latest instability in the ME sparked oil price increases above the threshold of buying oil to refill.

And will step that up in the next year.

Russia has a problem with revenue right now and it will get worse.

At some point, the production cuts for higher prices are not going to net enough for either Russia or Saudi (or some of the other OPEC2+ countries) to maintain their financial situations as that is their prime income.

Once you start cutting back oil production it is not easy to gear back up even under good conditions.

But Russia is experiencing substantial damage to the refineries due to the Ukrainian drone attacks, which shuts down the whole refinery, not just part of it.

The US sanctions also mean the repair is not easy or even an option.
The US corporations used to provide help and that is no longer the case.
I don't know if Russia even has access to equipment parts.

Then when the refinery oil workers are laid off, not working, they are probably not paid,
so that means there is less spending in the Russian economy.

So Russia is taking quite a hit right now.
It may make Putin think about negotiating?

because he won't honor any deals. If he's allowed to recover, he'll do it again. He long ago should have dropped the invasion as too costly but he has shown himself incapable of that kind of judgement.

Only 3 things can stop the invasion: an utter exhaustion of resources to fight, Putin's overthrow or his death.
The first we can influence and your post makes me hopeful. Then we have to hope that as a cornered snake, he won't resort to nukes.
There second is a longshot the third up to chance.

The situation is getting dicey for Putin right now money wise.

Ukraine has switched its strategy to solely fighting a ground war to destroying
Putin's revenue stream which funds the war. It is a very clever strategy.

Putin has been pretending the drone hits are not a big concern but he is lying.
There are economic indicators which indicate that the Russian economy is taking a
big hit. The US sanctions are working as well.

Also Ukraine is buying a huge amount of European drones for the coming year.
This news has been made public.
Which is putting more pressure on Putin.

Most military strategists insist that Putin will never resort to nukes.
Russia would be destroyed.

At some point Putin has to start making some decisions.
The worse the economy gets, the more apt he is to lose power
or be killed. So he may have to negotiate a peace.
But yes it would only be temporary.

Putin is hell bent on being a 21st century global superpower and he
will not let go of that dream easily. But if he has to chose between that dream
and staying in power and staying alive he will chose the latter.

But my fear is that if he thinks all is lost he'll choose slash and burn and take the rest of the world with him.
Like Hitler, Like Trump--no one else matters.
My hope is that there remain people close to him who would rather live when he wouldn't, and will do something about it. But that would give a conscience and intelligence to people around him and i doubt any of those are left.

They are too self centered and think the world cannot live without them.

Putin is said to be the richest man in the world, worth at least $300 billion.
And he is an old dyed in the wool KGB agent. I think it is safe to assume
he has hidey holes all over the planet and sold extraction plans if it comes to that.

It is also said he has a rock solid loyal inner guard who will take care of him.
He has paid them handsomely in terms of salary, homes, gifts, etc.

However if nukes start flying, all bets are off. Even the most loyal guard
has nothing to lose if his family has been nuked to oblivion.

I also think Putin would have fantasies of returning to Russia at some point.
So he might not destroy it.

You have me a little optimistic about the nukes.

At least that is what the US retired Colonel and Generals keep saying.

Psychologically it makes sense.

Putin only cares about himself, money and power.
His source of revenue are the oil fields in Russia.
Certainly the US has its nukes aimed right at Moscow and the oil fields.

Putin's fantasy, along with China, is being the 21st century global superpower.
With the US and Europe downgraded to lesser powers.

If Putin nukes the world, that dream is dead?
He doesn't want to let go of that dream.

Also his strong ally China has made it clear they want no nukes.

China is in a very dire financial bind, Xi has pretty much ruined the economy
to the point the Chinese people don't trust him and won't spend any money now.
The only source of revenue are the foreign markets. Which will be worthless if they are nuked.

Putin is evil, but he is not stupid. Make no mistake, if it helped him he would nuke the world.
But I don't see how it would benefit him, only hurt him.

That is my thinking at this point.

as we give them credit for. They can't really see what is good for them in the long run which is why they are in their current bind.

But they at least look a few chess moves into the future unlike Trump who is a loose cannon, and would send off a nuke just to pay back an insult wihtout any concept of repercussions.

YOur thinking is quite logical and informed. Thank you.

However they have some major deficits in their judgement.

Xi has totally screwed up the Chinese economy and keeps making it worse.
At the same time he ramps up his military and threatens all his neighbors.
He pretends the South China Sea belongs to him. And he will fight for it.

Just like Putin claims parts of Europe belong to him and he is fighting for it.

Both Russia and China now have economies taking a big nose dive.
But keep spending more and more money on their militaries despite a big drop in revenue.

China is pissing off the world by dumping cheap goods on foreign markets.
And angering Asia with its aggressive stance.
Putin of course has pissed off the world with the Ukraine invasion.

Just doesn't seem the right way to take over the world does it?

Force, not persuasion. The world exists to serve their desires, everyone else's be darned. only they matter and they don't see what's wrong with that. It boggles my mind.

It doesn't occur to them to kiss people into compliance.
Kicking is the only way to get what they want.

They rose to power in their respective countries with brutal and deadly force.
They rule with iron fists and tolerate no dissension whatsoever.

So they assume this is a winning strategy.

They don't take into account that modern, liberal democracies may need
to be seduced not threatened.

I guess I should not say that. Putin obviously seduced an entire political party in the US.
And has his puppets installed across Europe too. By bribing them.
And social media propaganda has been very successful.

So you see, buying puppets across western democracies and using propaganda
to turn the people into Russian colonists is easer, cheaper and more successful than nukes.

But i don't equate propaganda lies to kissing people into--I would say agreement, not compliance which also implies force.

Putin could have joined Europe and had a thriving country, and gotten credit for it. He could have lived a nice life without constant fear surrounded by guards. Problem is he couldn't have ruled forever.
Once he cooked up the Chechnia scheme, he had to stay in power because someone would have found out and someone would have killed him by now. Once you go down this road, there's no way out.

The manipulation of others by telling them what they want to hear.
Or being given money and gifts.
Then there is a willing compliance.

Yes Putin could have joined Europe, made nice with everyone.
Sold his oil to the entire world and would have been even richer than he is now.

He had it made. President for life, iron grip on Russia, access to all Russian resources.
He was just a mobboss with oil wells but the world pretended he was a legit leader
because of his wealth and oil.

But that was not enough for Putin, he blamed the US for the breakup of the USSR, and vowed revenge as a young KGB agent. So his goal has been to destroy western democracies.
And Russia replacing the US as the global superpower.

Putin's narcissism, sociopathy and ideology gives him a blind spot. He cannot admit the USSR was a failed nation due to its own making.

Same thing with China. Xi keeps pouring $trillions into failed industries, spending on totally redundant urban infrastructure which provides no revenue or value. The Chinese people refuse to spend after Covid and a series of economic disasters. World and Chinese economists keep telling Xi there is a solution to his problem. Start helping the Chinese people, make them feel more secure financially and that will give him a world class economy.

But Xi cannot do it. Ideology prevents him from helping people. It will lead to laziness, etc.
There is also a seep seated dislike and resentment of the west, and a belief in Chinese superiority.

So you see, psychopathology and ideology prevent smart people from making good choices.

and lead to their ultimate failure.

People with healthy psychology don't want to be dictators.

Some might call them psychopaths.

Their economy is tanking as it is.
They cannot afford any more hits.

Their economy is tanking, the Chinese people are no longer buying Chinese goods because they
don't trust the Chinese government or economy. And the Chinese local governments have $trillions in debt.
The housing market as well.

So China factories are forced to rely on the international market, including the US to sell their goods.
Starting to sanction the international or US markets is a bad move, a very bad move.

reportedly owning approximately $859.4 billion in US debt.