Haley doesn’t cave and endorse him in the end.

And maybe Mitt Romney, but knowing Republicans I wouldn't bet on it.

And I expect that even if Haley turned around and decided to endorse "the top of the ticket" (and note he hasn't picked a VP yet), she seems to have a good chunk of voters who wanted her or no one else, and they would just assume leave the top of the ticket blank.

A "danger" would be if he actually considered picking her as a VP and she accepted, but even then, there is a chunk who have soured on 45.

only thing they want, without restrictions.

Running and losing a Veep race is generally a career ending move, and I don't think Nikki's liking the odds. As Sarah Palin how her career ended and she didn't run with a lunatic.

She might give a half assed endorsement, but she'll keep her powder dry for next time. She's still young.

a hope to get the women vote, though her position on abortion is no different than his.

let me know if the MSM talks about the Pa. primary vote.

Well; it was noted on Morning Joe this morning; of course they rarely spend more than 60 seconds on an issue and then there is the typical four and a half minutes of ads (nine 30 second ads on crap).

to not become Ohio.

McCormack has been flooding the air waves with campaign ads. This will be a true test for Pa. Dems. I can't wait to vote in the general.

By the bye, I live among the Magats here in central Pa.

very red and still signs for d45- head shaker~

I believe Bob Casey still has a good chance of getting re-elected in November. It would be a major blow if he lost to McCormack. For now we need to dwell on getting out the vote and convincing the independent voters (we have a lot of them in PA) to side with Democrats. They're already turning against Chump, as are many Repukes.

I'm confident that Chump has no chance to win Pennsylvania in November. Let's hope he also hurts the down-ticket candidates. The biggest threat of the down-ticket is Dave McCormack because he can almost disavow Chump without really saying so. McCormack has never been tainted by the stink of Chump.

... but we've seen voters going against their own interests before.

I was an independent voter for many years, but I always voted with the Democrats. I didn't actually register as a Dem until 2008 when I wanted to vote for Hillary in the primary. It's not for lack of engagement that some prefer to remain politically independent.

Nt

and THAT is something that is important to PAers as you know!

That is what did Oz in and it also did Frothy (Santorum) in after it was discovered that his children were not even living in or going to school in PA despite him claiming their residency here.

He's probably not a bad guy, and he's not beholden to Chump - so that's a good thing. But he is a Repuke through and through. We don't like our Senators to be Repukes, whether they live here or not.

I'm fine with Bob Casey and I want to see him win another term.

If you are going to be a "business type" here in PA, you have to be like former Gov. Wolf and be born in a town named for your namesakes ancestor. Wolf was completely unknown here in SE PA yet he captured everyone's heart as being "authentic". There's nothing about McCormick, let alone barely any GOPers, that exudes "authentic".

and the media had already assumed that we were a deep red state.

I'm hoping we can ditch the last Republican in a SE PA Congressional district - Bryan Fitzpatrick in PA-1 (basically all of Bucks County, which was invaded by those Turds of Liberty women, who were subsequently run out of office at their next election ).

without PA?

Pennsylvania is far more important to Biden than Trump.

If Trump wins back Georgia and Arizona, two states he's winning in according to the polls, he would just need to win Wisconsin he can win without carrying Pennsylvania or Michigan.

If Biden loses Pennsylvania, he'll have to win Arizona, Michigan, Nevada and Wisconsin. Or win back Georgia and North Carolina + one more state from the ones I listed.

Doable but not very likely.

So PA is likely a must-win for Biden. Not as much for Trump.

Looks like a lot of the new registrations signed up to vote against their candidate.

Like other places that I hear anecdotally reported about, there are people who register GOP so they can vote for the "lesser of 2 evil Republicans". I know over here in SE PA 30+ and more years ago, Democrats in many suburban and rural towns pretty much had to register (R) or they would not only not receive municipal services but would be harassed with citations and whatnot. That eventually started to change but now there is a new dynamic where at general election time, there is this shock about a "cross-over vote".

👏🇺🇸😎👍

When it's all said and done, Biden and Trump aren't going to do that differently in Pennsylvania.

Currently, 123,000 Democratic primary voters in PA have voted for someone other than Biden (Phillips + write-in).

Biden is doing about five-points better (88% to 83%) tha Trump there.

A small advantage but not a massive one, especially since it'll likely tighten even more as results come in as Trump has won the outstanding vote by huge numbers and there's still 5% of the vote left to count on both sides. My guess is that the difference is only four-points at the end of the day.

When the "polls" (pure guesses) keep showing a 45 lead in a 1% - 3% horse race and ACTUAL RESULTS show 4% - 5% Biden lead in a swing state that Biden won by a little over 1% in 2020 and that 45 won by LESS THAN 1% in 2016, then what does that say?

At least anything recent. So, you're really comparing apples and oranges here.

Are you just "assuming" or did you bother to go look any up?

538 has downloadable spreadsheets of various elections including one called "Presidential Primary Election (current cycle)" as a drop-down here - https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

Hint - there are 236 poll entries for PA for this primary done over the past 2 years (the primary pollsters have been Quinnipeac, Morning Consult. Franklin and Marshall, Susquehanna Polling & Research, and Public Policy Polling here in this state)

Have at it before talking about "apples and oranges".

Maybe you should before responding.

But let me help you:

Here is a list of Republican primary polls of Pennsylvania that you sent me:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/pennsylvania/

The last Republican primary poll from Pennsylvania I see was from November...2022.

That's what a year and a half ago? Don't you think that fits into the whole "at least anything recently"?

So my point stands: these are apple and oranges comparisons. They're not really relevant to the actual polling of the head-to-head because they're not head-to-head results. Biden was not facing Trump in this vote - he was facing Phillips and write-in. Conversely, Trump was not facing Biden. He was facing Haley.

So, unless you're talking primary polls, which there hasn't been one since 2022, the margin between what Biden got in his primary and what Trump got in his has nothing to do with the actual margins of the general election polling. Again, apples and oranges.

Hope that helps.

This is where I downloaded the spreadsheet (you have to scroll down to towards the bottom). Its not just "Republican Primary" data.



There were a recent set of polls done on these dates for Pennsylvania.



Here is a screenshot of it sorted with the most recent polls shown were done this past February -




You have no point but maybe try a different subject.

You seem overly confused by what the word recent. Do you not know what that word means?

You keep ignoring the part of my post that there has not been any recent primary polls out of Pennsylvania. This isn't difficult.

I bolded the part about recent polls just in case you're interested.

You're showing me data from the end of January to the very first week of February. How is that recent?

It's the end of April. The last poll you have is from February 4th.

That's basically three months ago, when Haley was still in the race.

Again: not sure why you're discussing primary polls when there hasn't been one done in months.

Apples to oranges.

they are not done as frequently (or with as many polled) as the "national" polls.

You insisted there WERE NO POLLS done for the primary. I just showed you that the latest polls were done just a couple months ago and you are still stuck on 2022.

Just stop. It's apparent you are new to this.

You're comparing outdated primary polls, done months ago when Haley was still an active candidate, to actual results that are not even head-to-head results (comparing the polling error seen in some primary polls to the margin between the vote total Biden received among Democrats to what Trump received among Republicans). That isn't an apples to apples comparison. That's all I said. You're trying to use polling error to make the point that because Biden did four-points better among Democrats than Trump did among Republicans that it'll somehow translate into head-to-head numbers because of previous primary polling and you can't do that.

The reality is that these primaries indicate what the polls indicate: Pennsylvania is likely a very close state between Biden and Trump.

But as I've said in other posts: primaries are NOT general elections and you shouldn't really try to use primary data as evidence of anything other than what it is: a primary.

In 2020, Biden received 3,461,221 votes in Pennsylvania. Right now he's at 928,081. That's what, 27% of his 2020 total?

That means 73% of those who voted Biden in 2020 didn't vote in this primary.

Which is why you shouldn't take these numbers, either way, as a big deal. They're not comparable to general election numbers. It's not relevant. That's it. Trump winning 84% of the GOP primary is not a big enough difference than Biden winning 88%. If Trump had stayed at 75%, I'd be more inclined to agree ... but the results are likely to be fairly close to one another.

The only takeaway that I can see as reasonable would be that it looks like more Democrats voted than Republicans. But without knowing how the 12% of Democrats who voted for someone other than Biden will vote (or the same with the 16% Haley supporters), you still don't have much information to make a case either way.

Um no.



Again, you claimed there were none done at all so now you have backpedaled and are claiming that a 2-month old poll is "outdated".

You still don't get the fact that even for the general election, the "state polls" are not as frequent as the "national polls" so you continue to go down a rabbit hole of completely missing the point of what is happening. You are NOT going to get daily or weekly or even monthly "state polls". Period. Polls are useless at this point just as they were useless in 2022 when they claimed that Fetterman was losing to Oz when Fetterman ended up beating him by 4%.





The fact that despite no longer running but people STILL voting for Haley at over TWICE the number of those who voted for Philips (who is no longer running) instead of Biden, should give you a clue.



You are looking at a primary that had something like a 28% turnout (about the same as 2020). PA is a "closed primary" state so unaffiliated/independents CANNOT vote for major party candidates. You also have this idiotic situation where the candidates were already "decided" before PA even had chance to vote, which is why over the past several Presidential election cycles, you have seen states jockeying to be earlier and earlier. PA had actually intended to try to move our primary to the March "Super Tuesday" date - especially because Passover started this week, but the legislature was too late getting something passed to do that this year.

Sometimes you need to see the "forest for the trees". You have exaggerated an outcome that was never claimed anywhere.



Let me give you DATA. This is from the PA state election results page and I posted this downthread - https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1014&pid=3230627

(with my post there quoted below)



Having 140,000 MORE Democrats voting for Biden than Republicans voting for 45 in this primary, IS BIG NEWS. It is showing an "enthusiasm gap", with a lower enthusiasm coming from the GOP side.

Having PA Democrats gain 12 state House seats in 2022, which allowed us to take control of that Chamber, was NOT forecast "in the polls", FAR from it.

Ignore the polls and look at the actual voter data.

You are outright making things up. I never claimed there was no polling for the primary. Your fixation on this, your blatant disingenuous take on this, tells me you're not in this to argue in good-faith.

What you said here is not true:

I never claimed that. You are making things up. I never backpedaled . How can I backpedal on something when it was in my original post to begin with?



Literally from my first reply to you. Literally. Right there. It wasn't added later. I never backtracked on my point. I said in my initial post that there were no recent polls. You've yet to show me a recent poll.

End of story. End of discussion. If you're going to refuse to read the whole post, I will do the same with you. I read nothing after your total lie that I claimed that there were none done at all. I never made such claim. You can reply. I will not read it because it's clear you don't have any intention in reading anything I say and make things up.

And I'll post it one last time so you can see it again - I'll even link to it just in case you get lost:

https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1014&pid=3230432



At least anything recent.
At least anything recent.
At least anything recent.
At least anything recent.
At least anything recent.
At least anything recent.
At least anything recent.
At least anything recent.
At least anything recent.
At least anything recent.
At least anything recent.
At least anything recent.
At least anything recent.
At least anything recent.
At least anything recent.
At least anything recent.
At least anything recent.
At least anything recent.
At least anything recent.

Literally in my first post that you claim I said definitively that there were no primary polls. I added in the body of the text, in the same post, at least anything recent. And it was true. You have shown that by linking to polls from months ago.

At least anything recent.
At least anything recent.
At least anything recent.

Now do you get it?

Have a good one. I will not be reading anymore of your replies.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1014&pid=3230432





It's right there in your reply title to my post. Imagine that.



You include screen-shots of your original intent and you were called on it. I linked to your original post.

And you neglected to include this additional post digging deeper into the hole. I wonder why?

https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1014&pid=3230461


(highlight mine)

You didn't bother to scroll down the page of the link I sent and instead fixated on the "2022" polls that were the default and used that for your flippant argument, which allowed you to backpedal off the "no polls done" and consider that as proof by assuming that was the last one done.

I pointed you to where the spreadsheet was that included 200+ entries of polls done FOR THE PA 2024 PRIMARY over the past 2 years including some done just a couple months ago.



Sorry but your argument just falls flat.

check the vote by county. Biden got 90%+ in both Allegheny and Philadelphia county. But, look at the red counties, there was a significant "not Biden" vote. Biden cannot afford to lose the votes of these Dems. Biden's campaign needs to figure out what message these voters were sending. He might be smart to send Fetterman out as a surrogate in these counties.

My Journal (where Journals were turned off after the DU4 update to fix some things) is filled with screenshots from there.

But the PROBLEM is that the media refuse to report on the "NOT 45" vote. THAT is what this whole OP is about.

The "NOT 45" VOTE is coming out to be MORE THAN the "NOT BIDEN' vote.

As you know, Biden DOUBLED the difference between himself and 45 in 2020 (82,000 in 2020 vs 44,000 in 2016) -



Instead of Democrats whining and moaning over bullshit like they did buying into the "Red Tsunami" mess in 2022, we just need to make sure we have our GOTV machine ready to go.

... but you said it better (and more clearly).

Since 2022 the "not Chumps" are definitively outnumbering the "not Bidens."
It's obvious here in Pennsylvania, but also across the country.

You can't really say that Biden is leading by five points with that comparison.

Biden got 88% of the votes from Democratic Primary voters.
Trump got 85% of the votes from Republican Primary voters.

There are different numbers in those two groups - so Biden got 88% of 997,805 and Trump got 83% of 945,882. The raw numbers favor Biden even more. Democrats outnumber Republicans for registered voters in PA, so you would expect that.

Also, it looks to me like Biden is getting more like 93% of the Democratic vote:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/04/23/us/elections/results-pennsylvania-primary.html

I realize you weren't the one coming up with these percentages or even making the "doing about five-points better" claim. I was responding to you because you asked the question "what does this say?"

I would say that on the surface it says Biden is going to do well in PA, and once you dig into the numbers and use the correct statistics it looks even better.

that based on the election that we just had here in PA yesterday, there was a BIG "protest vote" on the GOP side, that has been consistent with almost every state that has had a primary so far with Haley somewhere on the ticket, where she has received somewhere around 10% - 16% of the GOP primary vote.

I.e., these are people who did NOT vote for 45.

Meanwhile the media has generally IGNORED THIS and instead focused on the "uncommitted" or "Bob" or Phillips vote that has generally been (on average), at 10% or less, in order to garner misplaced FUD.

This type of FUD happened in 2022 when Democrats rushed to "save" Patty Murray in WA, going by "polls" that proclaimed she was almost tied with her GOP opponent and it was BULLSHIT. But Democrats diverted money from OTHER races to solidify what eventually became a BLOWOUT by her -

And yes I agree that we are fine so far. We just need to make sure to GOTV for the general.

Nearly 12% of Pennsylvania Democrats voted for someone other than Biden.

You can't use Haley pulling in 16% as proof Trump is in trouble and then ignore the 12% on Biden's side who voted someone other than Biden.

Either these results means both are in trouble - or neither are in trouble because the end results for both Biden and Trump aren't likely to be all that different (maybe within four-points).

This idea that Republicans are abandoning Trump in droves just doesn't wash. Or we have to concede Democrats are abandoning Biden too because there have been plenty of states, including Michigan (18.9), Wisconsin (11.4) and Minnesota (28) where 10+% of voters voted for someone other than Biden.

The reality is that trying to use primary data to prove some type of trend for the general election is often pointless. You're comparing apples to oranges as I said in another post.

- https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1014&pid=3230518

The whole POINT of this OP is to take the blinders off the fact that 45 is NOT somehow immune because THAT is how the media has played it. And when this is pointed out, as usual, Democrats run in screaming to say NO WE ARE THE ONES IN TROUBLE.

It's BULLSHIT.

And no one said that "Republicans are abandoning him in droves". You don't need "droves".

When Biden flipped PA back in 2020, he got almost TWICE AS MANY VOTES (82,000) as a delta between him and 45 than 45 did (44,000) between himself and Clinton in 2016. I.e., there was an almost 130,000 vote flip.

Don't believe the hype.

Trump barely did worse than Biden in his primary and yet everyone is jumping for joy in this thread like it somehow means he's bleeding out support.

The reality is that if we're setting parameters on what constitutes bad showings, we're also adding Biden to that list because there have been a handful of states - including some important ones - where he's faced a fairly sizable opposing vote.

My point? I think people are reading too much into the primaries. They're not relevant. They don't prove anything. Trump likely winning Pennsylvania with 84% means nothing more or less than Biden winning it with 88%.

And if you think Trump received a huge vote against him, you've got to concede Biden kinda did too. 123,757 Democrats so far have voted for someone other than Biden. 157,136 Republicans voted for someone other than Trump. Not that dissimilar. If it's a problem for Trump, it's a problem for Biden.

But I don't think it's relevant either way.

That's it. And using primaries as 'gotcha' kinda narratives I think can go both ways. Trust me. I didn't like it when the media ran up the flag pole this idea that Biden was dead to rights in Michigan because 145,000 Michigan Democrats voted for someone other than Biden.

The MSM media narratives have NEVER been "consistent". They continually focus on who would take votes away from Biden and ignore who would take votes away from 45.

It was to the point where they insisted, all the way up until about last week, that "Bob" (RFK Jr), despite being antivax and sympathizing with the J6 insurrectionists (which would attract 45-followers, is a case in point) would pull votes from Biden. They finally conceded that the opposite would happen.



And MY POINT has been to look at what was pounded out by the pundits over the past couple election cycles about "enthusiasm". And when it comes to the GOP and what is obviously a waning enthusiasm like in yesterday's election here in PA, that is ignored. But they will pummel any Democrat that had such a result.



Not sure where you are getting the numbers but here are the results here in PA (screenshot below taken earlier today) - https://www.electionreturns.pa.gov/



68,564 voted "against Biden" (and for Phillips) here in PA, NOT "123,757".
157,126 voted "against 45" (and for Haley) here in PA.



It's not "it" when you have a different set of numbers than the state of PA has on its website. The numbers have updated a bit since the screenshot was taken (by a couple hundred votes) but not enough to come up with you claim. Remember that PA is a "closed primary" state so no "unaffiliated" can vote in our primary.

They keep trying to tell the same old election as a horse race. A model demands nearly equivalent candidates along with significant threat to the incumbent. They also thrive on proclaiming threat to the established political hierarchy, which posits a change from whatever is presumed to be SOP.
They are more wrong than they can admit.

Not just talking about PA here, it's the entire country. Chump lost 4 years ago, and many Repukes will no longer vote for him. Maybe they aren't saying it out loud, but they don't want him back in the White House. He's bad for the country and he's tearing us apart. Even the Repukes can see that. He has no new followers, and he's lost many voters since 2020. How can anyone think Chump has a chance to win in November?

It's all media bullshit 24/7/365. Think about how many died of Covid in 2020 and the last couple years. That's a lot of people who won't be voting for Chump. Plus their family members and friends, who mainly blame Chump.

Besides that, Joe Biden is doing a great job! Incumbents of either party almost always win re-election when the economy is good. All the unhappiness we're hearing about is the Repukes because they don't have a decent candidate, and they won't have one until Chump finally croaks or goes to prison.

This is a good year to be a Democrat.

Nikki Haley is as bad an actor as Trump. She doesn't come off so flamboyantly on camera so the point is easier to miss. Based on her decisions, especially regarding her responses as she bounces off the guardrails of her chosen path's journey, I see an equally narcissistic personality. It actually bothers me when I hear of or see her discussed as a political heavyweight, possibly an actual presidential candidate, a serious contender. She is easier to normalize, importantly, for the media and that spells, easier to poll, easier to campaign, easier to vote for, thus elect, ultimately easier to spin into a legitimate world leader.

Only the stupid 35%, aided by the demented 14%, of the electorate squatted Trump onto the golden potty chair of the Oval Office. She can be a much more likely candidate to parlay the squirrelly 2%, the impulse-buying/low-info voting/"swinging" faction, into a sound Republican win in 2028, the win Trump couldn't pull off.

The worthies K. Harris or G. Newsom must become our national heroes every moment until then or that ....................... boys and girls, will be how civilization ended.

But it is telling that some media sources would have their readers believe it.

........and, no, Trump was/is never a political heavyweight, but his egomania (and America's fascination with it) was fed as much by bottom line media feeding as by any perverse fantasy from his terminally lost psyche.

Lesson from it all:
American voters will respond in a predictable pattern to whatever the various media pours into and pollutes their conscious, as well as sub-conscious, minds and environments. The media "spigot and funnel" is high-rent hardware, that's why it takes a LOT of money to win a high-profile political contest. That's why it always a sure bet that, in a two-party race, the candidate noticeably behind in campaign funding never wins the race for the Whitehouse. The result of a third-party competitor is simply to make the contest cheaper for one of the other two.

from moderates, independents, and the young since the very FIRST time he lost the popular vote.


Rocknation

Link to tweet

It means these voters will not vote for Chump in November. Either they'll stay home and not vote, or they'll go to the polls in November and leave the top slot blank. Or maybe a useless write-in for Pres.

We shouldn't assume they'll switch to Biden, because they probably won't. As long as we GET THE VOTE OUT in November, Biden will win big. I hope and pray that the independents are planning to help us this year.

trump has been flying at between 75% to 85% in virtually every race, even after he garnered enough pledged delegates to win.

Biden has been doing much better in Dem primaries, pulling in 85% to 95% in almost every contest.

I like our chances.

He got 788k votes.

Biden got 929k.

They just don't want to be so public about their support anymore. Too many of their elected officials saying the quiet part out loud.

then he would have easily beat Biden in 2020.

But remember what happened since November 2020 -

1.) January 6
2.) 1 million COVID deaths
3.) Overturning of Roe v. Wade

I wouldn't categorize 16.6% of the vote as huge.

It's not really something to get worked up over, because it's not like most of those folks are going to vote for Biden in November. The best that could be hoped for is that they sit at home come election day.

Anyway, Trump still walks with all of Pennsylvania's delegates.

And THAT is the point. Them sitting home or leaving the top of the ticket blank and us doing our GOTV means a lot.

But here is something that was pointed out upthread by quakerboy here - https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1014&pid=3230492

This "visualizes" it (snapshot from here - https://www.electionreturns.pa.gov/ which will probably change eventually)



For all the voters who voted yesterday (at least as of the last count/update) -

Based on this, 140,905 MORE (Democrats) voted for Biden than voted for 45.

If the numbers had been reversed, the media narrative would have been - "See? Democrats are not "enthusiastic" because 45 got "more votes" from his base than Biden did from his".

But what is the narrative on DU? "Why Democrats should worry.... more news at 11".

(sorry to dump as a reply to you but wanted to get the screenshot in there )

His former voters aren’t supporting him. I was told Biden is running terrific ads here in the Pittsburgh market, I haven’t seen them yet but keep them coming.

Here in Western PA it’s all about the economy, which is booming. Everyone who wants a job has their pick of jobs.

It seems like everyone has a new car. New home construction is unbelievably strong. Biden has raised wages enough that higher prices don’t matter as much, people can still afford to buy. And travel is strong. Our airport is seeing traffic at pre COVID levels.

That’s all he has to do here. Keep talking about the economy. Everyone here sees how good it is.

Casey will cruise to reelection as well.

Haley voters, and they turn on him.

And please let her know!

Large numbers of Republicans won’t vote for him. Not a majority of Republicans, but a good number.

He didn’t win the last time. He won’t win this year.